特朗普经济学与中美贸易失衡外文文献翻译.docx
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特朗普经济学与中美贸易失衡外文文献翻译.docx
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特朗普经济学与中美贸易失衡外文文献翻译
特朗普经济学与中美贸易失衡中英文
英文
TrumpeconomicsandChina–UStradeimbalances
JustinYifuLin
1. Introduction
ThetradedeficitoftheUnitesStates,asshownin Fig,expandedfromaroundzerobeforemid-1970stopeakin2006at$761billion,whichwasaround5%oftheUSGDP.Thetradedeficitofgoodswasevenlarger,peakingat$837billionin2006.Thoughthisvaluedecreasedafterthe2008globalfinancialcrisis,itwasstillataremarkablyhighlevelas$752billionin2016. ThetradeimbalancesbetweenUSandJapanandotherindustrializedeconomiescontributedmosttotherisingUStradedeficitsbeforethe1980s,whileinrecentyearstheUSrunsdeficitsmainlyagainstemergingAsianeconomiesandoil-producingeconomies.PresidentTrumparguesthattheUStradedeficitwascausedbyunfavorabletradeagreementsagainsttheUSandpledgestoeliminatethembybilateralrenegotiationsorunilateralactions.
TheUS–ChinatradeimbalancehasbeenaprimeconcernofPresidentTrumpeversincehiselectioncampaignin2015.TheofficialdataprovidedbytheUSCensusBureaushowsthatChina,theemergingmajorplayerintheprocessofglobalization,hasbeenrunningatradesurpluswiththeUSsince1984.China’stradebalancewiththeUSincreasedfromatradesurplusof$0.06billionin1985toatradesurplusof$347.02billionin2016,whichrepresented44%ofUStradedeficitinthatyear.ThislargeimbalancehascausedconsiderablepressureontheUS–Chinatraderelations.OnemajorconcernistheimpactsofimportsfromChinaonUSdomesticemployment.Onehighlycitedworkby Autor,Dorn,andHanson(2013) showsthattheexposuretoimportsfromChinahadnegativeimpactsonUS’smanufacturingemployment.PresidentTrumppledgedinhiselectioncampaigntoimpose45%bordertaxonimportsfromChinaasameasuretoreducetheUS–ChinatradeimbalancesandtoretainjobsintheUS.
WouldimposingdraconiantariffsonimportsfromChinahelpreduceUStotaltradedeficit?
WouldthereductionofUStradedeficitwithChinabringmanufacturingjobsbacktotheUS?
Theanswertothesequestionsdependsonwhatcausethepersistenttradeimbalances.
ThecausesofrisingUStradedeficithavebeendiscussedintensively.Existingliteratureprovidestheoreticalandempiricalsupportforseveralkeyfactors,suchasthelackofinvestmentopportunitiesinemergingeconomies,undervaluedexchangeratesagainsttheUSdollartothecurrenciesofseveralemergingeconomies,theincreaseinthepriceoftheprimarycommoditiesandtheover-consumptioncausedbyfinancialderegulationandsupportedbyUSdollarasamajorglobalreservecurrency.
ThispaperfocusesspecificallyontradeimbalancesbetweentheUSandChinaandinvestigateshowChina’s comparativeadvantage inthelabor-intensivemanufacturingactivities,combinedwiththeglobalproductionsharingacrosseconomieswithChinaastheassemblyhub,worksasthemajorsourceoftheincreasingbilateraltradeimbalancesbetweenUSandChina.Inparticular,thispaperfirstanalyzesthebilateraltradepatternsbetweenUSanditsmaintradingpartnersandfindsthatEastAsiaistraditionallythemainsourceofUS’stradedeficits.ThepaperfurtherfindsadecliningshareofUS–EastAsiatradeimbalancesinUStotaltradedeficitduringtheperiodwhentheUS–Chinatradeimbalanceswasrising.ItalsorevealsnegativecorrelationbetweenUStradedeficitwithChinaandChinawithsomeotherEastAsianeconomies.Basedonthesefindings,ourpaperattributesthesharpincreaseinUS–Chinatradeimbalancestothereallocationoflabor-intensiveproductionactivitiesfromJapanandAsiannewlyindustrializedeconomies(NIEs),namelySouthKorea,Singapore,HongKong,Taiwan,China,toChina,epitomizedbytheUS’sdramaticexpansionofoveralltradedeficit.
TheUS–ChinatradeimbalanceswerealsoexacerbatedbytheproductionsharingacrossbordersinEastAsiawithChinaastheassemblyhub.Agrowingstrandofliteratureconsidersthevalue-addedcontentsasanindicatorforinternationalproductionfragmentationandamoreobjectiveassessmentoftherelativedistributionofeconomicbenefitsfromtradebetweentwotradingpartnereconomies(Daudin,Rifflart,&Schweisguth,2011; Hummels,Ishii,&Yi,2001; Johnson&Noguera,2012).Theideaofvalue-addedcontentsoftradeisbasedonmodelsofsequentialmulti-stageproductionwithstagessplitacrosseconomies.Withflowsoffinalproductsandintermediatesco-existing,productionfragmentationacrosseconomiesgeneratesdiscrepancybetweengrossandvalue-addedtradeflows.Traditionally,thefocusofpublicinterestisonthebilateraltradebalance.However,withtradeflowsofintermediatesacrosseconomies,thevalueofgrossexportsmightoverestimatethedomesticeconomicbenefitsofexportstotheexportingcountryandignorestheindirectimpactsfromothereconomies.Therefore,inadditiontothebilateraltradebalance,thispapercarefullydiscussespatternsofbilateraltradeflowsmeasuredinvalue-addedcontents,withdatain JohnsonandNoguera(2012) and Johnson(2014).
Moreover,giventhatthedifferenceincomparativeadvantagesacrosseconomiesisoneofthemainincentivesofglobalproductionsharing,thispaperexaminesthebilateraltradebalancesatthesectorlevel.TheresultsshowthatonlyinsectorsthatChinahascomparativeadvantagesthereispersistentbilateraltradeimbalancebetweenChinaandUS.Inaddition,othereconomiesthathaslowlaborcostssharethesametradepatternasthatofChina.WearguethattherootofUStradedeficitisnotChina’s exchangeratepolicy andothertrademanipulationsasPresidentTrumppledged.Therefore,raising tradebarriers forChina’simportstotheUSwillnothelpmitigatetheUStotaltradedeficits.
Thispaperisorganizedasfollows.InSection 2,wereviewseveralexplanationsforUStradedeficits.Sector 3 presentsthecurrentstatusofthetotalUS–Chinatradeimbalances,andwefurtherexamineitsdomesticvalue-addedcontentsinSection 4.InSection 5 weconductouranalysisbysectorsandapplytheanalysistoothereconomies.WealsodiscusstheevolutionofChina’scomparativeadvantagesinthe low-wage laborintensivesector.Section 6 concludes.
2. MainexplanationsforUStradedeficitsinexistingliterature
ThecausesofUStradedeficitshavebeenextensivelydiscussed.Inthissection,wewillreviewseveralmainstrandsofexistingliterature.Thefirststrandofliteratureconsidersthetradeimbalancesastheresultsofeconomicdistortionsratherthanan“equilibrium”phenomenon.Therefore,thetradeimbalancescouldonlyberesolvedwithpolicyadjustments.Forexample,aseriespapersby ObstfeldandRogoff,2000, ObstfeldandRogoff,2005 and Rogoff(2006) discussthechangesinexchangeratethatarerequiredtoreducetheimbalances.
Thesecondstrandofliteratureconsideringglobalimbalancesasan“equilibrium”condition,markedwiththehypothesisofaglobal“saving-glut”proposedby Bernanke(2005).Differentexplanationsofthe“savingglut”havebeenraised. Caballero,Farhi,andGourinchas(2008),forexample,developsamodelwithheterogeneityacrosseconomiesintheirabilitytosupplysafeassets. Mendoza,Quadrini,andRios-Rull(2009) alsofocusesonthedifferentlevelsoffinancialdevelopment,butemphasizesheterogeneityinthedemandofassetsandtheirmodelpredictsincreasedfinancialintegrationraisesforeigndemandforUSassets.FogliandPerri(2010)exploretheimpactsoftimevaryingmacrorisk,whileseveralpapersconsiderdemographicheterogeneityasonereasonfortheemergenceofexternalimbalances,suchas Henriksen(2002), Cooper(2008),and DuandWei(2010).
OtherexplanationsforglobalimbalancesincludetheanticipationofarisingU.S.futureshareinworldoutput,tradechannels,productivitygrowthinthenon-tradedsector,measurementerror,theassetpriceboomofthelatenineties(Laibson&Mollerstrom,2010),etc.
Inotherstudy, Lin(2013) hasreviewedtheaboveexplanationsandarguedthatthedeteriorationofUStradedeficitsafterthemid-1970siscausedprimarilybytheUShousehold’soverconsumptionasaresultofthewealtheffectfromrisingassetvalueduetofinancialderegulationandtheexpansionary monetarypolicy,whichinturnweremadepossiblebythedelinkofUSdollartogoldin1971.Moreover,theonlyreasonfortheUStobeabletosustainsuchalargeandrisingtradedeficitsforseveraldecadesisthestatusofUSdollarasamajorglobalreservecurrency.
InthispaperwefocusparticularlyontheUS–Chinatradeimbalances.UnlikethecasesinwhicheconomicreasonsareemployedtoexplainUStradedeficitwithJapanandtheoilexportingeconomies,ChinaandotherEastAsianeconomieshavebeenblamed,bysomeresearchersandpoliticians,tomanipulatetheexchangeratetopromotenetexportsandusethisasthemaincomponentsof export-ledgrowthdevelopmentstrategy.Inthispaper,wewillshowthattheUStraditionallyhasatradedeficitwiththeEastAsianeconomiesduetothedifferencesin comparativeadvantages betweentheUSandEastAsianeconomiesandtherisingbilateraltradeimbalancesbetweentheUSandChinaisaresultofreallocationofproductionfromAsia’sNIEstoChinaduetotheevolutionofcomparativeadvantagesovertime.TheUShastradeimbalancewithEastAsianeconomiestraditionally.WhileChina’stradeimbalancewithUSincreasedsharplyafterthe1990s,theshareofUS’stradeimbalancewithEastAsianeconomiesasagroupdeclinedinthesameperiod.ThefactssuggestthattheUS’sworseningoftradedeficitsingeneralandtradeimbalancewithChinainspecificaremostlikelytobearesultofUS’sowninternalreasons.
3. CurrentstatusofUS–Ch
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- 特朗普 经济学 中美 贸易 失衡 外文 文献 翻译