Uber动态溢价分析报告.pptx
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Uber动态溢价分析报告.pptx
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PeekingBeneaththeHoodofUber,LeChen,AlanMislove,ChristoWilsonNortheasternUniversity,PublishedatACMIMC2015InTokyo,TheresearchwasledbyChristoWilson,LeChen北京邮电大学信息工程东北大学博士计算机科学现任Facebook研究员主要研究:
建立方法提高黑箱算法的透明性和公平性,ChristoWilson东北大学教授计算机系主要研究:
大数据、安全、隐私的交叉领域,AlanMislove东北大学副教授计算机科学主要研究:
网络服务的安全性和隐私性,WhatisUber?
SelectapickuplocationChoosetypeofcarUberX:
cheapsedanUberSUV:
cheapSUVorvanUberBlack:
fancysedanUberXL:
fancySUVUberPool:
carpoolwithsomerandosEtcRequestandrideaway,SimpleandConvenient,Except,Marketplaces,Transparent,SupplierssettheirownpricesCustomersmayobserveallproductsandtheirprices,Opaque,SupplyanddemandarehiddenfromcustomersSuppliersdonotchoosetheirownpricesPricesaresetbyanalgorithm,Goals,DeterminehowthesurgepricingalgorithmworksDoesitworkthewayUberclaims?
Isitresponsivetochangesinsupplyanddemand?
Cansurgesbepredictedand/oravoided?
Impactofsurgesondriversandpassengers,DataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusions,DataCollection,Ubersofficialsurgepricingpatentsaysthecalculationisbasedonsupply,demand,andotherfactorsHowcanwecollectthisdata?
UberAPIPros:
easytouse,includessurgemultipliersandEstimatedWaitTimes(EWT)Cons:
nocars,demand,orsupplyinformationUberRiderApp,UberApp,PingsUbersserversevery5seconds8nearestcarsEstimatedWaitTime(EWT)Surgemultiplier,Limitations,MeasuringsupplyisstraightforwardSupply=observedcarsontheroadMeasuringdemandistrickyCarsmaygetbookedOrjustgoofflineOrdriveoutoftheareaWecanonlyestimatedemandFulfilleddemand=numberofcarsthatgoofflineUpperboundontruefulfilleddemand,LimitedVisibility,Radiusr,3pmonSunday,Recall:
theUberapponlyseesthe8closestcars,LimitedVisibility,rr,5pmonMonday,Howfarapartshouldweplaceourmeasurementspoints?
RadiusMeasurements,Carsobservedbyallapps:
Radiusr,RadiusMeasurements,Validation,Validatedmethodologyusingground-truthdatafromNYCtaxisBuiltan“Ubersimulator”andusedourmethodstomeasurethetaxisObserved97%ofsupplyand95%ofdemand,FinalDataCollection,CollectedfourmonthsofdatafromMidtownManhattanandSanFrancisco2monthsfromeachcity,43measurementpoints2ndand3rdlargestUbermarketsVerydifferentpublictransportoptionsRadiusexperiments247metersinMidtownManhattan387metersindowntownSanFrancisco,ExampleMeasurementGrid,43measurementpointsCollected2monthsofdatainMidtown,Ethics,WedidnotcollectanypersonalinformationaboutUberdriversorpassengersWeneverbookedanyridesWedidnotinduceanysurgesWeplaced40“users”inrandomlocationswithnosurge,inthemiddleofthenightDidnotobservesurgesforonehourRepeated100timesatdifferentlocationsandhours,DataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusions,ResearchQuestions,Howmuchandhowoftendoesitsurge?
Howlongdosurgeslast?
Howdosurgepricesvarybylocation?
WhatfeaturesdoesUberusetocalculatesurgeprices?
CollectedData,Howmuchdoesitsurge?
14%ofthetimeitissurginginManhattan57%ofthetimeinSFSurgemultiplierstendtobehigherinSF,Howlongdosurgeslast?
Noisiness:
70%ofsurgeslast=10minutesStaircase:
surgeslastmultiplesof5minutes,Howdoessurgevarybylocation?
Howissurgecalculated?
ManypossiblevariablesSupply,demand,EWT,etc.Usecross-correlationtoperformtime-seriesanalysis,Highcorrelationat-10minutes,Cross-correlation,(SupplyDemand)vs.Surge,EWTvs.Surge,ModeratelystrongcorrelationswhentimedifferenceiszeroSuggestsUberusesdatafromthelast5minutewindowwhencalculatingsurgeZerocorrelationinothertimewindowsSurgepricingalgorithmisresponsivebutnoisy,DataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusions,Canwepredictsurges?
UsefulvariablesSupply,demand,EWTPrevioussurgemultiplier(s)PredictivemodelsLinearandnon-linearregressionsPerformanceR2rangesfrom0.370.57Theseresultsareterrible,i.e.wecannotreliablypredictsurgesMissingsomekeyvariable(s)Unfulfilleddemand:
howmanypeopletriedtobookaridebutcouldnt?
AvoidingSurges,NoSurge!
EWT=6min,NoSurge!
EWT=3min,5min,7min,AvoidingSurges,10-15%chanceyoullsavemoneySavingsupto50%byavoidingsurges,DataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusions,ImpactonSupplyandDemand,WhydidUberimplementsurgepricing?
ToequalizesupplyanddemandReducedemandbyraisingpricesIncreasesupplybyincentivizingdriversIneconomicterms,surgepricingisaboutincentivesAretheincentivesprovidedbythesurgepricingsystemworking?
StateTransitions,Ifoneareaissurging,weexpectthefollowingfivethingstohappen(Supply)New:
carsshouldprefertocomeonlineinthesurgingarea(Supply)Move-in:
carsshoulddriveintothesurgingarea(Supply)Move-out:
fewcarsshoulddriveoutofthesurgingarea(Demand)Booked:
fewercarsshouldgetbookedinthesurgingarea(Demand)Old:
morecarsthatbeganinthesurgeareashouldremainafter5minutes,ComparingStateTransitions,(Supply)New:
carsshouldprefertocomeonlineinthesurgingarea(Supply)Move-in:
carsshoulddriveintothesurgingarea(Supply)Move-out:
fewcarsshoulddriveoutofthesurgingarea(Demand)Booked:
fewercarsshouldgetbookedinthesurgingarea(Demand)Old:
morecarsthatbeganinthesurgeareashouldremainafter5minutes,Leeetal.surveyedUberdriversandfoundthatexperts“donotchasesurges”,DataCollectionMeasuringSurgesAvoidingSurgesImpactofSurgesConclusions,Summary,FirstsystematicauditofUberssurgepricingalgorithmPricesupdateevery5minutes70%ofsurgeslast=10minutesUberdividescitiesintosurgeareasMaysavesignificantmoneybywalkingintoanadjacentareaSupplyanddemanddocorrelatewithsurgepricingResultscallthesurgepricingsystemintoquestionVeryeffectiveatsuppressingdemandNoteffectiveatincentivizingshort-termbehaviorofdrivers,ThePress,TheDrivers,TheBug,InApril2015,UberusersbegantoreceiveincorrectsurgemultipliersatrandomtimesUberconfirmedthiswasaconsistencybugintheirsystemsPricingbugexistedforover6months,onlycorrectedbecauseofourstudy,Feb15,Apr15,CDF,DurationofSurges,TheLawsuit,BothsideshavefiledbriefsthatheavilyciteourpaperOnesideusesourdatatoclaimUberisfixingpricesTheotherusesourresultstoclaimtheopposite,Thanks!
Questions?
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- 关 键 词:
- Uber 动态 溢价 分析 报告