创造财富企业财务战略与决策外文翻译Word文档下载推荐.docx
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创造财富企业财务战略与决策外文翻译Word文档下载推荐.docx
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原文:
CreatingWealth
CorporateFinancialStrategyandDecisionMaking
CorporateFinancialStrategicPlanning
HerbertSimonhaswrittenthatthereisaGresham’slawofplanning:
“Programmedactivitytendstodriveoutnonprogrammedactivity.”Thedecisiontobuyanewenergy-savingpieceofequipmentisaloteasiertodiscussandanalyzethanstrategicinvestmentdecisions.Inthecaseoftheenergy-savingequipment,cashflowscanbeestimatedandthedecisiontobuyornottobuycanbemadebasedonwell-knowncapitalbudgetingtechniques.Thebasiccapitalbudgetingtechniquesare“programmedactivities”inSimon’slaw.Strategyissuesarealotsofterandalotlesssatisfactorytowriteaboutandtoread.However,itmaywellbethatstrategyissuesaremuchmoreimportant,eveniftheyarenotfuntoconsider.
Strategyleadsafirmtoentertheenergybusiness.Thatisthefirstandmostimportantdecision.Thefirmmightthenhavetovalueaprospectiveacquisitionasameansofacceleratingtheentryintotheindustry,butwithoutthestrategydecisionitwouldnotbenecessarytovaluetheacquisition.
Allbusinessdecisionmakingisbasedonabstractionsfromreality.Wehavetosimplifyinordertomakedecisions.Wecandelaydecisionmakingbyinsisting-onmoreinformation,butwhenthemoreinformationisobtained,therewillstillbemoreinformationthatcouldbeobtainedifyouwerewillingtodeferaction.Soonerorlateronehastoresisttheopportunitytogetmoreinformation,andonehastomakethedecision.
HerbertSimonhassaidthisbest:
Administrativetheoryispeculiarlythetheoryofintendedandboundedrationality–ofthebehaviorofhumanbeingswhosatisficebecausetheyhavenotthewitstomaximize.
Andasadditionalexplanation:
Whereaseconomicmanmaximizes–selectsthebestalternativefromamongallthoseavailabletohim,hiscousin,administrativeman,satisfices–looksforacourseofactionthatissatisfactoryor“goodenough.”Examplesofsatisficingcriteria,familiarenoughtobusinessmenifunfamiliartomosteconomists,are“shareofmarket,”“adequateprofit,”“fairprice.”
Thesubstitutionoftheword“satisfice”for“maximize”isnotnecessaryifwearewillingtoconsiderthecostsofinformation,search,anddelayinthedecisiontomaximize.InasensewecanconcludethatSimonissuggestingthatitisbettertomakedecisions,evenimperfectdecisions,thantoendurethelongwaituntiltheperfectinformationandperfectdecisionprocessesareavailable.“Inanimportantsense,alldecisionisamatterofcompromise.”
WhileSimon’s“satisfice”descriptionisanextremelyusefuldevicefordescribinghowmanagersoperate,weshallfinditconvenienttocollapseSimon’s“satisfice”andprofitmaximizationintooneexpression.Infect,theprofitmaximization(whereprofitisdefinedintermsofrisk-adjustedpresentvalue)isdeemedtobetheprimaryobjectiveofthefirm.Moreisbetter.Further,theprofitmaximizationobjectiveincludestheinformationcostandcostofsearchsothatitisconsistentwithSimon’ssatisfice(wearenotrejectingthesatisficeconcept).Theassumptionisthatdecisionsshouldbemadefromthepointofviewofimprovingthewell-beingofthestockholders.Thisisareasonablepointofdeparture,butitcannotbetheentiremessage.Managers,employees,customers,andsocietyingeneralhaveinterestsintheresultsofafirm’soperations.Wemustalsoconsidertheimpactofdecisionsonthewell-beingofthesegroups.Onemightobjecttothisconclusion,butrealisticallysuchconsiderationsarebeingincludedbysuccessfulfirms.
Nomanagersubmitsaninvestmentorotherdecisionproposalwithoutcarefullyconsideringtheimpactofthedecisionbeingreviewedonhisorherwell-being.Eventheboardofdirectorswillconsiderthewell-beingofmanagersiffornootherreasonthanthatmanagersarelikelytobeontheboard.Employeesalsomustbeconsidered,sinceanobviousandcontinuousdisregardoftheirinterestswillcausethemtoinsistontherighttoprotecttheirinterests.Customersalsogaintheirrighttobeconsideredbytheeconomicpowertheywield,notintheboardroomdirectly,butindirectlyviatherightofaconsumertoavoidbuyingacorporation’sproduct.
Therightsofsocietycantosomeextentbeignoredbyacorporationforashortperiodoftime,butcontinuousimplementationofa“publicbedamned”philosophyislikelytobringforthastringofgovernmentlegislation.Theinterestsofsocietymustberespectedifonlytoavoidsuchlegislation.Acorporationshoulddo“right”eitherbecauseitistheproperthingtodoorbecauseitisinitsownbestintereststobehaveinsuchafashion.
KeyElementsofStrategicPlanning
Thefivekeyelementsofthestrategicplanningarelistedbelow:
Thefirstelementindevelopingastrategyistheidentificationoftheproblemsandopportunitiesthatexist.Asuccessfulfirmwillhaveafertileidea-generatingenvironment.Whatproblemsandopportunitiesarethere?
Problemandopportunityidentificationisoneofthemoreimportantoutputsresultingfromgoodstrategicplanning.Noproblemcanbesolvedoranopportunitycanbeseizedunlessitexists.
Thesecondelementistosetgoals(objectives).Goalsettingisnotindependentoftheidentificationofopportunities.Ifthegoalistoachievegrowthinsalesof15%peryear,itwillbenecessarytospendmoreresourcesgeneratingideasthanifthegoalistoavoidgrowth.Itmaybearguedthattopmanagementshouldstopwiththesettingofthegoalsandleaveeverythingelsetotheoperatingmanagers.Forexample,topmanagementmightsetthegoalstoearnatleast25%returnoninvestment(ROI),tomaintaina15%growthrateperyear,andtocorner20%ofthetotalmarketasthefirm’sprofitgoals.Operatingmanagementwouldthenestablishthedetailsastohowthegoalswouldbeachieved.Apopularformofmanagerialstyleisto“managebyobjectives.”Ifonemanagesbyobjectives,thegoalissetbythetop,butthespecificmethodofgettingtothegoalisnotcontrolled.Theresultsareimportant,notthemethodofgettingtotheresults.Performancemeasurementissubstitutedfordetailedsupervision.Thusgoalsettingbecomesacruciallyimportantelementinthestrategicplanning.
Wenowhaveproblemsandgoalsdefined.Thethirdelementistohaveaprocedureforproviding,possiblesolutions,or“paths”thefirmcanfollowtofindasolution.Forexample,thecurrentenergysituationcanbedefinedasaproblemoranopportunity.Thegoalmightbetoachieveenergyindependenceortomakeagivenreturnoninvestment.Assumeafirmhasdecidedtoentertheenergyindustryandhastodecidewhatkindofenergyitwilldevelopandhowitwillgoaboutit.Forexample,itmightconsidersolar,wind,tide,andfossilandthendecidetogowithsolar.
Havingdecidedtoenterthesolarenergyindustry,thecorporationmightdecidetospendlargesumsonresearchoralternativelymightdecidetoacquireafirmthatalreadyhasvaluableknow-howandthusaccelerateitsentryintotheindustry.Thesettingoftacticsfollowsthesettingofthebasicstrategyforenteringtheindustry.
Thebasicdecisionisto“enterthesolarenergyindustry.”Thegoalsthataresetcanbetoearn25%ROI,increaseearnings15%peryear,andgain20%ofthetotalmarket.Topmanagementofthecorporationmightthenleavethedetailsofhowthisistobeachievedtothemanagersoperatingthesolarenergydivision.Thisisanextremeformofdecentralizationand“bottomlinemanagement.”Themorenormalprocedureisfortopmanagementtooverseethemoreimportantdecisionsthataremade,especiallythoseinvolvinglargeinvestmentoutlaysorotherlargecommitments.
Thefourthelementofstrategicplanningistochoosethebestsolution,givenpossiblesolutionsandthefirm’sobjectives.Onwhatbasiswillthebestsolutionbechosen?
Thegoalmighthavebeenestablishedtomaximizethewellbeingofthestockholders.Thisiseasytostate,butgivenalargenumberofwaystoentertheenergyindustry,whichmethodshouldbechosen?
Itmightbedecidedtochoosethepathwiththelargestnetpresentvalue.Butthenriskconsiderationsshouldenteranalysis.Choosingthebestsolution,evenwithwell-definedgoalsestablished,isadifficultjob.
Thefifthandfinalelementofstrategicplanningistohavesometypeofreviewprocedurestocheckhowthebestsolutionhasactuallyperformed.Howthisreviewfunctionisexecutedwilldependonthepreferencesandstyleofmanagement.
Theabovefiveelementsofstrategicplanningdonotrevealanythingaboutthestyleinwhichthey(andtheresultingplans)willbeimplemented.Theyarebroadenoughtoencompassawiderangeoffinancialdecisions.Forexample,ifthegoalistohavereasonablegrowthbutlittlerisk,theamountofriskthatisacceptabletotheownersofthecorporation(orintheirabsence,totheboardofdirectors)willgreatlyaffecttheamountofdebtthatisusedtofinancethecorporation.
Amajorplanningquestionnotyetansweredistowhatextenttheinterestsoftheorganizationcomeaheadoftheinterestsofthedifferentgroupsofemployees.Whatsortofperformancemeasureswillbeused,andwhathappenswhengoalsarenotmet?
Willexcuses(explanations)belistenedto,orwilltherebeaninsistenceonperformance?
Managerialstylewillcirclebackandaffectthingslikeideageneration.
ApproachtoStrategy
Wewillconsiderfourapproachestostrategy.Thefirstusesbrillianceandisunstructured,whilethesecondusesdramaticsimplificationsandbroadgeneralizations.Thethirdreliesheavilyonstatisticaldata,andthefourthisatheoreticalapproa
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