宏观经济分析英文论文.docx
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宏观经济分析英文论文.docx
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宏观经济分析英文论文
2010~2011SurveyandanalysisofdomesticinflationIntroduction
Currentinflationhasbecomeahotspot.AsChina'seconomicdevelopmentisastageofdevelopment,andenergy,realestateissues,issuessuchasagriculturalproductthecombinedeffect,makingChina'sinflationproblemevenmorecomplicated.Thisarticlefromthecurrentsituationofinflation,analyzesthecausesofinflation,putforwardtheproposalreducethecurrentinflationinChina.
AccordingtoNationalBureauofStatisticsJanuary20,2011datareleasedin2010,China'sannualconsumerpriceindex(CPI)continuedtorise,1.5%fromthebeginningoftheyearhavebeenrisingtoahighof5.1%inNovember,DecemberCPIrose4.6%,theCentralrose0.5%,annualincreaseof3.3%.Lastyear'spriceincreases,makingChinatheemergenceofalargenumberof"priceoffreshwords",suchas"garlicyouvicious,""beansyouplay","Oilcannotyou","Jiangyourarmy"to"sugarEmperor",etc.endlessvarietyofnewpriceterms,Jokingrevealedahighprice.Thetrendin2011isstillnotreduced,butthemoreintensethemorespeech.Marchconsumerpricesrose5.4%,5.3%inApril.Butmanypeoplebelievethatthisdataislow,generallybelievethatin2010inflationwas7.1%.
Ineconomics,inflationisariseinthegenerallevelofpricesofgoodsandservicesinaneconomyoveraperiodoftime.Whenthegeneralpricelevelrises,each
unitofcurrencybuysfewergoodsandservices.Consequently,inflationalsoreflectsanerosioninthepurchasingpowerofmoney–alossofrealvalueintheinternalmediumofexchangeandunitofaccountintheeconomy.Achiefmeasureofpriceinflationistheinflationrate,theannualizedpercentagechangeinageneralpriceindex(normallytheConsumerPriceIndex)overtime.
Inflation'seffectsonaneconomyarevariousandcanbesimultaneouslypositiveandnegative.Negativeeffectsofinflationincludeadecreaseintherealvalueofmoneyandothermonetaryitemsovertime,uncertaintyoverfutureinflationmaydiscourageinvestmentandsavings,andhighinflationmayleadtoshortagesofgoodsifconsumersbeginhoardingoutofconcernthatpriceswillincreaseinthefuture.Positiveeffectsincludeensuringcentralbankscanadjustnominalinterestrates,andencouraginginvestmentinnon-monetarycapitalprojects.
Economistsgenerallyagreethathighratesofinflationandhyperinflationarecausedbyanexcessivegrowthofthemoneysupply.Viewsonwhichfactorsdeterminelowtomoderateratesofinflationaremorevaried.Lowormoderateinflationmaybeattributedtofluctuationsinrealdemandforgoodsandservices,orchangesinavailablesuppliessuchasduringscarcities,aswellastogrowthinthemoneysupply.However,theconsensusviewisthatalongsustainedperiodofinflationiscausedbymoneysupplygrowingfasterthantherateofeconomicgrowth.Today,mostmainstreameconomistsfavoralow,steadyrateofinflation.Low(asopposedtozeroornegative)inflationmayreducetheseverityof
economicrecessionsbyenablingthelabormarkettoadjustmorequicklyinadownturn,andreducetheriskthataliquiditytrappreventsmonetarypolicyfromstabilizingtheeconomy.Thetaskofkeepingtherateofinflationlowandstableisusuallygiventomonetaryauthorities.Generally,thesemonetaryauthoritiesarethecentralbanksthatcontrolthesizeofthemoneysupplythroughthesettingofinterestrates,throughopenmarketoperations,andthroughthesettingofbankingreserverequirements.
ThemajorinflationprobleminChinatoday
AnalystsgenerallyagreedthattheupcomingDecember2009theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)changeappearsmorelikely-than-expected,CPIisexpectedtoabout1.5%to2%inthelastmonth,basedonrapidriseinfoodprices,takingintoaccountsnowandotherweatherfactors,andevenmonthlyCPIdoesnotruleoutmorethan2%.Thejudgeforthe2010CPI,analystsbelievethatabout3%oftheyear,butmayoccurinthefourthquarter,nearly5%inflationpressures.
1.Thesteadyriseinrealestatedevelopmentandinvestment,housepricesgraduallyincreasetheimpactofinflationexpectations.Realestatehasbeenthegovernment'smacroeconomicregulationandcontrolofthemostintractableproblems,theGovernmentrecentlyintroducedthemostseverehistoryofpricecontrolprograms,suchasthelimitofloans,propertytax,etc.Now,aftertheintroductionofaseriesofcontrolmeasures,manypeoplesaidChina'sgoldenyearswillsoonendofthepropertymarket,somepeoplewouldsayitisshort-termregulation,afterall,istemporary,andmaycauseshock.Butbacktotheviewoftherecentpropertymarket
begantopickup,therehasbeenmoreontheexpansionofthemoresuppressedthestrangephenomenon.Thismakesthealreadyhealthypropertymarketisnearcollapse,acceleratinginflationswell.
2.Thefullpricesofagriculturalproducts,inflationunannounced.
NationalBureauofStatisticsreleasedthemajorfoodpricesin50citiesfound:
April21-30May,tomato,potato,rice,flour,respectively,theaveragepriceof5.87yuan/kg,4.71yuan/kg,4.51yuan/kg,3.46yuan/kg,respectively,overthesameperiodrose6.5%lastmonth,13.5%,2.3%,0.9%,whilethesameperiodlastyearrose20.5%,49%,18.4%,9.5%.Monitoredbythe27majoragriculturalproducts,only5kindsofagriculturalproductshasdeclinedoverthesameperiodlastyear,pricesofagriculturalproductsaccountedfor81.5%,ofwhichthelargestrateofincreaseinvegetableprices.Generalriseinpricesofagriculturalproducts,theindustryanalysisofitscauses,inadditiontotheimbalancebetweensupplyanddemandcausedbyweather,transportationandlaborcostsandotherfactors,thehotmoneytraptheuseofinformation,speculationandothermeansofcollectivecryrosegarlic,greenbeansandotheragriculturalproducts,asthisrounddrivingforcebehindthepricesurge.
3.Energyprices,acceleratedinflation
China'snewroundofenergypriceadjustmentscurtainhasbeenopened.Fullofenergypricesbegantorise.Aftertheoilpriceincreases,therefinedoilproductshavebeenreachingrecordhighs.Inadditiontonaturalgas,startanewroundofpriceincreasesthroughout.Anotherproduct"electricity",theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionhasalsoreportedthesalepricehasbeenadjustedtodiscussthe
programwiththeprovincestocarryouttheworkofthemessage,theterminalsalespriceoftheaverageincreaseisexpectedtobe2centsperso.Thiswillspeeduptheinflation
InflationAnalysis
Findinformationonbeforethecontentsofanindividualundertheschoolin2010to2011,inflationdiditsownanalysis.Inflationperformanceisthemostintuitiveprices.Thisismostfrequentlyheardthenewstwoyearshousingprices,risingoilprices,vegetablepricesrose.Realestatehousingpricesbecauseofcoursecausedbyheat.Priceofoilisbasicallycontrolledbythegovernment,oilpricesmeanthatthegovernmentshouldbemoremoney.Perhapsbecauseofrisingvegetablepricesinshortsupplythelasttwoyearsmorecountriestonaturaldisasters,leadingtocropfailures,naturalvegetablepricestorise.Relatedtotheoilindustry,oilpricesrise,manyproductioncostswillrise,andthecorrespondingproductpriceishigher.Vegetables,thepriceofthemisdirectlyrelatedtofeedingandhousingpeople.Takingthesethreecategories,priceswereallup,andpeoplewithoutacorrespondingincreaseinproductionandIthinktheseshouldbepartofthereasonleadingtotheprice.HerearemyonlinedocumentationundertheinflationtriggeredbyanumberofelementsprovedIsaidonseveralpoints.
1.Becauseofthefrequentnaturaldisasters,agriculturalcropfailure
China'soverallagriculturalharvestin2010,resultinginpriceincreasesrapidly.First,thespreadofdustinaridregionsofInnerMongoliatotheeastandsouth;Secondly,Guizhou,Yunnan,Sichuan,Guangxi,alargeareaofdrought;
Moreover,theearthquakeofYushuCountyofmagnitude7.1occurredinApril,caused2698peoplewerekilled,270missing;thesametime,Hainan,asthesupplyofvegetablesisimportanttohavefloodinginOctober,leadingtoseriousfoodprices.Thesenaturaldisasterscausedfoodshortages,leadingtofurtherpriceincreasescausedbyinflation.Meanwhile,somecountriesexperienceddroughtandfloodsin2010causedbyfoodproductionandinternationalagriculturalpricesandthusdomesticpricesinChinahadasignificantimpact.
2.Adjustmentofnationalpoliciestopromoterisingprices
First,in2010China,thepriceadjustment,electric,water,naturalgaspricesrise,exacerbatinginflation.Second,becauseChina'smarketeconomyisnotstandardized,thecentralgovernmentregulationofrealestate,thecommunityoutalotofhotmoneyfrompropertyspeculationafteraseriousagriculturalproducts.Excessliquidityinthecurrentcircumstances,increasingthevalueofcapitalinvestmentdemandcausedinflation.
Inaddition,earlyNovember2010,theUnitedStatesannouncedanewroundofquantitativeeasingpolicy,thereleasemakestheflowofforeignagriculturalproductsinChina,commoditiesandrawmaterials(suchascrudeoil)pricesrise,andspreadtoChina,theCPIgrowthratethanexpected.
3.Theexcessivecurrencyandtheentryofhotmoney
Since2008,thefinancialtsunami,theglobaleconomicstimuluspoliciesforlarge-scale,issuealotofmoney,theUnitedStatesaftertheimplementationofChina'sfinancialcrisisonWallStreet'seconomicstimuluspolicy,moneysupplyissuetoo,
theoreticallymorethantwicetheGDP,thecurrencymarketliquiditytoolarge,thehighsidewhenthemoneysupplywhenthepricenaturallyrises.A
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