fandu42.docx
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fandu42.docx
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TPG:
TheOperators
Canprivateequitybeatthemarketagain?
Mega-shopTPGmakesa$48billionbetthattheanswerisyes.
It'salateAugustmorninginJimCoulter'sofficeonthe33rdfloorofoneofSanFrancisco'stallestbuildings,andtheviewhascleared.WiththefogburnedofftheBay,theGoldenGateBridgeisglitteringinthesunshine.It'sagloriousSanFranciscomoment,butCoulterdoesn'tseemtonotice.Insteadhe'satawhiteboard,diagrammingtheprivateequitybusinessingreenmarker.
"It'sathree-boxmodel,"Coultersays,drawingboxesandfillingtheminwithabbreviations—"SP"for"stockpickers,""DG"for"dealguys,"and"PM"for"portfoliomanagers."
Coulter,51,alongwithDavidBonderman,68,isco-founderofthe19-year-oldprivateequityfirmTPGCapital,whichhasengineeredmanyofthelargestandmostvisibledealstheindustryhasseen,includingthe1997purchaseofJ.Crewfor$475millionandthe2006initialpublicoffering,whichvaluedthecompanyat$1.1billion;the$43.2billionacquisitionofTexasutilityTXU,renamedEnergyFutureHoldings;andthe$27billiontakeoverofcasinocompanyHarrah's,nowknownasCaesarsEntertainment.TPG,with278employeesin14offices,controls$48billionofinvestments,puttingitatthetopoftheprivateequityworld,alongwithBlackstone,Carlyle,andKKR.SuchsuccesshasputCoulteratNo.221onForbes'listofthewealthiestAmericans,withanestimatednetworthof$1.8billion.(HeistiedwithBonderman,alsoat$1.8billion.)
EachplayerinthebuyoutindustryusesitsownblendofCoulter'sthreeboxes.TPG,Coultersays,emphasizesportfoliomanagementanddeals.Portfoliomanagementisn'taboutstocks.Rather,it'safocusonimprovingtheperformanceofacquiredcompanies,ofteninthetiniestways.Coulterarguesthatit'sTPG'soperationsteam—60fixerswhogointocompaniesandsearchforefficiencies—thatsetsthefirmapart,notthestockpickersordealguys,whoputthepurchasestogether."Thereissomesecretsaucetowhatwedo,"hesays.
"Privateequity,"strictlyspeaking,describesabusinessthatdeployscapitaloutsideofthepublicmarkets,butthe"private"isoftenemphasizedinitssecondarymeaningaswell.It'straditionallyamongthemostsecretiveofbusinesses,partlybecauseadealislikeapokerhand,bestdeployedbysurprise,andpartlybecausethefees,andsomeoftheindustrymethods,suchaspayingoutenormousdividendsfromoverleveragedacquisitions,workbetterwhennooneiswatching.
Thathaschanged,tosomeextent,asprivateequityfirmshavegonepublic.BothBlackstoneandKKRarenowpubliclytraded,andCarlyleissaidtobemullinganofferingin2011.TPGhasheldout,andCoultersaystherearenoplanstotakethefirmpublic.
It'sunusualforTPGtoinviteareporterintothefirm,buttheseareunusualtimesforTPG,andforprivateequity.Returns,inaggregate,arebeginningtolookalotlikethoseofthemarket,whichthreatenstherationalefortheindustryanditseye-poppingfees—usually20percentofanyprofititcreatesforinvestors,alongwitha2percentmanagementfee,winorlose.
Ingeneral,aninvestorinprivateequitycommitsmoneytoafundfor10years.Thus,mostjudgeafund'sperformanceafterit'shadfiveorsoyearstomakeinvestments,groupingthemby"vintages,"theyearafundstartedinvesting.AccordingtoPitchBook,aprivateequitydealdatabase,theaveragereturnforfundsraisedin2001was22percent,whilefundsfrom2005wereaveraging4percent.TPG'sfunds,inthattime,returnedsimilarresults.Andit'sstillluggingaroundboom-erabaggage,includingEnergyFutureandthememoryoflosing$1.3billioninaminorityinvestmentinWashingtonMutual.
TheprofileofitsdealsandthewidernotorietyoftheindustryinthepublicandpoliticalspheresmeanTPGcan'toperateintheshadowsanymore,unlessitwantsitscriticstobetheonlyonestalking."We'remoreinthepubliceye,"saysCoulter,whoarguesthatsomeoftheangeratprivateequity,fromanti-WallStreetpoliticians,laborleaders,anddisappointedinvestors,comesfromamisunderstandingofwhatthefirms—andhisinparticular—actuallydo."It'stimeforustoenterthenarrative,"hesays.
Still,somehabitsaren'teasilybroken.AsCoulterfillshiswhiteboardwithexplanations,he'salsoplayingthepokergame.Afewdayslaterhe'llflytoNewYorkCityforadinnermeetingwithJ.CrewChiefExecutiveOfficerMickeyDrexler,settinginmotionanoffertopurchaseJ.Crew—again.Thistime,for$3billion.
Liketherestoftheindustry,TPGisstillcopingwithabuyoutboomthatwaspoweredbycheapcredit—anddestroyedbyitssuddendisappearance.Theboomcrestedin2006and2007,when9ofthe10biggestdealsinhistorywereannounced.AmongthemwastheacquisitionofTXUandthepurchaseofHarrah's,bothTPGprojects.
Privateequityfirmsareunderscrutinynotjustfromthepublicbutfromtheirinvestors,whohavepouredrecordamountsintobuyoutfunds.Thoseinstitutionalplayers,stilltenderfromthefinancialcrisis,aredemandingmoreinformationfromfirmstheyalreadyinvestinaswellasthoselookingforfreshcommitments.They'realsoquestioninghowmuchthey'llpayfortheprivilegeofinvesting,accordingtoobserverssuchasColinBlaydon,directoroftheCenterforPrivateEquityandEntrepreneurshipatDartmouthCollege'sTuckSchoolofBusiness."Everyinvestmentthat'sbeingdonenow,thefeeissuesarerightupfront,"hesays."Thisisabigconversationthat'sgoingoneverywhere."
Privateequity'sperformancevs.thepublicmarketshasbeencompelling,especiallyfrom1998to2005,saysStevenKaplan,aprofessorattheUniversityofChicagoBoothSchoolofBusiness,whohasdoneextensiveresearchonprivateequityreturns."ThiswasaperiodwhenfirmslikeTPGhadbeguntoinvestinoperationalcapabilities,"Kaplansays."Theydidbetterthanthepublicmarketsoverthattime,andthat'swhysomuchmoneycamein."Theproblem,hesays,isthatastheindustrygrowsandcompetitionforeachdealincreases,"theexcessreturnsgetcompetedaway."
RightnowfirmssuchasTPGarereadytoprovetheirmerit.Privateequityfirmscollectivelyemergedfromthecrisiswithmorethanhalfatrilliondollarsincommitmentstheyneededtospend,accordingtoPitchBook.TPGhas$17billion.Theopenquestioniswhetherornottheycanspendthatmoneywisely—oratleastmorewiselythanthemarketoverall—whenadjustedfortheirfees.
Thedealsgettingdonenowaredifferentfromthoseintheboom,andCoulterbelievesthatbenefitsTPG."We'veseensomethingofafundamentalchange,"saysDartmouth'sBlaydon."Therearethreewaystomakemoneyinaleveragedbuyout—thecapitalstructure,buyinglowandsellinghigh,andactuallyimprovingthecashflowsofthecompany.Thelastistheonlyonethatinvestorsthinkcanactuallydeliverthereturnsinthefuture,giveneverythingwe'vegonethrough."
Investors"aremuchmoreinterestedtodayinhowyou'regoingtodeliverthatvalueyou'repromising,"Coultersays."Theysay,'Givemeexamples.'"
Asfortheinvestors,"Wemeasuresuccessby[earningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortization]growthasopposedtobalance-sheetrestructuring,"saysAlanVanNoord,chiefinvestmentofficerofPennsylvania'sPublicSchoolEmployeesRetirementSystem."Managersunderstandthattheyhavetobemoreoperationalinnatureandthatfinancialengineeringonlygoessofar."
TPGishardlytheonlyfirmrespondingtocriticismbyshowcasingitsoperationsskills.Clayton,Dubilier&Rice,acompetitor,hasformerGeneralElectricChiefExecutiveJackWelch,whoworkswiththefirmasaspecialpartner.PartofhisjobistokeepCEOsmotivated.ThefirmalsohasformerProcter&GambleCEOA.G.LafleyandGapchiefPaulPressler,aretailexpert.KKRhasaninternaloperationsgroupcalledCapstonethathasdoubleditsheadcountsince2007,to60.
GregBrenneman,nowchairmanofprivateequityfirmCCMPCapitalAdvisors,ranTPGcompaniesthatincludedContinentalandBurgerKing.Brenneman,whostaysintouchwithTPG'sBonderman—atminimum,theyhaveastandingyearlybreakfastinColorado—saysthefinancialengineeringdaysareover,givinganadvantagetofixerssuchashisfirmandTPG."Itreallyishowyou'regoingtomakemoneyinthenextfiveyearsinprivateequity,"Brennemansays."Theoperatorsarebackontopagain."
InearlySeptember,justweeksafterthestill-secretJ.CrewmeetingwithDrexler,CoulterisinNewYorkandswingsbyasmallconferenceroomwithaviewofCentralParkwhereRichard"Dick"Boycehassetupfortheweek.AformerPepsivice-presidentforstrategicplanning,BoycehasrunTPG'soperationsgroupoutofSanFranciscofor14years.
"I'mdefinitelyaprocessmaven,"saysBoyce,pattingastackofspreadsheetsasthoughitwereafavoritepet.Charts,hesays,arehismothertongue.Atonepoint,graspingforawaytoexplainhisduties,heconcedes,"Itendtothinkinslides."He'lloftengrabapieceofpaperandsketchoutatimelineorinterlockingcirclestoillustrateapoint.
Coulter,too,withanengineeringdegreefromDartmouth,isaself-describednuts-and-boltsguy.LikeBoyce,hethinksandspeaksinbulletpoints.Yougetthefeelingthathelikestakingthingsapartjusttoputthembacktogether.Ifyouhadtoputthefoundersintheirownboxes,Coultermightbetheportfoliomanager,whileBonderman,whowillhoponhisprivateplaneatamoment'snoticetohavelunchwithaCEO,ismoreofadealguy.(Bonderman,aconstantworldtraveler,flieshisusedFalcon900inexcessofhalfamillionmilesinmostyears.)
Thesedays,60peopleworkforBoyceino
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