美赛B题一等奖论文Word文档下载推荐.docx
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美赛B题一等奖论文Word文档下载推荐.docx
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Tosolvethewatercrisis,fourmodels--storage、mobilization、desalination、andsewagetreatmentwereestablished.Indesalinationandsewagetreatmentmodel,processingcostsandenvironmentaleffectswerecalculatedquantitatively.Inthestoragemodel,storagecapacityofundergroundreservoirswasacquiredbyidealizingtheaquifer.Whileinmobilizationmodel,thevariousdiversionrouteswerelinearprogrammedbymeansofLINGO,fourrouteswerefoundtohavethelowestcost--AB、
CD、FD、CE.Andsensitivityanalysiswasdone.
ThepriorityoftheabovemeasuresisassessedbyAHP,whichshowedthemobilizationisoptimal,followedbydesalination.Theninthatorderthemeasuresarecombinedtomakeupwater.FortheInternalwaterallocation,freshwateroptimalallocationmodelisbuilttomaximumtheeconomicbenefits.ThenThefinalbestwaterstrategyisasfollows:
ForCzone,CD、CEtworoutesneedbuildingwiththetotalcosts72.78billionyuan.ForFzone,FDwiththecosts5.43billionyuanand100desalinatorsinShandong,Tianjinneedbuilding.ForB,Fzones,thosemeasurescan’tcompletelyworkout,extrassuchasagriculturaldripirrigationtechnologywhichcanreducethewaterdemandsshouldbeadopted.
Contents
1.Introduction..................................................................................2
2.AnalysisofThisFreshwaterProbleminChina..........................2
3.GeneralAssumptions..................................................................3
4.SymbolsandDefinitions............................................................4
5.MathematicalModels.................................................................4
5.1Predictionmodel.................................................................4
5.2Waterstoragemodel..........................................................10
5.3Mobilizationmodel............................................................12
5.4Seawaterdesalinationmodel…………………………......14
5.5Sewagetreatmentmodel……………………………....…19
5.6AHPmodel…………………………………………….....22
5.7Modelforintra-regionaloptimalallocationofwater……24
6Thenon-technicalpositionpaper...............................................25
7.Examination………………………………………………......27
8.Evaluation.................................................................................27
8.1Strengths…………..……………………………………27
8.2Weaknesses…………………………………………...…28
9.Improvement……………………………………………….....28
10.References................................................................................29
1.Introduction
Chinaisaseriouslydroughtyandwater-scarcecountry.ThetotalfreshwaterresourcesofChinais2.8trillioncubicmeters,accountingfor6%oftheworld'
sfreshwaterresources,secondonlytoBrazil,RussiaandCanada,rankedfourthintheworld.However,waterresourcepercapitainChinaisonly2,300cubicmeters,whichisonly1/4oftheworldaverage,andChinaisoneofthecountrieswiththepoorestwaterresourcespercapitaintheglobal.What'
smore,Chinahasthemostwaterconsumptionintheworld.In2002,it’snationalfreshwaterusageamounthasalreadyreached549.7billioncubicmeters,accountingforabout13%oftheworld'
sannualusageamount,anditisabout1.2timesoffreshwatersupply---470billioncubicmeterstheUnitedStatesusedin1995.
Sincethe1970s,Chinahasbegundryingout,whichisnotanalarmist,butanobjectivefact.Sincethe1980s,China'
swatershortagehasalreadybeguntospreadfromthelocalgraduallytothewholecountry,andthesituationismoreandmoreserious,whichhasaseriousimpactonagricultureandthenationaleconomy.Soitisnecessarytobuildamathematicalmodelfordetermininganeffective,feasible,andcost-efficientwaterstrategyfor2013tomeettheprojectedwaterneedsofChinain2025,andthebestwaterstrategyshouldbeidentifiedassoonaspossible.
2.AnalysisofThisFreshwaterProbleminChina
Therequirementsofthesubjectaretodetermineafeasibleandeffective,andcost-effectivewaterstrategytomeetthewaterdemandin2025,whenitis2013.
Firstofall,itisnecessarytopredicthowlargethewaterdemandinChinawouldbein2015.Waterdemandisdeterminedbytheregionalfreshwatersupply-demandbalance,andthereforeitneedstopredicttheamountofwaterconsumptionandwatersupply.WaterresourcesdatainrecentyearsofeachareainChinacanbefoundbytheNationalBureauofStatistics.Withthesedata,thefunctionaboutthebothtwoandtimecanbefitted,andwaterconsumption、watersupplyofvariouspartsofChinain2025couldbeobtained.Thusthedryzonesandwatershortagecouldbedetermined.Withtoomanyprovincesandcities,andtoomuchdata,itisbettertowesplitChinaintoafewzonestostudy.
Astotheproblemofwatershortage,itneedstoraisesolutions.Ingeneral,storage、mobilization、desalination,sewagetreatmentandothermeasuresarethecommonreplenishmentmeasuresusedbythegovernment.Inordertoquantitativelystudytheseprograms,itneedstounderstandthespecificprocessofeachprogram,aswellaseachcostitproduced.Amongthem,thediversionmeasureshavebeenidentified.Todeterminethewaterdiversionroute,takingthewatermobilizationcostsintoaccount,inviewoftheextremelyunevendistributionofwaterresourcesinChina,thebestdiversionrouteneedstobedeterminedthroughthemethodoflinearprogramming.Inadditiontowatersupply,reducingthedemandforfreshwaterisalsooneoftheways,suchasincreasingthewaterprices,usingagriculturalirrigationdriptechnology,etc.Theyarealleffectivemeasures.Ontheotherhand,thegovernmentshouldalsoimprovethenationalwater-savingawareness.
Eachofthesemeasureshasitsowncosts,economicbenefitsandtheenvironmentalimpact.Whendeterminethewaterstrategy,itisnecessarytousingprioritiestomakedecisions.Soitneedstousetheanalytichierarchymodeltoassessandrankthevariousschemes.Whendeterminethebestsolutioncombination,italsoneedstoconsiderateitslocalconditionsanditsfeasibility.
Finally,itneedstofullycompensateforthewatershortage,anddeterminethebestwaterstrategyin2025.
3.GeneralAssumptions
Inordertohaveabetterstudyonthispaper,wesimplifyourmodelbythefollowingassumptions:
1.Thereisnoadditionalartificialwatersupplyexceptourdeterminedwaterstrategyfrom2013to2025.
2.Therearenodroughts、floodsandstronggeologicaldisastersfrom2013to2025.
3.Watertransferlineisstraight,andwaterdiversioncostsperkilometerignoretheimpactoftheterrainandtheenvironment.
4.Desalinationplantsarealloffshore,withoutconsideringtheseawatertransportationcosts.
5.Donotconsiderincreasedfreshwaterforgreenhouseeffect.
6.Donotconsidertheeffectofpricechanges.
4.SymbolsandDefinitions
Inthissection,wewillgivesomebasicsymbolsanddefinitionsinthefollowingforconvenience.
Table1.VariableDefinition
VariableSymbols
Definition
Unit
P
population
M
GDP
×
108yuan
N
Waterdemandof
agriculturalirrigation
104m3
t
time
year
W
Totalwatermobilizationcosts
yuan
C
Desalinationcosts
PollutionEquivalent
5.MathematicalModels
5.1.Predictionmodel
Waterdemandisdeterminedbytheregionalfreshwatersupply–demandbalance,beforediscussingthewaterdemandin2025,thewaterdemandandwatersupplyneedtobepredictedfirstly.
5.1.1.Chinapartitionaccordingtothewaterresourcessituations
Partitionprinciples:
I.Trytotakecareoftheintegrityoftheadministrativedivisions,whichisconvenientforcollectionandstatisticsofthedata.
II.Eachpartitionhasthesameonelevelofannualprecipitation,andeachpartitionhasarelativelyconsistentwatershortagesituation.
III.Trytoensurethatthecoastalareascouldbedividedtogetherasmuchaspossible,tobeconvenientforsubsequentdesalinationprocessing.
Chinahas32provincesandmunicipalities,whichcanbedividedintotheNorthChina,EastChina,northeastofChina,southernpartofChinaandNorthwestaccordingtothegeographicallocation.Andtheannualprecipitationalsoshowedadecreasinggradingfromsoutheasttonorthwest.Withcomprehensiveconsiderationsoflocation、climate、annualprecipitationandotherfactors,Chinawasdividedintosevenareas--Azone、Bzone、Czone、Dzone、Ezone、Fzone、Gzone,fortheconvenienceofourstudy.Andwehavestudiedrespectivelythewater
shortagesituationsofthesevenregions:
Specificdividingcircumstancesareasfollows:
Figure1:
Chinapartition
Azone:
Tibet、Qinghai、Xinjiang
Bzone:
Gansu、InnerMongolia,Shaanxi,ShanxiandNingxia
Czone:
Sichuan、Yunnan、GuizhouandChongqing
Dzone:
Hunan、HubeiandJiangxi、Anhui、Henan
Ezone:
Fujian,Zhejiang,ShanghaiandJiangsu,Guangxi,GuangdongandHainan
Fzone:
BeijingandHebei,Shandong,Tianjin
Gzone:
Jilin,LiaoningandHeilongjiang
5.1.2.Analysi
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