财务分析与证券定价(英文)chapter7.pptx
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财务分析与证券定价(英文)chapter7.pptx
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PARTIITheAnalysisofFinancialStatementsTheAnalysisofFinancialStatements1KnowingtheBusinessTheProductsTheKnowledgeBaseTheCompetitionTheRegulatoryconstraintsStrategy2AnalyzingInformationInFinancialStatementsOutsideofFinancialStatements3ForecastingPayoffsSpecifyingPayoffsForecastingPayoffs4ConvertForecaststoaValuation5TradingontheValuationOutsideInvestor:
CompareValuewithPricetoBUY,SELLorHOLDInsideInvestor:
CompareValuewithCosttoACCEPTorREJECTStrategyChapter7HowbusinessactivitiesarerepresentedinfinancialstatementsChapter8HowthestatementofshareholdersequityisanalyzedChapter9AnalyzingthebalancesheetandincomestatementtorevealprofitabilityChapter10AnalyzingthecashflowstatementtoidentifycashgenerationChapter11AnalyzingprofitabilitytodiscoverwhatdrivesitChapter12AnalyzingresidualearningsgrowthtodiscoverwhatdrivesitChapter7BusinessActivitiesandFinancialStatementsLinksChapter1introducedthefirmsoperating,investingandfinancingactivities.Chapter1Aintroducedthefinancialstatements.Chapter5outlinedavaluationmodelbasedonthosefinancialstatements.LinktoPreviousChaptersThischaptershowshowthethreebusinessactivitiesaredepictedinthefinancialstatements.ItalsoshowshowthestatementsareredesignedtohighlighttheseactivitiesandtopreparethestatementsforapplyingthevaluationmodelinChapter5.ThisChapterChapters7,8and9reformulatestatementsaccordingtothedesigndevelopedinthischapter.LinktoNextThreeChaptersLinktoWebPageHowarethecashflowsofabusinessidentifiedinthecashflowstatement?
Howareoperatingandfinancingassetsandliabilitiesidentifiedinthebalancesheet?
Howareoperatingandfinancingincomeidentifiedintheincomestatement?
Whatmeasurescapturetheoperatingandfinancingprofitability?
WhatyouwilllearninthischapterHowbusinessesareorganizedtogeneratevalueforshareholdersThedifferencebetweenoperatingandfinancingaspectsofabusinessHowbusinessactivitiesarereportedinfinancialstatementsHowfinancialstatementsareorganizedtohighlightoperatingandfinancingactivitiesHowbusinessactivitiesarticulateandhowfinancialstatementsarticulateThefourcashflowsofabusinessandhowtheyrelatetoeachotherWhyfreecashflowdoesnotaffectvalueaddedWhatyouwilllearninthischapterAsetofaccountingrelationsthatsummarizehowbusinessactivitiesdrivefinancialstatementsFisnetcashflowtodebtholders(orissuers)disnetdividendtoshareholdersCashFlowsBetweentheFirmandClaimantsintheCapitalMarketsTheFirmCapitalMarketsFdNetFinancialAssetsDebtHoldersorIssuersShareHolders(NFA)FinancingActivitiesIisnetcashinvestedinoperatingassetsCisnetcash(flow)fromoperationsC-Iis“freecashflow”IfNFAarenegative,theyareNetFinancialObligations(NFO)BusinessActivities:
AlltheCashFlowsCINetOperatingAssets(NOA)TheFirmCapitalMarketsFdNetFinancialAssetsDebtHoldersorIssuersShareHolders(NFA)OperatingActivitiesFinancingActivitiesTheCashConservationEquationAfundamentalaccountingidentity:
C=NetcashfromoperationsI=Netcashoutflowforinvesting(purchases,divestments)C-I=Freecashflowd=Netdividends(includingcommondividends,stockissues.)F=Netcashoutflowfordebtfinancing(principal+interest)Thetreasurersrule:
If:
lendorbuydownowndebtIf:
borroworreducelendingCCEFdICdiICdiICFinancialActivities:
Stocks&FlowsThecashflowsflowinto/outofthefinancialassets:
theirchangemustbeexplainedbythefourflowscomponentsoftheequation.ForFinancialAssets(FA)Forfinancialobligations(FO)(itisinterestpaid)Forgiveninterestpaymentsandnetdividends,cashflowfromoperations(C)reducesborrowingandcashinvestment(I)increasesittttt1ttdiICFAFAtttt1ttdiICFOFOStatementofCashFlowsCashflowsfromoperationsCCashinvestment(I)FreecashflowC-IEquityfinancingflows:
DividendsandsharerepurchasesXXShareissues(XX)dDebtfinancingflows:
NetpurchaseoffinancialassetsXXInterestonfinancialassets(XX)Netissueofdebt(XX)InterestondebtXXFTotalfinancingflowsd+FBalanceSheetAssetsOperatingassetsOAFinancialassetsFATotalAssetsOA+FAEquitiesOperatingliabilitiesOLFinancialobligationsFOCommonstockholdersequityCSETotalEquitiesOL+FO+CSEBalanceSheetRestatedNOA=OA-OLNFA=FA-FOCSE=NOA+NFAUsuallyNFAisnegative:
NFOCSE=NOA-NFOOperatingAssetsOperatingassetsOAOperatingliabilities(OL)NetoperatingassetsNOAFinancialObligations&OwnersEquityFinancialliabilitiesFOFinancialassets(FA)NetfinancialobligationsNFOCommonequityCSETotalNFO&EquityNFO+CSEBusinessActivities:
AlltheStocks&FlowsORisoperatingrevenueOEisoperatingexpenseNFIisnetfinancialincomeDindicateschangeNFAcanbenegative(NFO)HoldersorProductandInputMarketsOROECustomersSuppliersOR-OE=OIOI-DNOA=C-IC-I-DNFA+NFI=dOperatingActivitiesFinancingActivitiesCINetOperatingAssets(NOA)TheFirmCapitalMarketsFdNetFinancialAssetsDebtIssuersShareHolders(NFA)IncomeStatementThedifferencebetweenoperatingrevenueandoperatingexpenseiscalledoperatingincome:
Netfinancingexpensecanbenegative(netfinancialincome)OEOROIIncomeStatementOperatingincomeOperatingrevenueOROperatingexpense(OE)OINetfinancingexpenseInterestexpenseXXInterestrevenue(XX)NFENetincomeNIBusinessActivitiesandtheFinancialStatementsNIt=OItNFEtCASHFLOWSTATEMENTNetOperatingAssetsNetFinancialObligationsNOAt=NOAt-1+OIt-(Ct-It)NFOt=NFOt-1-(Ct-It)+NFEt+dtCSEt=CSEt-1+OIt-NFEt-dtCt-It=dt+FtBALANCESHEETINCOMESTATEMENT-Stocks&Flows:
OperatingActivitiesThechangeinNFOisgivenbyThechangeinNOAisgivenbyOperatingincomeintheincomestatementflowstonetoperatingassetsinthebalancesheet.FreecashflowreducesNOAandreducesNFO(increasesNFA).Freecashflowcanbeseenasadividendpaidfromoperatingtofinancialactivitiesttt1ttICOINOANOAtttt1ttdFENICNFONFOTyingitTogether:
WhatGeneratesValue?
FromthebalancesheetequationGiventhewaythatNOAandNFOarecalculated,whichisthestocksandflowsequation.Forthistobetrue,however,accountingmustbeCleanSurplus.Freecashflowdropsoutinthiscalculation:
Freecashflow(C-I)doesnotaddvaluetoshareholders.Whatgeneratesvalueistheprofitfromoperatingandfinancingactivities.CSENOANFOttttt1tttt1-t1ttttt1-tttt1ttdNICSEdFENOINFONOAdNFEICNFOICOINOACSEValueAddedandAccrualAccountingOIandNFEareaccountingmeasuresandsoaredeterminedbyaccountingprinciplesNI=OI-NFEOI=(C-I)+I+newoperatingaccruals=C+newoperatingaccrualsNFE=i+newfinancingaccrualsNI=(CI)+I+I+allnewaccrualsAccrualsandtheBalanceSheetNOAt=NOAt-1+It+newoperatingaccrualstNFOt=NFOt-1-(Ct-It)+it+newfinancial+dtaccrualstandCSEt=CSEt-1+DNOAt-DNFOtStocks&FlowsRatios:
BusinessProfitabilitySeparatingoperatingandfinancingactivitiesintheincomestatementidentifiesprofitflowsComparisonoftheseflowswiththeirassetbaseyieldsthecorrespondingratesofreturn:
ReturnonNetOperatingAssetsReturnonNetFinancialAssetsIfthereareNFOratherthanNFA,netborrowingcostForecastingROCEinvolvesboththeforecastofRNOAandRNFA(orNBC)1tt21ttNOANOAOIRNOA1tt21ttNFANFAFINRNFA1tt21ttNFONFOFENNBCTheAnalystsChecklistYoushouldunderstandthefollowingfromthischapter:
HowbusinessesaresetuptogeneratevalueWhyreformattingfinancialstatementsisnecessaryforanalysisHowoperatingandfinancingactivitiesaredepictedinreformattedfinancialstatementsWhatarethefourtypesofcashflowsinabusinessHowthefourtypesofcashflowsrelatetoeachotherHowreformulatedstatementstietogetherasasetofstocksandflowsWhatdrivestheoperatingactivitiesWhatdrivesthefinancingactivitiesWhatdrivesdividendsWhatdrivesfreecashflowHowfreecashflowisdisposedofHowfreecashflowisadividendfromoperatingactivitiestothefinancingactivitiesHowthefinancialstatementsareorganizedtomeasurevalueaddedforshareholdersWhyfreecashflowdoesnotaffecttheaccountingforvalueaddedYoushouldbeabletodothefollowingafterreadingthischapter:
ApplythetreasurersruleLayouttheformofreformulatedcashflowstatements,balancesheetsandincomestatementsExplainhownetoperatingassetschangeovertimeExplainhownetfinancialobligationschangeovertimeExplainhowfreecashflowisgeneratedExplainhowfreecashflowisdisposedofAddnewaccountingrelationstoyoursetofanalyststoolsCalculatereturnonnetoperatingassetsandnetborrowingcostfromreformulatedstatements
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