中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献.docx
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中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献.docx
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中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献
中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献
(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)
Whatdrivesthepersistentcompetitivenessofsmallbanks?
Abstract:
Severaltrendsinthefinancialindustrycouldhaveweakenedthecompetitivenessofsmallbanksinrecentyearsincludingconsolidationandimprovedfinancialstrengthoflargebanks,competitionfromnonbankfinancialfirms,andadeclineintherealvalueofdepositinsurance.Despitethosechallenges,smallbankshavegrownmorerapidlythanlargerbanksovertheperiodfrom1985to2001,andtheirprofitabilityhasbeensustainedathighlevels.However,smallbankshaveneededtoincreasetheinterestratesofferedondepositaccountsinordertoattractprogressivelymoredepositfunding.Inthispaper,weprovideempiricalevidencethatthisincreasedinterestcostprimarilyreflectsthehigherrateofreturnthatsmallbankswereabletoearnontheirassets.Moreover,weshowwithanarbitragemodelthatthedeclineintherealvalueofdepositinsurancehasonlyasmalleffectondepositratesaslongasbankfailureratesareinthelowrangeofrecentyears.
TheFederalDepositInsuranceCorporation’s(FDIC)proposalforthemodernizationofdepositinsurancehasrecentlybeenthefocusofconsiderableattention(FDIC2000).Aspartofitsproposal,theFDICwouldraisethecurrent$100,000ceilingoncoverageinordertoaccountfortheerosionofitsrealvaluebyinflationsinceitwassetin1980(Chart1).Thedeclineintherealvalueofdepositinsurancewouldtendtoraisethecostoffundingassetswithdeposits,andthuscouldadverselyaffectbanksthattendtorelyheavilyondeposits.Largebanks,whichfundthemselvesrelativelymoreintheuninsuredwholesalemarkets,couldbelessaffectedthansmallbanks.
Thedeclineintherealvalueofdepositinsurance,however,isonlyoneofseveraltrendsinthefinancialindustrythatcouldhaveweakenedthecompetitivenessofsmallbanksinrecentyears.Amongtheseotherdevelopmentshavebeenthereturntohealthoflargebanks,numerousmergersthathaveincreasedthesizeandscopeoflargebanks,andthecontinuedincreaseincompetitionfrommutualfundsandothernonbankfinancialcompanies.
MergersandacquisitionshavereducedthenumberofbanksintheUnitedStatesfrommorethan14,000in1985toabout8,300attheendof2000,andduringthistimetheshareofdomesticbankingassetsheldbythelargest100banksrosefromabouthalftoalmostthree-fourths(Chart2).Studiesofconsolidationinthebankingindustryandofitsimpactonsmallbankcompetitivenesshavereacheddifferingconclusions.However,consolidationinteractswiththedeclineintherealvalueofdepositinsurancetocreateanotherpotentiallyadverseimpactonthecompetitivenessofsmallbanks.Thecreationof“mega-banks”increasesthepossibilitythatdepositorswouldconsidertheselargerbankstobe“toobigtofail”(TBTF),whichwouldimplicitlyconferagreaterlevelofdepositinsuranceuponlargebankcustomersthanthoseofsmallbanks.SmallerbankscontendthatanincreaseinthenominalvalueofdepositinsuranceisneededtohelpoffsetthisperceptionofaTBTFpolicy(IndependentCommunityBankersAssociation[2000]).
Theevolutionoflarge,complexbankingorganizationshasledfederalbankregulatorstowarnthattheseinstitutionscreatethepotentialforunusuallylargesystemicriskstothenationalandinternationaleconomiesshouldtheyfail(Greenspan[1999]).However,theFederalDepositInsuranceCorporationImprovementActof1991(FDICIA)circumscribedregulators’abilitytoinvokeTBTF.ItrequiredthattheFDICpursuetheresolutionmethodthatposestheleastcosttoitsinsurancefundwhendealingwithafailedbank,andstipulatedthatexceptionstothe“leastcost”methodmustgarnertheapprovalofsupermajoritiesofboththeFederalReserveandFDICboardsplusthatoftheSecretaryoftheTreasuryinconsultationwiththePresidentoftheUnitedStates.AngbazoandSaunders[1997]foundthecostoffundstolargebanksincreasedafterFDICIAwasimplemented,suggestingthatbankcreditorsbelievedthatFDICIAreducedthelikelihoodofalargebankbenefitingfromaTBTFpolicy.Moreover,bankregulatoryagenciesmaintainthatnobankistoolargeforshareholdersandnondepositliabilityholderstofacecompleteloss,andforuninsureddepositorstobesubjecttolessthan100percentreimbursement,shouldthedeclineinbankassetvaluesbelargeenough(Greenspan[2001]).
Inadditiontotheconsolidationofthebankingsystem,thecontinuedgrowthofnonbankfinancialinstitutionsmayhaveweakenedthecompetitivesituationofsmallrelativetolargebanksinrecentyears(D'AristaandSchlesinger[1993]).Althoughsavingsandloanassociations,creditunions,mutualfundsandfinancecompaniescompetewithbanksofallsizes,theylikelyposeagreatercompetitivechallengetosmallerbanks.Inadditiontobeingmoredependentondepositfundingthanthelargerbanks,smallbanksalsotendtobemoreconcentratedthanlargebanksinthetypesofloansextendedbyfinancecompanies(Dynan,Johnson,andSlowinski[2002]).Overtheperiodstudied,however,anoutrightdeclineinthriftindustryassetsoffsettheaddedcompetitionfromothertypesofnonbankfinancialcompanies,particularlymoneymarketmutualfunds.
Inthelate1980sandearly1990s,thecompetitivepositionofsmallbankslikelywasboostedasaresultofthemoreseveredeteriorationinassetqualityatlargebanks,andthewidergapatlargebanksbetweenactualcapitallevelsandthosebeingdemandedbymarketsandthenewBasleaccord(Chart3).However,thesubsequenteconomicrecoveryandbriskexpansionofthesecondhalfofthe1990scauseddelinquencyratestodropdramatically,particularlyatlargebanks.Atthesametime,thegapbetweentheleverageratiossmallbanksandlargebanksalsonarrowednoticeably,aslargebanksboostedtheircapitalfollowingtheimplementationoftheBasleAccordsin1991.
Despitetheaforementionedheadwindsaffectingsmallbanks’competitiveness,BassettandBrady[2001]foundthatsmallbankshavegrownmorerapidlythanlargerbanksovertheperiodfrom1985to2000.Moreover,theyshowedthatsmallbankshavelargelymaintainedorevenincreasedtheirlevelsofprofitabilitythroughoutmuchoftheperiodstudied,despitepayingincreasinglylargepremiumsontheirdepositsrelativetolargebanksinordertofundtheirmorerapidassetexpansion.Thepurposeofthisstudyistoextendthisresearchbymoreformallyexaminingthedifferentialimpactoftheinfluencesmentionedaboveonthecompetitiveperformanceofsmallbanksovertheperiodfromthemid-1980sto2001.
First,weemployanarbitragemodeltoexaminetherelationshipbetweenrelativeaverageinterestratesondepositsatsmallandlargebanks,thelevelofdepositinsurance,bankfailurerates,andperceptionsaboutTBTF.ThemodeldemonstratesthatthesensitivityofrelativedepositratestothelevelofdepositinsuranceorviewsabouttheimportanceofTBTFisquitelowwhenbankfailureratesarelow,astheyhavebeeninrecentyears.Wethenpresenteconometricevidencesuggestingthattherisingrelativecostofdepositsatsmallbanksvis-à-vislargebanksoverthepastdecadelargelyreflectssmallbanks’needtoattractfundingtosustaintheiraggressiveandprofitableassetexpansion.Theshareofuninsureddeposits,whichhasrisenastherealvalueofdepositinsurancehasdeclined,andamarkedimprovementinthebalancesheethealthoflargebanksduringthe1990splayedsomewhatsmallerrolesinboostingdepositratesatsmallbanks.
Thenextsectiondescribesthedatausedinthearticleandidentifiessomekeybalancesheetdifferencesbetweenlargeandsmallbanks.SectionIIIillustratesthatsmallbankshavebeenabletogrowfasterthanlargebanksbyofferingbetterdepositratesandthatthepremiumtheypayhasbeenrisingovertime.SectionIVpresentsanarbitragemodelofdepositpricingatlargeandsmallbanksthatincorporatesdepositinsuranceand“TooBigToFail”effects.SectionVpresentsregressionestimatesfromareducedformmodelofdepositratedeterminationatlargeandsmallbanks.ConclusionsarepresentedinsectionVI.
II.DataandSummaryStatistics
Exceptwhereotherwiseindicated,datainthispaperarefromthequarterlyReportsofConditionandIncome(CallReports)forthedomesticofficesofinsureddomesticallycharteredcommercialbanksandnondeposittrustcompanies(hereafter,banks).Inthisarticle,largebanksarethoseranked1through100basedonassetsatthestartofeachquarter.Smallbanksarethoserankedoutsideofthelargest1,000.Atthestartofthefourthquarterof2000,largebankshadassetsofatleast$6.94billion,whileallsmallbankshadassetsoflessthan$331million.
A.Keybalancesheetdifferencesbetweensmallandlargebanks.
Smallbanksrelyconsiderablymoreondepositsthandolargebanks.Inparticular,smalltimedeposits(thoseissuedinamountsoflessthan$100,000)fundedalmost30percentofloansandotherassetsatsmallbanksin2000,whileatlargebanksthesharewas10percent(Table1).Theshareofsmallbanks'assetsfundedwithlargetimedeposits,13percent,alsoexceedsthatatlargebanks,8percent.Otherinterest-bearingdeposits,whichconsistofsavingsandtransactionsaccounts,alsoweresomewhatmoreimportantfundingvehiclesatsmallbanks,whilenoninterest-bearingdepositsfundedcomparablesharesofsmallandlargebanks'assetsin2000.
Largebanksfundedaboutone-thirdoftheirassetswith"other"nondepositliabilitiesin2000,whereasatsmallbanksthesharewasjust3percent.SmallbanksavailedthemselvessomewhatmoreofFHLBadvances,althoug
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