AnalysisofFinancialStatements(英文版).pptx
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AnalysisofFinancialStatements(英文版).pptx
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RatioanalysisDuPontsystemEffectsofimprovingratiosLimitationsofratioanalysisQualitativefactors,CHAPTER3AnalysisofFinancialStatements,BalanceSheet:
Assets,2001E,2000,Cash,85,632,7,282,AR,878,000,632,160,Inventories,1,716,480,1,287,360,TotalCA,2,680,112,1,926,802,GrossFA,1,197,160,1,202,950,Less:
Deprec.,380,120,263,160,NetFA,817,040,939,790,Totalassets,3,497,152,2,866,592,LiabilitiesandEquity,2001E,2000,Accountspayable,436,800,524,160,Notespayable,600,000,720,000,Accruals,408,000,489,600,TotalCL,1,444,800,1,733,760,Long-termdebt,500,000,1,000,000,Commonstock,1,680,936,460,000,Retainedearnings,(128,584),(327,168),Totalequity,1,552,352,132,832,TotalL&E,3,497,152,2,866,592,IncomeStatement,Sales,7,035,600,5,834,400,COGS,5,728,000,5,728,000,Otherexpenses,680,000,680,000,EBITDA,627,600,(573,600),Depreciation,116,960,116,960,EBIT,510,640,(690,560),Interestexp.,88,000,176,000,EBT,422,640,(866,560),Taxes(40%),169,056,(346,624),Netincome,253,584,(519,936),2001E,2000,OtherData,2001E,2000,Sharesout.,250,000,100,000,EPS,$1.014,($5.199),DPS,$0.220,$0.110,Stockprice,$12.17,$2.25,Leasepmts,$40,000,$40,000,Standardizenumbers;facilitatecomparisonsUsedtohighlightweaknessesandstrengths,Whyareratiosuseful?
Liquidity:
Canwemakerequiredpayments?
Assetmanagement:
Rightamountofassetsvs.sales?
Whatarethefivemajorcategoriesofratios,andwhatquestionsdotheyanswer?
Debtmanagement:
Rightmixofdebtandequity?
Profitability:
Dosalespricesexceedunitcosts,andaresaleshighenoughasreflectedinPM,ROE,andROA?
Marketvalue:
DoinvestorslikewhattheyseeasreflectedinP/EandM/Bratios?
CalculateDLeonsforecastedcurrentandquickratiosfor2001.,CR01=1.85x.,QR01=,=0.67x.,CACL,$2,680$1,445,$2,680$1,716$1,445,CA-Inv.CL,Expectedtoimprovebutstillbelowtheindustryaverage.Liquiditypositionisweak.,CommentsonCRandQR,200120001999Ind.CR1.85x1.1x2.3x2.7xQR0.67x0.4x0.8x1.0x,Whatistheinventoryturnoverratiovs.theindustryaverage?
200120001999Ind.Inv.T.4.1x4.5x4.8x6.1x,Inventoryturnoverisbelowindustryaverage.DLeonmighthaveoldinventory,oritscontrolmightbepoor.Noimprovementiscurrentlyforecasted.,CommentsonInventoryTurnover,ReceivablesAveragesalesperday,DSO=44.9.,DSOistheaveragenumberofdaysaftermakingasalebeforereceivingcash.,ReceivablesSales/360,$878$7,036/360,AppraisalofDSO,DLeoncollectstooslowly,andisgettingworse.DLeonhasapoorcreditpolicy.,200120001999Ind.DSO44.939.036.832.0,F.A.andT.A.turnovervs.industryaverage,FAturnoverprojectedtoexceedindustryaverage.Good.TAturnovernotuptoindustryaverage.Causedbyexcessivecurrentassets(A/RandInv.),200120001999Ind.FATO8.6x6.2x10.0x7.0xTATO2.0x2.0x2.3x2.6x,Calculatethedebtratio,TIE,andEBITDAcoverageratios.,TotaldebtTotalassets,Debtratio=55.6%.,$1,445+$500$3,497,EBITInt.expense,TIE=5.8x.,$510.6$88,EBITDAcoverage=,=5.2x.,EBITDA+Leasepayments(incash)InterestLeaseLoanexpensepmt.repayments,+,$510.6+$117.0+$40$88+$40+$0,Toomuchdebt,butprojectedtoimprove.,Howdothedebtmanagementratioscomparewithindustryaverages?
200120001999Ind.D/A55.6%95.4%54.8%50.0%TIE5.8x-3.9x3.3x6.2xEBITDAcoverage5.2x-3.3x3.6x8.0x,Verybadin2000,butprojectedtoexceedindustryaveragein2001.Lookinggood.,Profitmarginvs.industryaverage?
200120001999Ind.P.M.3.6%-8.9%2.6%3.5%,BEP=14.6%.,BEPvs.IndustryAverage?
EBITTotalassets,$510.6$3,497,BEPremoveseffectoftaxesandfinancialleverage.Usefulforcomparison.Projectedtobebelowaverage.Roomforimprovement.,200120001999Ind.BEP14.6%-24.1%14.2%19.1%,ReturnonAssets,ROA=7.3%.,NetincomeTotalassets,$253.6$3,497,ROE=16.3%.,NetincomeCommonequity,$253.6$1,552,200120001999Ind.ROA7.3%-18.1%6.0%9.1%ROE16.3%-391.4%13.3%18.2%,Bothbelowaveragebutimproving.,ROAisloweredbydebt-interestlowersNI,whichalsolowersROA=NI/Assets.Butuseofdebtlowersequity,hencecouldraiseROE=NI/Equity.,EffectsofDebtonROAandROE,CalculateandappraisetheP/E,P/CF,andM/Bratios.,IndustryP/EratioBanking17.15ComputerSoftwareServices33.01Drug41.81ElectricUtilities(EasternU.S.)19.40InternetServices*290.35Semiconductors78.41Steel12.71Tobacco11.59WaterUtilities21.84,TypicalindustryaverageP/Eratios,*BecausemanyinternetcompanieshavenegativeearningsandnoP/E,therewasonlyasmallsampleofinternetcompanies.,NI+Depr.Sharesout.,CFpershare=$1.48.,$253.6+$117.0250,PricepershareCashflowpershare,P/CF=8.21x.,$12.17$1.48,Com.equitySharesout.,BVPS=$6.21.,$1,552250,Mkt.pricepershareBookvaluepershare,M/B=1.96x.,$12.17$6.21,P/E:
Howmuchinvestorswillpayfor$1ofearnings.Highisgood.P/CF:
Howmuchinvestorswillpayfor$1ofcashflow.Highisgood.M/B:
Howmuchpaidfor$1ofBV.Higherisbetter.P/EandM/BarehighifROEishigh,riskislow.,200120001999Ind.P/E12.0x-0.4x9.7x14.2xP/CF8.21x-0.6x8.0x11.0xM/B1.96x1.7x1.3x2.4x,()()()=ROExx=ROE.,Profitmargin,TAturnover,Equitymultiplier,NISales,SalesTA,TACE,19992.6%x2.3x2.2=13.3%2000-8.9%x2.0x21.6=-391.4%20013.6%x2.0x2.3=16.3%Ind.3.5%x2.6x2.0=18.2%,TheDuPontsystemfocuseson:
Expensecontrol(P.M.)Assetutilization(TATO)Debtutilization(Eq.Mult.),ItshowshowthesefactorscombinetodeterminetheROE.,SimplifiedDLeonData,A/R,878,Debt,1,945,OtherCA,1,802,Equity,1,552,NetFA,817,Totalassets,$3,497,L&E,$3,497,Q.HowwouldreducingDSOto32daysaffectthecompany?
Sales$7,035,600day360,=$19,543.,EffectofreducingDSOfrom44.9daysto32days:
OldA/R=19,543x44.9=878,000NewA/R=19,543x32.0=625,376Cashfreedup:
252,624Initiallyshowsupasadditionalcash.,Whatcouldbedonewiththenewcash?
Effectonstockpriceandrisk?
NewBalanceSheet,Potentialuseoffreedupcash,Repurchasestock.HigherROE,higherEPS.Expandbusiness.Higherprofits.Reducedebt.Betterdebtratio;lowerinterest,hencehigherNI.Alltheseactionswouldimprovestockprice.,Whataresomepotentialproblemsandlimitationsoffinancialratioanalysis?
Comparisonwithindustryaveragesisdifficultifthefirmoperatesmanydifferentdivisions.,“Average”performancenotnecessarilygood.Seasonalfactorscandistortratios.“Windowdressing”techniquescanmakestatementsandratioslookbetter.,Differentoperatingandaccountingpracticesdistortcomparisons.Sometimeshardtotellifaratiois“good”or“bad.”Difficulttotellwhethercompanyis,onbalance,instrongorweakposition.,Whataresomequalitativefactorsanalystsshouldconsiderwhenevaluatingacompanyslikelyfuturefinancialperformance?
Arethecompanysrevenuestiedto1keycustomer?
Towhatextentarethecompanysrevenuestiedto1keyproduct?
Towhatextentdoesthecompanyrelyonasinglesupplier?
(More),Whatpercentageofthecompanysbusinessisgeneratedoverseas?
CompetitionFutureprospectsLegalandregulatoryenvironment,
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