JP摩根-2011年全球经济的11个主题.pdf
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JP摩根-2011年全球经济的11个主题.pdf
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SpecialreportStrongglobalgrowthahead:
Eleventhemesfor2011EconomicResearchJanuary7,Theglobaleconomyispoisedtotakeamajorstepforwardin2011.Withrecentrevisions,ourforecastforglobalGDPgrowthnowstandsat3.7%ona4Q/4Qbasis(4.5%usingPPPweights).Althoughtheprojectedgainisnotthatmuchstrongerthantheriserecordedoverthepastyear,itrepresentsasignificantimprovementfromthepaceofthepastfewquarters.Moreimportant,theexpansionwillevolveinawaythatwillboostconfidenceinitsdurability.TwofactorsthatwillcontributetothisshiftinperceptionaretheemergenceoftheUSeconomyasagrowthleaderunderscoredbyvigorousprivatesectorjobgrowthaveraging200,000permonthandaresurgentglobalservicesector.Atthesametime,theexpansionwillbeseenasthrivingintheabsenceoftemporarysupportsfromfiscalstimulusandtheinventorycycle,whichpropelledtherecoveryduringitsinitialphase.Thefundamentalfactorsdrivingtheexpansionlargelywillbethesameonesthatliftedtheglobaleconomyoutofrecessionoverthepast18months.Mostimportantistheshiftinprivatesectorbehaviorawayfromadefensiveposture.Inthedevelopedworld,firmsandhouseholdsarenotupbeatbutthescarsoftherecessionarealreadyembeddedinlevelsofspending.Withincomesrisingandconfidencebuilding,spendingwillcontinuetoliftfromdepressedlevels.Thegrowthdynamicinemergingmarketeconomiesismorematureandrepresentsanestablishedfeedbacklooplinkingdemandgrowthtojobcreationandcapitalinflows,whichfurtherbolstersconfidenceandadesiretoexpand.Thisshiftinprivatesectorbehaviorisbeingreflectedinandreinforcedbyrisingfinancialassetprices.Therecoveryinequitypricesisrestoringwealthlostin2007and2008.Thepositivewealtheffect,inturn,isboostingspending.Corporateborrowingrateshavefallentoveryattractivelevels,supportingbusinessexpansion.Althoughtheyremaincautious,banksintheG-3economiesgraduallyareturningmoreexpansionary.Surveysofbanklendingofficersinthemajoradvancedeconomiesshowthatamajorityofbanks,albeitsmall,hasbeeneasingtermsandstandardsonmosttypesofloansforthebetterpartofayear.Theprocesswillgainforcethisyearasbankbalancesheetsstrengthenfurtherandlendersseeconcretesignsofsolidjobgrowth,notablyintheUS.DavidHensley1-(212)834-JPMorganChaseBankJosephLupton(1-212)834-JPMorganChaseBank-10-5052008200920102011%chover4qtrsRealGDPUSEuroareaJapan-202468%oyaHeadlineCPIEMDM04060810ContentsPressurepointsforpolicymakers2Keythemesfortheyearahead2Theme1:
USjoinsEMAsiaandLatinAmericaingrowthtriumvirate3Theme2:
Theservicesectorcomestolife4Theme3:
EuropesbudgetdeficitfallstohalfthatoftheUS5Theme4:
Pressuresbuildforlong-termlendingsubsidiesinEMU6Theme5:
USprivatesectorjobgainsaverage200,000permonth7Theme6:
USconsumersspendanddelever8Theme7:
EMconsumptionrisesto37%ofglobaltotal9Theme8:
G-3coreinflationstabilizesbelow1%;Fedstaysonhold10Theme9:
InflationthreatbuildsinEMAsiaandLatinAmerica11Theme10:
Chinatolerateshigherinflation,otherEMfollowinitswake12Theme11:
CapitalflowstotheEMsimmerdown13Globaleconomicoutlooksummary14CentralBankWatch152EconomicResearchStrongglobalgrowthahead:
eleventhemesfor2011January7,2011JPMorganChaseBankNA,NewYorkDavidHensley(212)834-JosephLupton(1-212)834-Easymonetarypolicyalsowillcontinuetosupportgrowth.Policyratesremainnearzerointhedevelopedworld.IntheG-3economies,ratesareexpectedtore-mainunchangedagainin2011againstabackdropofverylowcoreinflationandhighunemployment.ThispolicystanceismademorenecessarybythelossoffiscalstimulusintheUSandJapan,andfiscaltighteninginEurope.IntheEM,policyrateshavedriftedhigherinrecentmonthsbutremainmorethan200bpbe-lowtheir2006-7averagelevels.Fiscalpolicyintheblocwillremainsomewhatstimulative.Successiveyearsofstrongglobalgrowthwilldeliverashiftinglobalinflationdy-namicsbutthiswilloccurgraduallygiventhatlevelsofactivityandresourceutili-zationinmuchoftheDMarestilldepressed.Althoughcommoditypricesrosesharplyin2010,globalinflationremainedverylow,restrainedbyfallingcoreinfla-tionintheadvancedeconomies.In2011,globalinflationshouldturnmodestlyup-ward.Risingcommoditypriceswillliftinflationinretailfoodandenergypricesacrosstheglobe.However,coreinflationwilllikelyremainnearitslowintheDM.Moreover,withsomuchexcessslackinthemajoradvancedeconomies,thepoten-tialforpassthroughfromhigherheadlineinflationtoDMcorepricesisverylow.JusttheoppositeistrueintheEM,however,wherecoreinflationalreadyisrising.PressurepointsforpolicymakersAlthoughweareoptimisticabouttheprospectsfor2011growth,therearepolicychallengesaheadwhoseoutcomeswilldeterminehowtheoutlookevolvesin2012andbeyond.Firstandforemost,Europeansovereignstressislikelytobuildintheabsenceofaclearpathtofiscalsustainability.Althoughperipheralgovernmentsaretakingthenecessarystepstowarddeficitreduction,long-termsolvencyalsore-quiresthattheyhaveaccesstolong-termfinancingatsubsidizedrates.Thisneces-saryconditionhasnotbeenmet,andthefailurebyleaderstoprovideclaritythattheEuroareasliquidityhospitalwillprovideongoingsupportisarecipeformarketpressuretobuildfurther.ThesecondpressurepointrelatestothetimingofpolicynormalizationinEmergingAsiaandLatinAmerica.AlthoughwelookforEMpolicytighteningtopickuppacein2011,theoverallEMmonetarypolicystanceisexpectedtoremaingrowthsupportive.Thiswillfuelinflationpressures,whichalreadyarebuildingacrossmuchoftheEM,settingthestageforamoreaggressiveandpossiblythreaten-ingpolicyadjustmentin2012.OutputgapsalreadyhaveturnedpositiveinmuchofEMAsiaandLatinAmerica,andthisisfeedingariseincoreinflationinbothregions.Theriseincoreinflationisbeingreinforcedbyasharpescalationinfoodprices.Ourindexofglobalagriculturalcommoditypricesclimbed30%overthepastyear,andthisrateisexpectedtodoubletonear60%overthenextsixmonths.Foodcomprises30%oftheEMconsumerbasket.KeythemesfortheyearaheadAnumberofchangesinthecompositionofgrowth,inflation,andpolicyarecentraltoourglobaleconomicoutlook.SomeofthesearehighlightedintheremainderofthisSpecialReport.EconomicResearchStrongglobalgrowthahead:
eleventhemesfor2011January7,20113JPMorganChaseBankNA,NewYorkDavidHensley(212)834-JosephLupton(1-212)834-USjoinsEMAsiaandLatinAmericaingrowthtriumvirateUSeconomicgrowthisexpectedtomatchthatoftheglobaleconomyin2011,onlythefourthtimeinthepastdecade.ThispacewillbedoublethegaininEuropeandJapan,bothofwhichwillpostonlymodestly-above-trendadvances.USmomentumalreadywasbuildingintoyear-end,reflectingthehighlyprofitablebusinesssector,stimulativepolicies,andstructuralhealing.UScompanies,havingrestoredprofitmarginstonearrecordlevelsveryearlyintherecovery,arespendingmoreaggres-sivelyonlabor,capital,andinventories.Thisisprovidingtheincomeneededtosupporthealthygainsinconsumerspending.Indeed,consumptiongrowthmayhavereached4%annualizedin4Q10.ThisdynamicisbeingpromotedbyFedpolicy,whichhasbolsteredconfidenceandthepricesofriskyassets.TheFedsactionswillbereinforcedbyanothershotoffiscalstimulusin2011duetotheunexpectedDecemberagreementontaxes.Meanwhile,structuraldragsthathadbeenholdingbacktherecoveryarefading.Householdsandfinancialinstitutionshavemadethenecessaryadjustmentstocontinueshoringuptheirbalancesheets,whilehomesalesandconstructionhavebottomed.EmergingAsiaonceagainwillseethelargestGDPgainbyregion,asin2010,joinedbyLatinheavyweightBrazil.Theseregionaleconomiesareinagrowthsweetspot,withrobustadvancesindomesticdemandreinforcedbyrecordprivatecapitalinflows,whilenotbeingencumberedbythedeleveragingandbanking-sec-tortroublesthathavehamperedgrowthintheG-3.RapidEMgrowthalsowillbesustainedbyeasypolicy.EMpolicyrateshavedriftedhigherinrecentmonthsbutremainnearall-timelowsinrealterms.Relatedly,policymakersarerestrictingtheriseintheircurrenciestosupporttheirexportsectors.Fastertighteningisontapthisyear,buttheoverallmonetarystancewillremaingrowthsupportive.Theme1:
810121416182022707580859095000510036912%shareofgrossvalueaddedUScorporateprofitshareandunemploymentrate%saUnemploymentrate(inverted)Profitshare-8-40481216200708091011%oya;USisrealgoodsPCERetailsalesvolumeUSEMAsiaRestofWorld4EconomicResearchStrongglobalgrowthahead:
eleventhemesfor2011January7,2011JPMorganChaseBankNA,NewYorkDavidHensley(212)834-JosephLupton(1-212)834-TheservicesectorcomestolifeTodate,theglobaleconomicrecoveryhasbeendominatedbydevelopmentsinthemanufacturingsector.Goodsexpenditurescollapsedduringtherecession,triggeringarecorddropinmanufacturingoutput.Soitstoodtoreasonthatabouncebackinspendingonbigticketdurableslikeautos,appliances,andcapitalequipment,aswellasbusinessinventories,wouldoccurintheearlyphaseoftherecovery.Therecoveryingoodsspendingwasmagnifiedbygovernmentstimulusprogramsaimedatboostinggoodsspending,includingwidespreadgovernmentautopurchaseschemesandJapans“eco-points”program.Bycontrast,servicesectoractivityconcentratedinthedevelopedworldhasbeenheldbackbycautiousconsumers,weakhousing,andpublicsectorcutbacks.Lookingahead,theforecastlooksfortheglobalrecoverytobroadenfrommanufac-turingtoservicesandothernonmanufacturingactivities.Wecant
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