投资学10版习题答案17.docx
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投资学10版习题答案17.docx
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投资学10版习题答案17
CHAPTER17:
MACROECONOMICANDINDUSTRYANALYSIS
PROBLEMSETS
1.Expansionary(looser)monetarypolicytolowerinterestrateswouldstimulatebothinvestmentandexpendituresonconsumerdurables.Expansionaryfiscalpolicy(i.e.,lowertaxes,increasedgovernmentspending,increasedwelfaretransfers)wouldstimulateaggregatedemanddirectly.
2.AdepreciatingdollarmakesimportedcarsmoreexpensiveandAmericancarslessexpensivetoforeignconsumers.ThisshouldbenefittheU.S.autoindustry.
3.Thisexerciseislefttothestudent;answerswillvary.Successfulstudentswilllikelydiscussanindustry'sprofitability,leverage,andgrowthopportunities,especiallyinrelationtogeneralmacroeconomicconditions.
4.Atop-downapproachtosecurityvaluationbeginswithananalysisoftheglobalanddomesticeconomy.Analystswhofollowatop-downapproachthennarrowtheirattentiontoanindustryorsectorlikelytoperformwell,giventheexpectedperformanceofthebroadereconomy.Finally,theanalysisfocusesonspecificcompanieswithinanindustryorsectorthathasbeenidentifiedaslikelytoperformwell.Abottom-upapproachtypicallyemphasizesfundamentalanalysisofindividualcompanystocksandislargelybasedonthebeliefthatundervaluedstockswillperformwellregardlessoftheprospectsfortheindustryorthebroadereconomy.Themajoradvantageofthetop-downapproachisthatitprovidesastructuredapproachtoincorporatingtheimpactofeconomicandfinancialvariables,ateverylevel,intoanalysisofacompany’sstock.Onewouldexpect,forexample,thatprospectsforaparticularindustryarehighlydependentonbroadereconomicvariables.Similarly,theperformanceofanindividualcompany’sstockislikelytobegreatlyaffectedbytheprospectsfortheindustryinwhichthecompanyoperates.
5.Firmswithgreatersensitivitytobusinesscyclesareinindustriesthatproducedurableconsumergoodsorcapitalgoods.Consumersofdurablegoods(e.g.,automobiles,majorappliances)aremorelikelytopurchasetheseproductsduringaneconomicexpansionbutcanoftenpostponepurchasesduringarecession.Businesspurchasesofcapitalgoods(e.g.,purchasesofmanufacturingequipmentbyfirmsthatproducetheirownproducts)declineduringarecessionbecausedemandforthefirms’endproductsdeclinesduringarecession.
6.a.GoldMining.Goldtraditionallyisviewedasahedgeagainstinflation.Expansionarymonetarypolicymayleadtoincreasedinflationandthuscouldenhancethevalueofgoldminingstocks.
b.Construction.Expansionarymonetarypolicywillleadtolowerinterestrateswhichoughttostimulatehousingdemand.Theconstructionindustryshouldbenefit.
7.Supply-sideeconomistsbelievethatareductioninincometaxrateswillmakeworkersmorewillingtoworkatcurrentorevenslightlylower(gross-of-tax)wages.Suchaneffectoughttomitigatecostpressuresontheinflationrate.
8.a.Whenbothfiscalandmonetarypoliciesareexpansive,theyieldcurveissharplyupwardsloping(i.e.short-termratesarelowerthanlong-termrates)andtheeconomyislikelytoexpandinthefuture.
9.a.Whenwealthisredistributedthroughthegovernment’staxpolicy,economicinefficiencyiscreated.Taxpoliciesshouldpromoteeconomicgrowthasmuchaspossible.
10.a.Theroboticsprocessentailshigherfixedcostsandlowervariable(labor)costs.Therefore,thisfirmwillperformbetterinaboomandworseinarecession.Forexample,costswillriselessrapidlythanrevenuewhensalesvolumeexpandsduringaboom.
b.Becauseitsprofitsaremoresensitivetothebusinesscycle,theroboticsfirmwillhavethehigherbeta.
11.a.Housingconstruction(cyclicalbutinterest-ratesensitive):
(iii)Healthyexpansion
b.Healthcare(anoncyclicalindustry):
(i)Deeprecession
c.Goldmining(counter-cyclical):
(iv)Stagflation
d.Steelproduction(cyclicalindustry):
(ii)Superheatedeconomy
12.a.Oilwellequipment:
Relativedecline(Environmentalpressures,declineineasilydevelopednewoilfields)
b.Computerhardware:
Consolidation
c.Computersoftware:
Consolidation
d.Geneticengineering:
Start-up
e.Railroads:
Relativedecline
13.a.GeneralAutos.Pharmaceuticalsarelessofadiscretionarypurchasethanautomobiles.
b.FriendlyAirlines.Travelexpenditureismoresensitivetothebusinesscyclethanmovieconsumption.
14.Theindexofconsumerexpectationsisausefulleadingeconomicindicatorbecause,ifconsumersareoptimisticaboutthefuture,theywillbemorewillingtospendmoney,especiallyonconsumerdurables,whichwillincreaseaggregatedemandandstimulatetheeconomy.
15.Laborcostperunitisausefullaggingindicatorbecausewagestypicallystartrisingonlywellintoaneconomicexpansion.Atthebeginningofanexpansion,thereisconsiderableslackintheeconomyandoutputcanexpandwithoutemployersbiddingupthepriceofinputsorthewagesofemployees.Bythetimewagesstartincreasingduetohighdemandforlabor,theboomperiodhasalreadyprogressedconsiderably.
16.TheexpirationofthepatentmeansthatGeneralWeedkillerswillsoonfaceconsiderablygreatercompetitionfromitscompetitors.Wewouldexpectpricesandprofitmarginstofallandtotalindustrysalestoincreasesomewhataspricesdecline.Theindustrywillprobablyentertheconsolidationstageinwhichproducersareforcedtocompetemoreextensivelyonthebasisofprice.
17.a.Expectedprofit=Revenues–Fixedcosts–Variablecosts
=$120,000–$30,000–[(1/3)$120,000]=$50,000
b.
c.Ifsalesareonly$108,000,profitwillfallto:
$108,000–$30,000–[(1/3)$108,000]=$42,000
Thisisa16%declinefromtheforecastedvalue.
d.Thedecreaseinprofitis16%=DOL×10%dropinsales.
e.Profitmustdropmorethan100%toturnnegative.Forprofittofall100%,revenuemustfallby:
Therefore,revenuewouldbeonly37.5%oftheoriginalforecast.Atthislevel,revenuewillbe:
0.375$120,000=$45,000
f.Ifrevenueis$45,000,profitwillbe:
$45,000–$30,000–(1/3)$45,000=$0
18.Equitypricesarepositivelycorrelatedwithjobcreationorlongerworkweeks,aseachnewdollarearnedmeansmorewilllikelybespent.Highconfidencepresageswellforspendingandstockprices.
19.a.Stockpricesareoneoftheleadingindicators.Onepossibleexplanationisthatstockpricesanticipatefutureinterestrates,corporateearnings,anddividends.Anotherpossibleexplanationisthatstockpricesreacttochangesintheotherleadingeconomicindicators,suchaschangesinthemoneysupplyorthespreadbetweenlong-termandshort-terminterestrates.
20.a.Industrialproductionisacoincidentindicator;theothersareleading.
21.b.Ifhistoricalreturnsareused,thearithmeticandgeometricmeansofreturnsareavailable.Thegeometricmeanispreferredformultiperiodhorizonstoobservelong-termtrends.Analternativetotheequityriskpremiumistouseamovingaverageofrecenthistoricalmarketreturns.Thiswillrevealalowexpectedequityriskpremiumwhentimeshavebeenbad,whichiscontrarytoinvestorexpectations.Whenusinghistoricaldata,thereisatrade-offbetweenlongandshorttimespans.Shorttimespansarehelpfultoreducetheimpactofregimechanges.Longtimespansprovidebetterstatisticaldatathatarelesssensitive.
22.a.Foreignexchangeratescansignificantlyaffectthecompetitivenessandprofitabilityforagivenindustry.Forindustriesthatderiveasignificantproportionofsalesviaexports,anappreciatingcurrencyisusuallybadnewsbecauseitmakestheindustrylesscompetitiveoverseas.Here,theappreciatingFrenchcurrencymakesFrenchimportsmoreexpensiveinEngland.
23.Determinantsofbuyerpowerincludebuyerconcentration,buyervolume,buyerinformation,availablesubstitutes,switchingcosts,brandidentity,andproductdifferences.Point1addressesavailablesubstitutes,Point2addressesbuyerinformation,andPoint4addressesbuyervolumeandbuyerconcentration.Point3,whichaddressesthenumberofcompetitorsintheindustry,andPoint5,newentrants,maybefactualstatementsbutdonotsupporttheconclusionthatconsumershavestrongbargainingpower.
24.a.Productdifferentiationcanbebasedontheproductitself,themethodofdelivery,orthemarketingapproach.
25.Afirmwithastrategicplanningprocessnotguidedbyitsgenericcompetitivestrategyusuallymakesoneormoreofthefollowingmistakes:
1.Thestrategicplanisalistofunrelatedactionitemsthatdonotleadtoasustainablecompetitiveadvantage.
2.Priceandcostforecastsarebasedoncurrentmarketconditionsandfailtotakeintoaccounthowindustrystructurewillinfluencefuturelong-termindustryprofitability.
3.Businessunitsareplacedintocategoriessuchasbuild,hold,andharvest;withbusinessesfailingtorealizethatthesearenotbusinessstrategies,butratherthemeanstoachievethestrategy.
4.Thefirmfocusesonmarketshareasameasureofcompetitiveposition,failingtorealizethatmarketshareistheresultandnotthecauseofasustainablecompetitiveposition.
Smith’sobservations2and3describetwoofthesemistakesandthereforedonotsupporttheconclusionthattheNorthWinery’sstrategicplanningprocessisguidedandinformedbytheirgenericcompetitivestrategy.
CFAPROBLEMS
1.a.Loweringreserverequirementswouldallowbankstolendoutahigherfractionofdepositsandthusincreasethemoneysupply.
b.TheFedwouldbuyTreasurysecurities,therebyincreasingthemoneysupply.
c.Thediscountratewouldbereduced,allowingbankstoborrowadditionalfundsatalowerrate.
2.a.
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