ch1Introduction(中级宏观经济学,香港中文大学).pptx
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ch1Introduction(中级宏观经济学,香港中文大学).pptx
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Chapter1IntroductionWhatisMacroeconomics?
MacroeconomicsfocusesontheaggregatebehaviorofconsumersandfirmsthebehaviorofgovernmenttheoveralllevelofeconomicactivityinindividualcountriestheeconomicinteractionsamongnationstheeffectsoffiscalandmonetarypoliciesMacroeconomicsdiffersfrommicroeconomicsinthatitdealswiththeoveralleffectsoneconomicsofthechoicesthatalleconomicagentsmake,ratherthanonthechoicesofindividualconsumersorfirms.Long-rungrowthreferstotheincreaseinanationsproductivecapacityandaveragestandardoflivingoveralongperiodoftime.Businesscyclesrefertotheshort-runupsanddownsinaggregateeconomicactivity.GrossNationalProduct,EconomicGrowthandBusinessCyclesThemostbasicsetoffactsinmacroeconomicshastodowiththebehaviorofaggregateeconomicactivityovertime.Onemeasureofaggregateeconomicactivityisgrossnationalproduct(GNP).TheseriesofrealGNPpercapitafortheU.S.overtheperiod1900-2002isshowninthefigure.TwoUsefulTransformationofData1)Takingnaturallogarithmoftimeseries.Theslopeofthegraphofthenaturallogarithmofatimeseriesytisagoodapproximationtothegrowthrateofytwhenthegrowthrateissmall.Sinceifytyt-1,wehave.loglog111tttttyyyyy2)Detrendingtheprocessofdecomposingtheseriesinto2components:
thegrowth(ortrend)component,andthebusinesscyclecomponent.ThetrendinthelogofrealpercapitaGNPisshownasacoloredline,whilethelogofactualrealpercapitaGNPistheblackone.ThelowergraphshowsonlythepercentagedeviationsfromtrendinrealpercapitaGNP.MacroeconomicModelsPurpose:
Tocapturetheessentialfeaturesoftheworldneededforanalyzingaparticulareconomicproblem.Tobeusefulthen,amodelmustbesimple.Basicstructureofamacroeconomicmodel:
Theconsumersandfirmsintheeconomy,whoareassumedtooptimizeThesetsofgoodsthatconsumerswishtoconsumeConsumerspreferencesovergoodsThetechnologyavailabletofirmsforproducinggoodsTheresourcesavailableCompetitiveEquilibrium:
allagents(consumersandfirms)actasprice-takers,andpricesclearmarkets.MicroeconomicPrinciplesMacroeconomicbehavioristheaggregationofmicroeconomicdecisionsmadebyalltheconsumersandfirmsintheeconomy.Veryoften,weareinterestedinthemacroeconomiceffectsofapolicychange.Inparticular,wewanttomakepredictionsonthoseeffectsthatareconsistentwithindividualdecisions.Toachievethis,wemustworkourwayupfromdecisionmakingatthemicro-level,thenaggregatingthesedecisionstoarriveatthemacroeconomiceffectsofthepolicychange.DisagreementinMacroeconomicsThereislittledisagreementinmacroeconomicsconcerningthegeneralapproachestomodelinggrowth.Thereismuchcontroversyconcerningbusinesscycletheoryandtheroleofthegovernmentpolicyinsmoothingoutcycles:
KeynesianSticky-PriceTheory(Keynes,Hicks&Samuelson)MoneySurpriseTheory(Friedman&Lucas)RealBusinessCycleTheory(Prescott&Kydland)KeynesianCoordinationFailureTheory(Diamond,Cooper&John)Chapter2MeasurementMeasuringGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)NationalIncomeAccountingisaprocessofmeasuringthetotalquantityofgoodsandservicesproducedforthemarketinagivencountryoveragivenperiodoftime.GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)isthedollarvalueoffinaloutputproducedduringagivenperiodoftimewithinacountry.Thereare3distinctapproachestomeasureGDP:
ProductApproachExpenditureApproachIncomeApproachProductapproach:
GDPisthesumofvalueaddedtogoodsandservicesinproductionacrossallproductiveunitsintheeconomy.Remarks:
thevalueofintermediategoodsusedinproductionmustbesubtractedfromthevalueofallgoodsproducedintheeconomy,ifnottherewouldbedouble-counting.Expenditureapproach:
GDPisthetotalspendingonallfinalgoodsandservicesproductionintheeconomyTotalexpenditure=C+I+G+NXIncomeapproach:
GDPcanbecomputedbyaddingupallincomesreceivedbyeconomicagentscontributingtoproduction.Incomesinclude:
compensationofemployees,proprietorsincome,rentalincome,corporateprofits,netinterest,indirectbusinesstaxesanddepreciation.AcommonmeasureofaggregateoutputisGNP.GrossNationalProduct(GNP)measuresthevalueofoutputproducedbydomesticfactorsofproduction,whetherornottheproductiontakesplaceinsidethecountrysborders.GNP=GDP+NetfactorpaymentsfromabroadtodomesticresidentsNumericalExample1Consideraneconomyconsistingofacoconutproducer,arestaurant,consumersandagovernment.Coconutisbothanintermediategoodintherestaurantandafinalconsumptiongood.Currentyearproductionofcoconuts=10millionUnitPriceofcoconut=$2.00After-taxprofits=$13million.Quantityofcoconutsusedbytherestaurantasintermediategood=6millionOtherdatafortherestaurant:
After-taxprofit=$11million.Supposethatthegovernmentusesallthetaxrevenuetoprovidenationaldefense.Also,fortheconsumers,wehaveMethodsofComputingGDP:
TheProductApproachMethodsofComputingGDP:
TheExpenditureApproachMethodsofComputingGDP:
TheIncomeApproachLimitationsofUsingGDP1)GDPisinaccurateinmeasuringaggregateeconomicwelfarebecauseItdoesnottakeintoaccounthowincomeisdistributedwithinthepopulation.Itleavesoutallnonmarketactivity,suchashomeproduction.2)GDPisalsoinadequateinmeasuringaggregateoutputbecauseUndergroundeconomicactivitiesarenotcountedinGDP,forexampledrugdealings,baby-sittingetc.Itisdifficulttoestimatetheexactvalueofgovernmentproduction.NominalandRealGDPandPriceIndicesVeryoften,wewouldliketocomparetheGDPdataindifferenttimeperiods.Sincetheaveragelevelofpriceschangesovertime,anadditionalstepisneededtodisentangleanominalchangeinGDPfromarealchangeinGDP.AnominalchangeinGDPisachangeinGDPthatoccurredonlybecausethepricelevelchanged.ArealchangeinGDPisanincreaseinthephysicalquantityofoutput.NumericalExample2Consideraneconomyinwhichthereareonly2goods:
applesandoranges.NominalGDPinYear1=$1*50+$0.8*100=$130.NominalGDPinYear2=$1.25*80+$1.6*120=$292.%changeinnominalGDP=IfweuseYear1asbaseyear,i.e.tocomputerealGDPusingYear1prices,thenRealGDPinYear1=NominalGDPinYear1,RealGDPinYear2=$1*80+$0.8*120=$176,and%changeinrealGDPis35.4%.IfwerepeattheabovecomputationsbutusingYear2asbaseyear,thenthe%changeinrealGDPis31.2%.Problem:
Iftherelativepriceofapplestoorangeschangesovertime,thenthechoiceofbaseyearmattersforthecalculationofGDP(asshownintheaboveexample).%225%100*130$130$292$Solution:
Achain-weightingschemeforcalculatingrealGDP.Step1:
ComputetheratiosofrealGDPinyear2torealGDPinyear1usingdifferentbaseyears:
Year1asbaseyear:
g1=176/130=1.354,Year2asbaseyear:
g2=292/222.5=1.312.Step2:
Calculatethechain-weightedratioofrealGDP:
g=(g1*g2)1/2=(1.354*1.312)1/2=1.333.Step3:
Calculatethe%changeinrealGDP:
%changeinrealGDPis33.3%.Step4:
CalculaterealGDPs:
Year1Base:
130and173.29(130*1.333),Year2Base:
219.05(292/1.333)and292.MeasuresofPriceLevelApriceindexisaweightedaverageofthepricesofasetofthegoodsandservicesproducedintheeconomyoveraperiodoftime.Twocommonmeasuresofthepricelevel:
ImplicitGDPpricedeflator100*GDPRealGDPNominaldeflatorpriceGDPImplicitConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)Itisafixed-weightpriceindex,whichtakesthequantitiesinsomebaseyearasbeingthetypicalgoodsboughtbytheaverageconsumerduringthatbaseyear,andthenusesthosequantities(samebasket)asweightstocalculatetheindexineachyear.100*pricesyearbaseatquantitiesyearbaseofCostpricescurrentatquantitiesyearbaseofCostCPIyearCurrentProblemswithMeasuringRealGDPandPriceLevelIncomputingtheCPI,weimplicitlyassumethatconsumersbuyinghabitsareunaffectedbyarelativepricechange.Thismaynotberealisticbecauseconsumerstypicallywillpurchaselessofthegoodsthathavebecomemoreexpensive(substitutioneffects).Asaresult,thesegoodsreceiveahigherweightthantheyshouldintheCPI,andthustheCPI-basedmeasureoftherateofinflationwillbebiasedupward.InmeasuringrealGDP,changesinthequalityofgoodsovertimeisnottakenintoaccount.Asaresult,inflationandgrowthinrealGDPwillbebiased.AthirdproblemishowmeasuredGDPtakesaccountofnewgoods,e.g.theappearanceofpersonalcomputers.Saving,WealthandCapitalSavingisaflow,i.e.arateperunittime,whilewealthisastock,i.e.thequantityinexistenceatapointintime.LetYddenoteprivatedisposableincome.YisGDP,NFPisnetfactorpaymentsfromabroadtodomesticresidents,TRistransferfromthegovernmenttotheprivatesector,INTisinterestonthegovernmentdebt,andTistaxes.TINTTRNFPYYdPrivatesectorsaving,Sp,isgivenbyYd-C.GovernmentsavingSgisgivenbygovernmentsurplus(deficit).ThesumofSpandSgiscallednationalsaving,denotedbyS,ThequantityNX+NFPisthecurrentaccountsurplus(CA)withtherestoftheworld.Thisisameasureofthebalanceoftradeingoodswithallothercountries.IfSI,thenCA0,i.e.theexcessdomesticsavingsmustbeshippedoutsidethecountryintheformofgoodsandservices.GINTTRTSg00gSNFPNXISLaborMarketMeasurementThefollowingclassificationisadoptedbytheU.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,employed:
thosewhoworkedpart-timeorfull-timeduringthepastweek,unemployed:
thosewhowerenotemployedduringthepastweek,butactivelysearchedforworkatsometimeduringthelastfourweeks,andnotinthelaborforce:
thosewhoareneitheremployedorunemployed.LaborForce=no.oftheemployed+no.oftheunemployed.Twokeystatistics:
Unemploymentratemaynotbeanidealmeasureoflabormarkettightnessbecausedisco
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