《译言创业》word版.docx
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《译言创业》word版.docx
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《译言创业》word版
Wanttostartastartup?
GetfundedbyYCombinator.
March2012
OneofthemoresurprisingthingsI'venoticedwhileworkingonYCombinatorishowfrighteningthemostambitiousstartupideasare.InthisessayI'mgoingtodemonstratethisphenomenonbydescribingsome.Anyoneofthemcouldmakeyouabillionaire.Thatmightsoundlikeanattractiveprospect,andyetwhenIdescribetheseideasyoumaynoticeyoufindyourselfshrinkingawayfromthem.
Don'tworry,it'snotasignofweakness.Arguablyit'sasignofsanity.Thebiggeststartupideasareterrifying.Andnotjustbecausethey'dbealotofwork.Thebiggestideasseemtothreatenyouridentity:
youwonderifyou'dhaveenoughambitiontocarrythemthrough.
There'sasceneinBeingJohnMalkovichwherethenerdyheroencountersaveryattractive,sophisticatedwoman.Shesaystohim:
Here'sthething:
Ifyouevergotme,youwouldn'thaveacluewhattodowithme.
That'swhattheseideassaytous.
Thisphenomenonisoneofthemostimportantthingsyoucanunderstandaboutstartups.[1]You'dexpectbigstartupideastobeattractive,butactuallytheytendtorepelyou.Andthathasabunchofconsequences.Itmeanstheseideasareinvisibletomostpeoplewhotrytothinkofstartupideas,becausetheirsubconsciousfiltersthemout.Eventhemostambitiouspeopleareprobablybestoffapproachingthemobliquely.
1.ANewSearchEngine
Thebestideasarejustontherightsideofimpossible.Idon'tknowifthisoneispossible,buttherearesignsitmightbe.MakinganewsearchenginemeanscompetingwithGoogle,andrecentlyI'venoticedsomecracksintheirfortress.
ThepointwhenitbecamecleartomethatMicrosofthadlosttheirwaywaswhentheydecidedtogetintothesearchbusiness.ThatwasnotanaturalmoveforMicrosoft.TheydiditbecausetheywereafraidofGoogle,andGooglewasinthesearchbusiness.Butthismeant(a)GooglewasnowsettingMicrosoft'sagenda,and(b)Microsoft'sagendaconsistedofstufftheyweren'tgoodat.
Microsoft:
Google:
:
Google:
Facebook.
Thatdoesnotbyitselfmeanthere'sroomforanewsearchengine,butlatelywhenusingGooglesearchI'vefoundmyselfnostalgicfortheolddays,whenGooglewastruetoitsownslightlyaspyself.Googleusedtogivemeapageoftherightanswers,fast,withnoclutter.NowtheresultsseeminspiredbytheScientologistprinciplethatwhat'strueiswhat'strueforyou.Andthepagesdon'thavetheclean,sparsefeeltheyusedto.GooglesearchresultsusedtolookliketheoutputofaUnixutility.NowifIaccidentallyputthecursorinthewrongplace,anythingmighthappen.
Thewaytowinhereistobuildthesearchengineallthehackersuse.Asearchenginewhoseusersconsistedofthetop10,000hackersandnooneelsewouldbeinaverypowerfulpositiondespiteitssmallsize,justasGooglewaswhenitwasthatsearchengine.Andforthefirsttimeinoveradecadetheideaofswitchingseemsthinkabletome.
Sinceanyonecapableofstartingthiscompanyisoneofthose10,000hackers,therouteisatleaststraightforward:
makethesearchengineyouyourselfwant.Feelfreetomakeitexcessivelyhackerish.Makeitreallygoodforcodesearch,forexample.WouldyoulikesearchqueriestobeTuringcomplete?
Anythingthatgetsyouthose10,000usersisipsofactogood.
Don'tworryifsomethingyouwanttodowillconstrainyouinthelongterm,becauseifyoudon'tgetthatinitialcoreofusers,therewon'tbealongterm.IfyoucanjustbuildsomethingthatyouandyourfriendsgenuinelyprefertoGoogle,you'realreadyabout10%ofthewaytoanIPO,justasFacebookwas(thoughtheyprobablydidn'trealizeit)whentheygotalltheHarvardundergrads.
2.ReplaceEmail
Emailwasnotdesignedtobeusedthewayweuseitnow.Emailisnotamessagingprotocol.It'satodolist.Orrather,myinboxisatodolist,andemailisthewaythingsgetontoit.Butitisadisastrouslybadtodolist.
I'mopentodifferenttypesofsolutionstothisproblem,butIsuspectthattweakingtheinboxisnotenough,andthatemailhastobereplacedwithanewprotocol.Thisnewprotocolshouldbeatodolistprotocol,notamessagingprotocol,althoughthereisadegeneratecasewherewhatsomeonewantsyoutodois:
readthefollowingtext.
Asatodolistprotocol,thenewprotocolshouldgivemorepowertotherecipientthanemaildoes.Iwanttheretobemorerestrictionsonwhatsomeonecanputonmytodolist.Andwhensomeonecanputsomethingonmytodolist,Iwantthemtotellmemoreaboutwhattheywantfromme.Dotheywantmetodosomethingbeyondjustreadingsometext?
Howimportantisit?
(Thereobviouslyhastobesomemechanismtopreventpeoplefromsayingeverythingisimportant.)Whendoesithavetobedone?
Thisisoneofthoseideasthat'slikeanirresistibleforcemeetinganimmovableobject.Ononehand,entrenchedprotocolsareimpossibletoreplace.Ontheother,itseemsunlikelythatpeoplein100yearswillstillbelivinginthesameemailhellwedonow.Andifemailisgoingtogetreplacedeventually,whynotnow?
Ifyoudoitright,youmaybeabletoavoidtheusualchickenandeggproblemnewprotocolsface,becausesomeofthemostpowerfulpeopleintheworldwillbeamongthefirsttoswitchtoit.They'reallatthemercyofemailtoo.
Whateveryoubuild,makeitfast.GMailhasbecomepainfullyslow.[2]IfyoumadesomethingnobetterthanGMail,butfast,thatalonewouldletyoustarttopullusersawayfromGMail.
GMailisslowbecauseGooglecan'taffordtospendalotonit.Butpeoplewillpayforthis.I'dhavenoproblempaying$50amonth.ConsideringhowmuchtimeIspendinemail,it'skindofscarytothinkhowmuchI'dbejustifiedinpaying.Atleast$1000amonth.IfIspendseveralhoursadayreadingandwritingemail,thatwouldbeacheapwaytomakemylifebetter.
3.ReplaceUniversities
Peoplearealloverthisidealately,andIthinkthey'reontosomething.I'mreluctanttosuggestthataninstitutionthat'sbeenaroundforamillenniumisfinishedjustbecauseofsomemistakestheymadeinthelastfewdecades,butcertainlyinthelastfewdecadesUSuniversitiesseemtohavebeenheadeddownthewrongpath.Onecoulddoalotbetterforalotlessmoney.
Idon'tthinkuniversitieswilldisappear.Theywon'tbereplacedwholesale.They'lljustlosethedefactomonopolyoncertaintypesoflearningthattheyoncehad.Therewillbemanydifferentwaystolearndifferentthings,andsomemaylookquitedifferentfromuniversities.YCombinatoritselfisarguablyoneofthem.
Learningissuchabigproblemthatchangingthewaypeopledoitwillhaveawaveofsecondaryeffects.Forexample,thenameoftheuniversityonewenttoistreatedbyalotofpeople(correctlyornot)asacredentialinitsownright.Iflearningbreaksupintomanylittlepieces,credentiallingmayseparatefromit.Theremayevenneedtobereplacementsforcampussociallife(andoddlyenough,YCevenhasaspectsofthat).
Youcouldreplacehighschoolstoo,butthereyoufacebureaucraticobstaclesthatwouldslowdownastartup.Universitiesseemtheplacetostart.
4.InternetDrama
HollywoodhasbeenslowtoembracetheInternet.Thatwasamistake,becauseIthinkwecannowcallawinnerintheracebetweendeliverymechanisms,anditistheInternet,notcable.
Alotofthereasonisthehorriblenessofcableclients,alsoknownasTVs.Ourfamilydidn'twaitforAppleTV.WehatedourlastTVsomuchthatafewmonthsagowereplaceditwithaniMacboltedtothewall.It'salittleinconvenienttocontrolitwithawirelessmouse,buttheoverallexperienceismuchbetterthanthenightmareUIwehadtodealwithbefore.
SomeoftheattentionpeoplecurrentlydevotetowatchingmoviesandTVcanbestolenbythingsthatseemcompletelyunrelated,likesocialnetworkingapps.Morecanbestolenbythingsthatarealittlemorecloselyrelated,likegames.Buttherewillprobablyalwaysremainsomeresidualdemandforconventionaldrama,whereyousitpassivelyandwatchasaplothappens.SohowdoyoudeliverdramaviatheInternet?
WhateveryoumakewillhavetobeonalargerscalethanYoutubeclips.Whenpeoplesitdowntowatchashow,theywanttoknowwhatthey'regoingtoget:
eitherpartofaserieswithfamiliarcharacters,orasinglelonger"movie"whosebasicpremisetheyknowinadvance.
Therearetwowaysdeliveryandpaymentcouldplayout.EithersomecompanylikeNetflixorApplewillbetheappstoreforentertainment,andyou'llreachaudiencesthroughthem.Orthewould-beappstoreswillbetoooverreaching,ortootechnicallyinflexible,andcompanieswillarisetosupplypaymentandstreamingalacartetotheproducersofdrama.Ifthat'sthewaythingsplayout,therewillalsobeaneedforsuchinfrastructurecompanies.
5.TheNextSteveJobs
IwastalkingrecentlytosomeonewhoknewApplewell,andIaskedhimifthepeoplenowrunningthecompanywouldbeabletokeepcreatingnewthingsthewayApplehadunderSteveJobs.Hisanswerwassimply"no."Ialreadyfearedthatwouldbetheanswer.Iaskedmoretoseehowhe'dqualifyit.Buthedidn'tqualifyitatall.No,therewillbenomoregreatnewstuffbeyondwhatever'scurrentlyinthepipeline.Apple'srevenuesmaycontinuetoriseforalongtime,butasMicrosoftshows,revenueisalaggingindicatorinthetechnologybusiness.
SoifApple'snotgoingtomakethenextiPad,whois?
Noneoftheexistingplayers.Noneofthemarerunbyproductvisionaries,andempiricallyyoucan'tseemtogetthosebyhiringthem.EmpiricallythewayyougetaproductvisionaryasCEOisforhimtofoundthecompanyandnotgetfired.Sothecompanythatcreatest
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