自动驾驶汽车的安全性外文翻译中英文Word文档格式.docx
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自动驾驶汽车的安全性外文翻译中英文Word文档格式.docx
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humandriver,”becauseitisnecessarilydefinedwithrespecttopopulation-leveldata.Atthelevelofindividualriskassessment,abodyofresearchhasshownthatmostdriversperceivethemselvestobesaferthantheaveragedriver(the
better-than-averageeffect).
Method:
Usinganonlinesample,thisstudyexaminedU.S.drivers’ratingsoftheirownabilitytodrivesafelyandtheirdesiredlevelofsafetyforself-drivingvehicles.
Results:
Thisstudyreplicatedthebetter-thanaverageeffectandshowedthatmostdriversstatedadesireforself-drivingcarsthataresaferthantheirownperceivedabilitytodrivesafelybeforetheywould:
(1)feelreasonablysaferidinginaself-drivingvehicle;
(2)buyaself-drivingvehicle,allotherthings(cost,etc.)beingequal;
and(3)allowself-drivingvehiclesonpublicroads.
Conclusions:
Sincemostdriversbelievetheyarebetterthanaveragedrivers,thebenchmarkofachievingautomationthatissaferthanahumandriver(onaverage)maynotrepresentacceptablysafeperformanceofself-drivingcarsformostdrivers.
Practicalapplications:
Ifperceivedlevelofsafetyisanimportantcontributortoacceptanceofself-drivingvehicles,thepopular“saferthanahumandriver”benchmarkmaynotbeadequateforwidespreadacceptance.
Keywords:
Human-automationinteraction,Trustinautomation,Self-drivingvehicles,Autonomousdriving,Vehicleautomation
Introduction
Advancesinengineeringandtechnologyhavemadetheprospectofmass-marketed,self-drivingvehiclesthesubjectofincreasingpublicdiscussion.Useracceptanceofautomationisanimportantdeterminantofwhetherthetechnologysucceedsorfails.Theextenttowhichthepublicandconsumerswillacceptself-drivingcarshasyettobedetermined,buttrust—“theattitudethatanagent[inthiscaseaself-drivingcar]willhelpachieveanindividual'
sgoalsinasituationcharacterizedbyuncertaintyandvulnerability”(Lee&
See,2004,p.51)—willbeanimportantfactor(Choi&
Ji,2015;
alsosee
KaurandRampersad,2018,
Kö
nigandNeumayr,2017).Perceivedriskinfluencestrustinautomation,whichinturninfluencestheextenttowhichpeoplewillrelyonautomatedsystems(Hoff&
Bashir,2015).Astudyofperceptionsofself-drivingcarsonTwitterfoundthatriskswerementionedthreetimesmoreoftenthanbenefitsinsocialmediadiscourse(Kohl,Mostafa,Bö
hm,&
Krcmar,2017).Further,surveysconsistentlyhaveindicatedthatpeoplehaveskepticismandapprehensionsaboutvehicleautomationthatarerelatedtosafety(e.g.,
NielsenandHaustein,2018,
Piaoetal.,2016,
SchoettleandSivak,2014,
Zmudetal.,2016),witharecentsurvey(AmericanAutomobileAssociation,2018)reportingthatover70%ofU.S.driversfearridinginafullyautomatedvehicle.Clearly,safetywillbeanimportantfactorthatwillaffectacceptanceofself-drivingcars,butthecriterionforacceptablesafetyinvehicleautomationforthegeneralpubliciscurrentlyunknown.
Onepotentialsafetybenchmarkthathasemergedinthediscourseonvehicleautomationistocomparetheperformanceofself-drivingcarstohumandriverstoestablishwhethertheautomationissaferthanahumandriver.This
saferthanahumandrivercriterion
(SHDC)hasbecomeubiquitousinthediscoursesurroundingvehicleautomation.Forinstance,GoogleNews(i.e.,news-only)websearchesconductedonNovember17,2018forthephrases“saferthanahumandriver”and“saferthanhumandrivers”(bothsearchesinquotationmarks)returned711and1540respectiveresults—nearlyallofwhichreportednewsandanalysisonvehicleautomation.Thesereportsandcommentariescontainclaimsthatvehicleautomationalreadyhasmet(e.g.,byElonMusk,asreportedin
McGoogan,2016),hasnotmet(e.g.,
McArdle,2018),and/oreventuallywillmeet(e.g.,
Hetherington,2018)theSHDC.Onesurvey(SchoettleandSivak,2014)showedthataround75%ofparticipantsweremoderatelytohighlyconcernedabout“self-drivingvehiclesnotdrivingaswellashumandriversingeneral,”whereasanother(Piaoetal.,2016)indicatedthatonly25%ofparticipantsbelievedthatautomatedvehicleswillbe“saferthanhumandrivenvehicles.”Indeed,muchofthediscussionofacceptablelevelsofsafetyforself-drivingcarsseemsto
hinge
uponwhethertheymeettheSHDC(e.g.,
Teoh&
Kidd,2017),perhapsbecausethiscriterionpresentsastark,binarydelineationbetweenoutcomessuperiororinferiortothecurrentstatusquo.
TheSHDCdefinessafetyrelativetopopulation-leveldataparameters,whichmeansthecriterionisactually“saferthan
humandriver.”Indeed,
KalraandGroves(2017)
estimatedthatwidespreaddeploymentofhighlyautomatedvehiclesthatareevensomewhat(i.e.,10%)saferthantheaveragehumandriverwouldsavemanylives(uptohalfamillion,dependingonvariousfactors)inthedecadesfollowingtheirintroduction.Assuch,thenormative,rationaldecisionforminimizinglossoflifeinthelong-termwouldbeforalldriverstousehighlyautomatedvehiclesassoonastheautomationhasbecomemarginallysaferthantheaveragehumandriver.
Atthelevelofindividualdecision-making,however,itisnotcertainthatvehicleautomationthatissaferthantheaveragedriverwillcompelwidespreadacceptance,adoption,andpurchaseofvehicleswithself-drivingcapabilities.Humandecision-makingdoesnotfollownormativeprobabilisticprocesses(forareview,see
Beach&
Lipshitz,1993).Perceivedriskmaybeinfluencedbyanumberof
cognitivebiasesthatleadindividualstobelievetheirownpersonalriskisdifferentfromnormativeprobabilitiesbasedonpopulation-leveldata.Acrossawidevarietyofperformanceandtraitdomains,individualstendtoviewthemselvesasbetterthanaverage–aphenomenoncalled
thebetter-than-averageeffect
(forareview,see
Alicke&
Govorun,2005).
Inthecontextofdriving,researchconsistentlyhasshownthatmostdriversbelievethemselvestobeasaferdriverthanboththeaveragehumandriverandthedriversintheirownpeergroups(FinnandBragg,1986,
Harré
etal.,2005,
MarottoliandRichardson,1998,
McCormicketal.,1986).
Svenson(1981)
showedthat88%ofasampleofU.S.driversand77%ofasampleofSwedishdriversratedthemselvesassaferthanthemediandriver.
McKenna,Stanier,andLewis(1991)
showedthatparticipantsratedthemselvesasmoreskillfulthantheaveragedriveracrossanumberofdrivingtasksthataffectsafety(e.g.,payingattentiontoothervehicles,judgingdistancesrequiredtostop,andmindingappropriatespeedsfordrivingconditions).InasampleofUKdrivers,
Horswill,Waylen,andTofield(2004)
showedthatparticipantsratedthemselvesasmoresafe,moreskillful,andlessaccidentpronethanboththeirdemographicallymatchedpeersandtheaveragedriver.
McKenna(1993)
askedpeopletoratetheirlikelihoodofbeinginvolvedinanaccidentwhileridinginavehicleasapassengerversuswhiledrivingthevehicle.Peoplebelievedthattheyhadanaveragechanceofbeinginvolvedinanaccidentasapassenger,buttheyreportedthattheyhadalessthanaveragechanceofbeinginvolvedinanaccidentasthedriverofacar.Inotherwords,peopleseemedtobelievethatpopulation-levelstatisticsaboutaccidentsappliedtootherdrivers,butnottothemselves.McKennaconcludedthatthemechanismforthisbiasistheillusionofcontrol(ratherthanalternativeexplanationssuchasunrealisticoptimism).Relatedfindingsreportedby
DeJoy(1989)
suggestedthatunrealisticoptimismstemsfromthetendencyforpeopletooverestimatetheextenttowhichtheyhavecontrolovercircumstancethatcouldleadtoanaccidentwhiledriving.Correspondingly,riskdenial(believingone'
sownriskislessthanthatofthegeneralpopulation)increasesasperceivedcontroloverriskincreases(Sjö
berg,2000).
Abiastowardinflatedperceptionsofsafetywhileoneisincontrolofavehiclecouldbeproblematicforacceptanceofself-drivingcars.Researchhassuggestedthatpeoplehaveastrongdesiretobeabletotakecontrolbackfromautomatedsystems(Kö
nigandNeumayr,2017,
Nees,2016,
SchoettleandSivak,2016),likelybecausetheyfeelsaferwhentheyareincontrolofthevehicle(e.g.,
DeJoy,1989,
Sjö
berg,2000)ratherthanridingasapassivepassenger(see(McKenna,1993).Althoughthenormative,rationaldecisionatapopulationlevelmaybeforalldriverstorelinquishcontroltoself-drivingcarsassoonasautomationissaferthantheaveragehumandriver(see
Kalra&
Groves,2017),the
realization
ofpopulation-levelbenefits(e.g.,reducedtrafficfatalities)willrequirethatindividualsacceptanduseorbuyself-drivingcars.Ifmostindividualsbelievetheyareabove-averagedriverswithrespecttosafetyduetobiasesrelatedtotheillusionofcontroloverrisks,thentheymayrequireself-drivingcarstomeetahigherbenchmarkthantheSHDCbeforetheywillacceptthisnewtechnology.Specifically,itseemsthatpeoplewillwantself-drivingcarstobesaferthantheybelievethemselvestobe.Forexample,arecentstudy(Liu,Yang,&
Xu,2019)modeledriskacceptabilityforself-drivingvehiclesinasampleofresponsesfromChineseparticipants.Theirresultssuggestedthattheminimumacceptablesafetycriterionmaybe4–5timessaferthanhumandrivers.
Thecurrentstud
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- 自动 驾驶 汽车 安全性 外文 翻译 中英文