克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16.docx
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克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16.docx
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克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16
Chapter16
OutputandtheExchangeRate
intheShortRun
1 ChapterOrganization
DeterminantsofAggregateDemandinanOpenEconomy
DeterminantsofConsumptionDemand
DeterminantsoftheCurrentAccount
HowRealExchangeRateChangesAffecttheCurrentAccount
HowDisposableIncomeChangesAffecttheCurrentAccount
TheEquationofAggregateDemand
TheRealExchangeRateandAggregateDemand
RealIncomeandAggregateDemand
HowOutputisDeterminedintheShortRun
OutputMarketEquilibriumintheShortRun:
TheDDSchedule
Output,theExchangeRate,andOutputMarketEquilibrium
DerivingtheDDSchedule
FactorsthatShifttheDDSchedule
AssetMarketEquilibriumintheShortRun:
TheAASchedule
Output,theExchangeRate,andAssetMarketEquilibrium
DerivingtheAASchedule
FactorsthatShifttheAASchedule
Short-RunEquilibriumfortheEconomy:
PuttingtheDDandAASchedulesTogether
TemporaryChangesinMonetaryandFiscalPolicy
MonetaryPolicy
FiscalPolicy
PoliciestoMaintainFullEmployment
InflationBiasandOtherProblemsofPolicyFormulation
PermanentShiftsinMonetaryandFiscalPolicy
APermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupply
AdjustmenttoaPermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupply
APermanentFiscalExpansion
MacroeconomicPoliciesandtheCurrentAccount
GradualTradeAdjustmentandCurrentAccountDynamics
TheJ-Curve
Exchange-RatePass-ThroughandInflation
Box:
ExchangeRatesandtheCurrentAccount
Summary
AppendixI:
IntertemporalTradeandConsumptionDemand
AppendixII:
TheMarshall-LernerConditionandEmpiricalEstimatesofTradeElasticities
OnlineAppendix:
TheIS-LMandtheDD-AAModel
2 ChapterOverview
Thischapterintegratesthepreviousanalysisofexchangeratedeterminationwithamodelofshort-runoutputdeterminationinanopeneconomy.ThemodelpresentedissimilarinspirittotheclassicMundell-Flemingmodel,butthediscussiongoesbeyondthestandardpresentationinitscontrastoftheeffectsoftemporaryversuspermanentpolicies.Thedistinctionbetweentemporaryandpermanentpoliciesallowsforananalysisofdynamicpathsofadjustmentratherthanjustcomparativestatics.ThisdynamicanalysisbringsinthepossibilityofaJ-curveresponseofthecurrentaccounttocurrencydepreciation.Thechapterconcludeswithadiscussionofexchange-ratepass-through,thatis,theresponseofimportpricestoexchangeratemovements.
Thechapterbeginswiththedevelopmentofanopen-economyfixed-pricemodel(anonlineAppendixdiscussestherelationshipbetweentheIS-LMmodelandtheanalysisinthischapter).AnaggregatedemandfunctionisderivedusingaKeynesian-crossdiagraminwhichtherealexchangerateservesasashiftparameter.Anominalcurrencydepreciationincreasesoutputbystimulatingexportsandreducingimports,givenforeignanddomesticprices,fiscalpolicy,andinvestmentlevels.Thisyieldsapositivelyslopedoutput-marketequilibrium(DD)scheduleinexchangerate-outputspace.Anegativelyslopedasset-marketequilibrium(AA)schedulecompletesthemodel.Thederivationofthisschedulefollowsfromtheanalysisofpreviouschapters.Forstudentswhohavealreadytakenintermediatemacroeconomics,youmaywanttopointoutthattheintuitionbehindtheslopeoftheAAcurveisidenticaltothatoftheLMcurve,withtheadditionalrelationshipofinterestparityprovidingthelinkbetweentheclosed-economyLMcurveandtheopen-economyAAcurve.AswiththeLMcurve,higherincomeincreasesmoneydemandandraisesthehome-currencyinterestrate(givenrealbalances).Inanopeneconomy,higherinterestratesrequirecurrencyappreciationtosatisfyinterestparity(foragivenfutureexpectedexchangerate).
Theeffectsoftemporarypoliciesaswellastheshort-runandlong-runeffectsofpermanentpoliciescanbestudiedinthecontextoftheDD-AAmodelifweidentifytheexpectedfutureexchangeratewiththelong-runexchangerateexaminedinChapters14and15.Inlinewiththisinterpretation,temporarypoliciesaredefinedtobethosewhichleavetheexpectedexchangerateunchanged,whilepermanentpoliciesarethosewhichmovetheexpectedexchangeratetoitsnewlong-runlevel.Asintheanalysisinearlierchapters,inthelong-run,priceschangetoclearmarkets(ifnecessary).Whiletheassumptionsconcerningtheexpectationaleffectsoftemporaryandpermanentpoliciesareunrealisticasanexactdescriptionofaneconomy,theyarepedagogicallyusefulbecausetheyallowstudentstograsphowdifferingmarketexpectationsaboutthedurationofpoliciescanaltertheirqualitativeeffects.Studentsmayfindthedistinctionbetweentemporaryandpermanent,ontheonehand,andbetweenshortrunandlongrun,ontheother,abitconfusingatfirst.Itisprobablyworthwhiletospendafewminutesdiscussingthistopic.
Bothtemporaryandpermanentincreasesinmoneysupplyexpandoutputintheshortrunthroughexchangeratedepreciation.Thelong-runanalysisofapermanentmonetarychangeonceagainshowshowthewell-knownDornbuschovershootingresultcanoccur.Temporaryexpansionaryfiscalpolicyraisesoutputintheshortrunandcausestheexchangeratetoappreciate.Permanentfiscalexpansion,however,hasnoeffectonoutputevenintheshortrun.Thereasonforthisisthat,giventheassumptionsofthemodel,thecurrencyappreciationinresponsetopermanentfiscalexpansioncompletely“crowdsout”exports.Thisisaconsequenceoftheeffectofapermanentfiscalexpansionontheexpectedlong-runexchangeratewhichshiftsinwardtheasset-marketequilibriumcurve.ThismodelcanbeusedtoexplaintheconsequencesofU.S.fiscalandmonetarypolicybetween1979and1984.Themodelexplainstherecessionof1982andtheappreciationofthedollarasaresultoftightmonetaryandloosefiscalpolicy.
Thechapterconcludeswithsomediscussionofreal-worldmodificationsofthebasicmodel.Recentexperiencecastsdoubtonatight,unvaryingrelationshipbetweenmovementsinthenominalexchangerateandshiftsincompetitivenessandthusbetweennominalexchangeratemovementsandmovementsinthetradebalanceasdepictedintheDD-AAmodel.Exchange-ratepass-throughislessthancompleteandthusnominalexchangeratemovementsarenottranslatedone-for-oneintochangesintherealexchangerate.Also,thecurrentaccountmayworsenimmediatelyaftercurrencydepreciation.ThisJ-curveeffectoccursbecauseoftimelagsindeliveriesandbecauseoflowelasticitiesofdemandintheshortrunascomparedtothelongrun.Thechaptercontainsadiscussionofthewayinwhichtheanalysisofthemodelwouldbeaffectedbytheinclusionofincompleteexchange-ratepass-throughandtime-varyingelasticities.AppendixIIprovidesfurtherinformationontradeelasticitieswithapresentationoftheMarshall-Lernerconditionsandareportingofestimatesoftheimpact,short-runandlong-runelasticitiesofdemandforinternationaltradeinmanufacturedgoodsforanumberofcountries.
3 AnswerstoTextbookProblems
1.Adeclineininvestmentdemanddecreasesthelevelofaggregatedemandforanyleveloftheexchangerate.Thus,adeclineininvestmentdemandcausestheDDcurvetoshifttotheleft.
2.Atariffisataxontheconsumptionofimports.Thedemandfordomesticgoods,andthusthelevel
ofaggregatedemand,willbehigherforanyleveloftheexchangerate.ThisisdepictedinFigure16.1asarightwardshiftintheoutputmarketschedulefromDDtoDD.Ifthetariffistemporary,this
istheonlyeffect,andoutputwillriseeventhoughtheexchangerateappreciatesastheeconomy
movesfromPoints0to1.Ifthetariffispermanent,however,thelong-runexpectedexchangerateappreciates,sotheassetmarketscheduleshiftstoAA.Theappreciationofthecurrencyissharper
inthiscase.Ifoutputisinitiallyatfullemployment,thenthereisnochangeinoutputduetoapermanenttariff.
Figure16.1
3.Atemporaryfiscalpolicyshiftaffectsemploymentandoutput,evenifthegovernmentmaintainsabalancedbudget.Anintuitiveexplanationforthisreliesuponthedifferentpropensitiestoconsume
ofthegovernmentandoftaxpayers.Ifthegovernmentspends$1moreandfinancesthisspending
bytaxingthepublic$1more,aggregatedemandwillhaverisenbecausethegovernmentspendstheentire$1,whilethepublicreducesitsspendingbylessthan$1(choosingtoreduceitssavingaswellasitsconsumption).Theultimateeffectonaggregatedemandisevenlargerthanthisfirstrounddifferencebetweengovernmentandpublicspendingpropensities,sincethefirstroundgeneratessubsequentspending.(Ofcourse,currencyappreciationstillpreventspermanentfiscalshiftsfromaffectingoutputinourmodel.)
4.ApermanentfallinprivateaggregatedemandcausestheDDcurvetoshiftinwardandtotheleftand,becausetheexpectedfutureexchangeratedepreciates,theAAcurveshiftsoutwardandtotheright.Thesetwoshiftsresultinnoeffectonoutput,however,forthesamereasonthatapermanentfiscalexpansionhasnoeffectonoutput.Theneteffectisadepreciationinthenominalexchangerateand,becausepriceswillnotchange,acorrespondingrealexchangeratedepreciation.Amacroeconomicpolicyresponsetothiseventwouldnotbewarranted.
5.Figure16.2canbeusedtoshowthatanypermanentfiscalexpansionworsensthecurrentaccount.
Inthisdiagram,thescheduleXXrepresentscombinationsoftheexchangerateandincomeforwhichthecurrentaccountisinbalance.PointsaboveandtotheleftofXXrepresentcurrentaccountsurplus,andpointsbelowandtotherightrepresentcurrentaccountdeficit.Apermanentfiscalex
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