March 20.docx
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March 20.docx
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March20
Settlethedispute
March20,2012,6:
00am
TheOriginofModernRepublicanFiscalPolicy
ByBRUCEBARTLETT
BruceBartlettheldseniorpolicyrolesintheReaganandGeorgeH.W.BushadministrationsandservedonthestaffsofRepresentativesJackKempandRonPaul.Heistheauthorof“TheBenefitandtheBurden:
TaxReform—WhyWeNeedItandWhatItWillTake.”HealsotalkswithCatherineRampellaboutthispostontoday’sBusinessDayLivevideo.
In1976,thejournalistJudeWanniskiwroteanessay,“TaxesandaTwo-SantaTheory,”littlenoticedatthetimeandvirtuallyunknowntoday,thatputforwardatheorythathashadextraordinaryinfluenceontheRepublicanParty.Indeed,virtuallyeverythingRepublicanssayabouttaxesandspendingtodayechoesthattheory.
Today’sEconomist
Perspectivesfromexpertcontributors.
In1974,Mr.WanniskiattendedaconferencesponsoredbytheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteinWashington.OnespeakerwasRobertMundell,whohadworkedwiththeconferenceorganizer,ArthurLaffer.
Inhisconferencepaper,ProfessorMundellfirstarticulatedwhatcametobecalled“supply-sideeconomics.”Hesaidthemainstreameconomicview,basedonthetheoriesofJohnMaynardKeynes,wasallwrong.Keynesiansadvocatedeasymoneytostimulategrowthandatightfiscalpolicytofightinflation.
Thiswastheexactoppositeofwhatwasnecessary,ProfessorMundellsaid.Headvocatedatightmoneypolicytofightinflationandtax-ratereductionstostimulategrowth.
Mr.Wanniskiwroteacommentary,“It’sTimetoCutTaxes,”aboutProfessorMundell’sviewthatwaspublishedinTheWallStreetJournalonDec.11,1974.Hewroteamuchlongerdescriptionofsupply-sideeconomics,“TheMundell-LafferHypothesis—ANewViewoftheWorld,”tha
Itwaspublishedinthespring1975issueofThePublicInterest,anacademicjournaleditedbyIrvingKristol.
Mr.Wanniski’smostimportantcontributiontotheemergingsupply-sidephilosophy,however,washis“Two-Santas”article,publishedinTheNationalObserveronMarch6,1976.TheObserverwasaweeklypublishedbyDowJonesthatfoldedin1977;consequently,ithasbeenprettymuchforgotten.(Thearticledoesn’tevenappearamongthearchivesofMr.Wanniski’sworkatthePolyconomicsWebsite;IretypeditmyselffromareprintJackKempusedtohandoutwhenIworkedforhim,andIpostedithere.)
TheessenceoftheWanniskiargumentwasthateachpoliticalpartyneededtobeadifferentsortofSantaClaus.TheDemocratswerethespendingSantaClaus,promisingmoregovernmentbenefits.TheRepublicansshouldbethetax-cutSantaClaus,hesaid.
Manyofthenation’sproblemsin1976stemmedfromtheunwillingnessofRepublicanstoplaythatproperrole.Insteadofbeingthetax-cutSanta,theyhadbecomethepartyoffiscalausterity.Thebalancedbudgetwasthesinequanon先决条件?
ofRepublicaneconomicpolicy.Thiswasbothbadeconomicsandbadpolitics,Mr.Wanniskisaid.
Insteadofworryingaboutthedeficit,hesaid,Republicansshouldjustcuttaxesandpushforfastergrowth,whichwouldmakethedebtmorebearable.
Mr.Kristol,whowasverywellconnectedtoRepublicanleaders,quicklysawthepoliticalvirtueinMr.Wanniski’stheory.Intheintroductiontohis1995book,“Neoconservatism新保守主义:
TheAutobiographyofanIdea,”Mr.Kristolexplainedhowitaffectedhisthinking:
Iwasnotcertainofitseconomicmeritsbutquicklysawitspoliticalpossibilities.TorefocusRepublicanconservativethoughtontheeconomicsofgrowthratherthansimplyontheeconomicsofstabilityseemedtomeverypromising.Republicaneconomicswasthenintruthadismalscience,explainingtothepopulace,parent-like,whythegoodthingsinlifethattheywantedwerealltooexpensive.
Republicansdidn’timmediatelyembracethetwo-Santatheory,butbegantoafterRonaldReagan’svictoryin1980,whenheranmainlyinfavorofabigtaxcut,withfarlessemphasisondeficitreduction.Inoffice,Reaganpushedfordomesticspendingcutsbutalsosharplyraisedspendingforfavoredprogramssuchasthemilitary.
Althoughthebudgetdeficitroseto6percentofgrossdomesticproductin1983from2.7percentin1980,Reaganeasilywonre-electionin1984.ThisfurtherconvincedRepublicansthatthedeficitwasalosingissueandonlytaxcutsmatteredforpoliticalsuccess.
ThefinalstrawwasGeorgeH.W.Bush’ssupportforataxincreasein1990toreducethedeficit,whichmanyRepublicanssaysealedhisdefeatin1992byBillClinton.
Sincethen,fealtytotaxcutsandlipservicetodeficitshasbecomeRepublicandogma.
AmongitsenforcersisGroverNorquistofAmericansforTaxReform,whichmakessupportfortaxcutsandoppositiontotaxincreasesalitmustestforallRepublicans.
InTheBostonGlobe’sSundaymagazinethisweek,Mr.NorquistexplainsthathisfamoustaxpledgeowesmuchtoMr.Wanniski’stwo-Santatheory.Indeed,Mr.Norquistsaidhethoughtofthesameideahimselfwhenhewasintheseventhgrade.(Luan’scomment:
Suchageniusatsuchayoungage!
)
IworkedforMr.Wanniskiinthemid-1980sandknowthathewasn’tobsessiveaboutneverraisingtaxes.Hewantedeconomicgrowthandthoughttax-ratereductionswerethebestwaytoachieveit,atleastinthe1970s.Butifhighertaxeswouldraisegrowth,thenhewouldsupportthem.Asheexplainedinane-mailtoBenBernanke,atthetimethechairmanofthepresident’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,onAug.11,2005(onwhichIwascopied):
Iforoneamalwaysreadytolistentoargumentsforhighertaxes,moreregulationandrestraintsonfreemarkets,asImightbepersuadedthatundercertaincircumstancestheywould“invite,”not“stimulate”(aKeynesianidea),long-termgrowth.I’mnot“anti-government,”inotherwords.(TheGroverNorquistideaofopposingalltaxincreasesisdumb,andGroverknowsIbelievethat.)
Unfortunately,Mr.WanniskiopenedPandora’sboxwhenheletloosethetwo-Santatheory.Republicansarenowboundtoit,whethertheyknowitornot.AsKeynesonceputit,“Madmeninauthority,whohearvoicesintheair,aredistillingtheirfrenzyfromsomeacademicscribblerofafewyearsback.”
March20,2012
SharesFallonConcernsofaSlowdowninChina
ByBLOOMBERGNEWS
StocksdeclinedonTuesday,endingathree-dayadvancefortheStandard&Poor’s500-stockindex,ascommoditiesfellonconcernaboutaChineseeconomicslowdown.
IndustrialandcommoditysharesslumpedasChinaraisedfuelpricesbythemostintwoyearsandBHPBillitonsaidthenation’ssteelproductionwasslowing.CaterpillarandAlcoadroppedmorethan1.5percent.AdobeSystemssank3.9percentasitsprofitforecastmissedsomeestimates.BankofAmericajumped2.9percent.Tiffanysurged6.7percentafterforecastingprofitthatbeatprojections.
TheStandard&Poor’s500-stockindexretreated4.23points,0.30percent,to1,405.52,afteradvancingonMondaytothehighestlevelsinceMay2008.TheDowJonesindustrialaveragedeclined68.94points,or0.52percent,to13,170.19.TheNasdaqcompositeindexfell4.17points,or0.14percent,to3,074.15.
“AChineseslowdownisinevitable,”PeterJankovskis,aninvestmentmanageratOakBrookInvestmentsinLisle,Ill.,said.“It’spossiblethatwilltakesomeoftheheatoutofcommodities.YetChinaisnottheonlygrowthstoryoutthere.Chinawillcontinuetobeanimportantplayer,buttheU.S.economyseemstohavefounditslegs.”
GolddeclinedforthesecondtimeinthreesessionsonconcernthatdemandwilldropinIndiaandChina,theworld’sbiggestbuyers.Silveralsoretreated.
Chinamayreducepurchasesastheeconomyslowsandfuelcostsrise,accordingtoFrankLesh,atraderatFuturePathTradinginChicago.
EquitiesfellasChinaraisedfuelpricesforthesecondtimeinlessthansixweeks.Thenation’svehiclesalesmaymissindustryforecaststhisyearaseconomicgrowthslows,anofficialfromtheChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturerssaid.BHPBilliton,theminingcompany,saidChina’ssteelproductionwasslowing.IntheUnitedStateshousingstartshoveredinFebruarynearathree-yearhigh.
CompaniesmostdependentoneconomicgrowthhadthebiggestdeclinesintheS.&P.500.TheDowJonestransportationaverageretreated1.3percent.AgaugeofhomebuildersinS.&P.indexesdropped1percentas10ofits11stocksfell.
MeasuresofindustrialandcommoditysharesintheS.&P.500droppedmorethan0.5percent.Caterpillarslumped2.61percent,to$110.76.Alcoaslid1.51percent,to$10.44.PeabodyEnergy,thebiggestcoalproducerintheUnitedStates,declined5.38percent,to$31.64.
Adobesank3.91percent,to$33.16.Excludingsomecosts,profitwillbe57to61centsashareinthesecondquarter,Adobesaid.Themidpointofthatrange,59cents,missedthe60centspredictedbyanalysts,accordingtodatacompiledbyBloomberg.
WaltDisneydropped0.46percent,to$43.24.Thecompanysaidthebox-officedisappointment“JohnCarter”willpostalossofabout$200million.
ArallyinfinancialcompanieshelpedtheS.&P.500trimadeclineofasmuchas0.9percent.TheKBWBankIndexadded0.4percent.BankofAmericarallied2.94percent,themostintheDow,to$9.81.MorganStanleygained1.74percent,to$20.41.
TheJefferiesGroupclimbed2.26percent,to$19.49.Thecompanyreportedaprofitdeclinethatwassmallerthananalystsestimatedasnetrevenueclimbedtoarecord.
Tiffanysurged6.68percent,to$73.27.Thecompanyisbenefitingfromstock-marketgainsthathavepromptedluxuryconsumerstoresumejewelrypurchases,aturnaboutfromJanuary,whentheretailersaidweakspendingbycustomersintheUnitedStateshadslowedholidaysales.
Appleadded0.81percent,toarecord$605.96.
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