经济学人经济类文章精选4Word格式文档下载.docx
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经济学人经济类文章精选4Word格式文档下载.docx
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Banksshouldbeencouragedtosavemoreforarainyday.ButtheimportanceofSpain’ssystemhasbeenoversold.Goingintothecreditcrisis,itstwobigbankshadanextrabufferequivalenttoabout1.5%ofrisk-weightedassets.BankslikeUBSorCitigrouphavehadwrite-offsfarbeyondthis,equivalentto8-15%ofrisk-weightedassets.Whetherdynamicprovisionsinfluencedmanagers’behaviourisalsoquestionable.Spain’sBBVAwasrunusinganeconomic-capitalmodelthat,accordingtoits2007annualreport,explicitlyreplacedthegenericprovisioninitsincomestatementwithits“bestestimateoftherealriskincurred”.
Accountingstandard-setters,meanwhile,arenotamused.Theysupporttheobjectiveofcounter-cyclicalcapitalrulesbutthinkdynamicprovisioningisabadwaytoachievethis.Whynotsimplyrequirebankstorunwithhighercapitalratios,ratherthangothroughacircuitousroutebysmoothingprofits,whichinvestorstendtodislike?
Accountantsworrytheirstandardsarebeingfiddledwithneedlessly,afteradecades-longfighttohavethemindependentlysettoprovideaccuratedatatoinvestors.
Isthereasolution?
Ifanything,thecrisisshowsthataccountingandsupervisionshouldbefurtherseparatedtobreakthemechanisticlinkbetweenmark-to-marketlossesandcapital.Investorsshouldgettheinformationtheywant.Supervisorsshouldmakeajudgmentaboutthelikelihoodoflossesandsettherequiredcapitallevelaccordingly.WarrenBuffett,anastuteinvestor,hasendorsedthisapproach.
Sadly,banksupervisionisasdysfunctionalasthebanks.TheBasel2accordstookfiveyearstonegotiate.Localregulatorsinterpretedthemdifferentlyandmanyfailedtoenforcethem.ConfidenceintheirintegrityisnowsolowthatmanyinvestorsandsomebanksandregulatorshaveabandonedBaselastheirmaintestofcapital.Giventhismess,itiseasytoseewhypolicymakersmightviewtweakingaccountingstandardsasanattractiveshortcut:
withsomearm-twisting,therulescanbechangedquicklyandarelegallyenforceable.Butthisisamatterwhereshortcutsarenotgoodenough.
Unsavouryspread
TENyearsagoWarrenBuffettandJackWelchwereamongthemostadmiredbusinessmenintheworld.Emergingmarketswereseenasrisky,tobeavoidedbythecautious.Butnowthecredit-defaultswapsmarketindicatesthatBerkshireHathaway,runbyMrBuffett,ismorelikelytodefaultonitsdebtthanVietnam.GECapital,thefinancearmofthegroupformerlyrunbyMrWelch,isaworsecreditriskthanRussiaandonMarch12thStandard&
Poor'
sdowngradeditsdebt—thefirsttimeGEanditssubsidiarieshavelosttheirAAAratinginoverfivedecades.
Thecontrasthighlightsthesorrystateofthecorporate-bondmarket.Aturn-of-the-yearrallywasfoundedonhopesthatspreads(theexcessofcorporate-bondyieldsoverrisk-freerates)morethancompensatedinvestorsfortheeconomicoutlook.Thathasnowpeteredout.
Theweaknesshasbeenmuchgreaterinspeculative,orhigh-yield,bondsthanintheinvestment-gradepartofthemarket.Thisishardlysurprising.First,economicprospectsaresodirethatcompaniesalreadyintroublewillhavedifficultysurviving.Banksaretryingtopreservetheirowncapitalanddonotneedtoownanymoretoxicdebt.Evenifrefinancingwereavailableforendangeredfirms,itwouldbeprohibitivelydear.Itisonlyamatteroftimebeforesomegounder.
Moody’scites283companiesatgreatestriskofdefault,includingwell-knownoutfitslikeBlockbuster,avideo-rentalchain,andMGMMirage,acasinogroup.Ayearagojust157companiesmadethelist.Standard&
Poor’ssays35havedefaultedthisyear,against12inthesameperiodin2008.Thattranslatesintoadefaultrateoverthepast12monthsofjust3.8%.
Therateislikelytoincreasesharply.CharlesHimmelberg,acreditstrategistatGoldmanSachs,forecaststhat14%ofhigh-yieldbondswilldefaultthisyear,withthesameproportiongoingphutin2010.Worse,creditorswillgetbackonlyabout12.5centsonthedollar.Alltold,Goldmanthinksthecombinationofdefaultsandlowrecoveryrateswillcostbondholders37centsonthedollarinthenextfiveyears.
Asecondproblemforthecorporate-bondmarketisthatoptimismaboutthescopeforanimminentendtothefinancialcrisishasdissipated.“Peoplehavegivenuphopethatthenew[Obama]administrationwillbeabletodoanythingtomakethingsbetterquickly,”saysWillemSels,acreditstrategistatDresdnerKleinwort.
Banksarestillthesubjectofheightenedconcern.CreditDerivativesResearchhasdevisedacounterparty-riskindex,basedonthecostofinsuringagainstdefaultof15largebanks;
theindexisnowhigherthanitwasafterthecollapseofLehmanBrothers.JeffRosenberg,headofcreditstrategyatBankofAmericaSecuritiesMerrillLynch,saysinvestorsareuncertainabouttheimpactofgovernmentinterventioninbanks.Eachsuccessiverescue,fromBearStearnstoCitigroup,hasaffecteddifferentpartsofthecapitalstructureindifferentways.
Athirdproblemforthehigh-yieldmarketisthatplansforquantitativeeasing(purchasesbythecentralbankofgovernmentandprivate-sectordebt)arefocusedoninvestment-gradebonds.Aswellasrevivingtheeconomy,governmentsareconcernedaboutprotectingtaxpayers’money,andsowillnotwanttobuybondsathighriskofdefault.Ifthegovernmentisgoingtosupporttheinvestment-grademarket,investorshaveanincentivetosteertheirportfoliosinthatdirection.
Therelativestrengthoftheinvestment-grademarketevenpermittedtheissuanceofaround$300billionofbondsinthefirsttwomonthsoftheyear,albeitlargelyforcompaniesinsafeindustriessuchaspharmaceuticals.Circumstancessuitedallthemarketparticipants.“Spreadswerewide,whichattractedinvestors,butabsolutelevelsofinterestrateswerelow,whichsuitedissuers,”saysMrRosenberg.
AlthoughtheDowJonesIndustrialAveragejumpedbynearly6%onMarch10th,itishardtoseehowtheequitymarketcanenjoyasustainedreboundwhilecorporate-bondspreadsarestillwidening.Bondholdershaveapriorclaimonacompany’sassets;
iftheyarenotgoingtobepaidinfull,thenshareholderswillnotgetalook-in.However,creditinvestorssaytheirmarketoftentakesitsleadfromequities.Ifeachisfollowingtheother,thathintsataworryingdownwardspiral.
APlanBforglobalfinance
Inaguestarticle,DaniRodrikarguesforstrongernationalregulation,nottheglobalsort
THEclarioncallforaglobalsystemoffinancialregulationcanbeheardeverywhere.FromAngelaMerkeltoGordonBrown,fromJean-ClaudeTrichettoBenBernanke,fromsobereconomiststocountlessnewspapereditorials;
everyone,itseems,isaskingforitregardlessofpoliticalcomplexion.
Thatisnotsurprising,perhaps,inlightoftheconvulsionstheworldeconomyisgoingthrough.Ifwehavelearntanythingfromthecrisisitisthatfinancialregulationandsupervisionneedtobetightenedandtheirscopebroadened.Itseemsonlyasmallsteptotheideathatweneedmuchstrongerglobalregulationaswell:
aglobalcollegeofregulators,say;
abindingcodeofinternationalconduct;
orevenaninternationalfinancialregulator.
Yetthelogicofglobalfinancialregulationisflawed.Theworldeconomywillbefarmorestableandprosperouswithathinveneerofinternationalco-operationsuperimposedonstrongnationalregulationsthanwithattemptstoconstructaboldglobalregulatoryandsupervisoryframework.Theriskwerunisthatpursuinganambitiousgoalwilldetractusfromsomethingthatismoredesirableandmoreeasilyattained.
Oneproblemwiththeglobalstrategyisthatitpresumeswecangetleadingcountriestosurrendersignificantsovereigntytointernationalagencies.ItishardtoimaginethatAmerica’sCongresswouldeversignoffonthekindofintrusiveinternationaloversightofdomesticlendingpracticesthatmighthavepreventedthesubprime-mortgagemeltdown,letaloneavertfuturecrises.NorisitlikelythattheIMFwillbeallowedtoturnitselfintoatruegloballenderoflastresort.Thefarmorelikelyoutcomeisthatthemismatchbetweenthereachofmarketsandthescopeofgovernancewillprevail,leavingglobalfinanceasunsafeasever.Thatcertainlywastheoutcomethelasttimewetriedaninternationalcollegeofregulators,intheill-fatedcaseoftheBankofCreditandCommerceInternational.
Asecondproblemisthateveniftheleadingnationsweretoagree,theymightendupconvergingonthewrongsetofregulations.Thisisnotjustahypotheticalpossibility.TheBaselprocess,vieweduntilrecentlyastheapogeeofinternationalfinancialco-operation,hasbeencompromisedbytheinadequaciesofthebank-capitalagreementsithasproduced.Basel1endedupencouragingriskyshort-termborrowing,whereasBasel2’srelianceoncreditratingsandbanks’ownmodelstogenerateriskweightsforcapitalrequirementsisclearlyinappropriateinlightofrecentexperience.Byneglectingthemacro-prudentialaspectofregulation—thepossibilitythatindividualbanksmayappearsoundwhilethesystemasawholeisunsafe—theseagreeme
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