宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(PPT 66页).pptx
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宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(PPT 66页).pptx
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CHAPTER5TheRealityofEconomicGrowth:
HistoryandProspect1Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsWhatismoderneconomicgrowth?
Whatwasthepost-1973productivityslowdown?
Whatwereitscauses?
Istheproductivityslowdownnowover?
Whyaresomenationsso(relatively)richandothernationsso(relatively)poor?
2Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsWhatpoliciescanmakeeconomicgrowthfaster?
Whataretheprospectsforsuccessfulandrapideconomicdevelopmentintomorrowsworld?
3Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.LookingBackintoDeepTimeUpuntil1500,therehadbeenalmostzerogrowthofoutputperworkerAfter1800,weseelargesustainedincreasesinworldwidestandardsoflivingpopulationgrowthacceleratedoutputpercapitagrew4Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Table5.1-EconomicGrowththroughDeepTime5Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.1-WorldPopulationGrowthsince10006Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.PremodernEconomic“Growth”ThomasR.Malthusfirstacademicprofessorofeconomicsintroducedtheideathatincreasesintechnologyinevitablyrunintonaturalresourcescarcityimpliesthatincreasesintechnologyleadtoanincreaseinthesizeofthepopulationbutnottoanincreaseinthestandardofliving7Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheEndoftheMalthusianAgeOvertime,therateoftechnologicalprogressroseby1500,itwassufficientlyhighsothatnaturalresourcescarcitycouldnotsurpassitsustainedincreasesinthepopulationandtheproductivityoflaborfollowed8Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheDemographicTransitionAsmaterialstandardsoflivingrisefarabovesubsistence,countriesundergoademographictransitionbirthratesrisedeathratesfallbirthratesfall9Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.2-StylizedPictureoftheDemographicTransition10Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheDemographicTransitionIntheworldtoday,notallcountrieshavegonethroughtheirdemographictransitionsNigeria,Iraq,Pakistan,andtheCongoareprojectedtohavepopulationgrowthratesgreaterthan2%peryearoverthenextgeneration11Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.3-ExpectedPopulationGrowthRates,1997-201512Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.3-ExpectedPopulationGrowthRates,1997-201513Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheIndustrialRevolutionTheindustrialrevolutionbegantheeraofmoderneconomicgrowthnewtechnologicalleapsrevolutionizedindustriesandgeneratedmajorimprovementsinlivingstandardsGreatBritainwasthecenteroftheindustrialrevolutionEnglishbecametheworldsdefactosecondlanguage14Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheIndustrialRevolutionThenewtechnologieswerenotconfinedtoGreatBritainspreadrapidlytowesternEuropeandtheUnitedStatesspreadlessrapidlytosouthernandeasternEuropeandJapan15Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.4-IndustrializedAreasoftheWorld,187016Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973GrowthinthesecondhalfofthenineteenthcenturywasfasterthanithadbeeninthefirsthalfGrowthacceleratedfurtherintheearlypartofthetwentiethcenturyasecondwaveofindustrializationoccurredfromnewinventionsandinnovations17Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973GrowthslowedslightlyduringtheGreatDepressionandWorldWarII1.4percentperyearfrom1929to1950Growthacceleratedfrom1950to197318Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.5-U.S.MeasuredEconomicGrowth:
RealGDPperWorker1995Prices,1890-199519Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973Manyeconomistsbelievethatofficialestimatesofoutputperworkeroverstateinflationandunderstaterealeconomicgrowthby1percentperyearnationalincomeaccountantshaveahardtimevaluingtheboosttoproductivityandstandardsoflivinggeneratedbynewinventions20Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973Structuralchangesalsooccurredlargedropintheproportionofthelaborforceworkingasfarmersoccurrednewmethodsoftravelweredevelopedlargenumberofinnovativetechnologiesandbusinesspracticeswereadopted21Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973TheU.S.becametheworldsleader(intermsoftechnology)duringthetwentiethcenturybecausetheU.S.hadanexceptionalcommitmenttoeducationtheU.S.wasthelargestmarketintheworldtheU.S.wasextraordinarilyrichinnaturalresources22Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973Between1973and1995measuredoutputperworkergrewatonly0.6percentperyearTheothermajorindustrialeconomiesinwesternEurope,JapanandCanadaalsoexperiencedaslowdowninproductivity23Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Table5.3-TheMagnitudeofthePost-1973ProductivitySlowdownintheG-7Economies24Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973Suggestedcausesoftheproductivityslowdownincludeenvironmentalprotectionmeasuresincreasedproblemsofeconomicmeasurementthebabyboomgenerationthetriplingofworldoilpricesin1973Theactualcauseoftheproductivityslowdownremainsamystery25Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973SlowereconomicgrowthhasmadeAmericansfeelmuchlesswelloffthantheyhadexpectedthattheywouldbeforsomeworkers,thepost-1973productivityslowdownhasbeenaccompaniedbystagnantordecliningrealwagesincreasedincomeinequalityhasalsooccurred26Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.6-MeasuredRealMeanHouseholdIncome,byQuintile27Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973Since1995,productivitygrowthintheU.S.hasacceleratedtoapaceof2.1percentperyearInvestmentbeganrisingin1992businessfixedinvestmentgrewatalmostthreetimestherateofGDPmuchoftheadditionalinvestmenthasgonetopurchasecomputersandrelatedequipment28Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorldTheindustrialcoreoftheworldeconomyexperiencedalargeincreaseinitslevelofmaterialproductivityandlivingstandardsduringthenineteenthandtwentiethcenturiesElsewherethegrowthofproductivitylevelsandlivingstandardswasslowerTheworldhasbecomeamoreandmoreunequalplace29Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.7-WorldDistributionofIncomeToday,SelectedCountries30Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.7-WorldDistributionofIncomeToday,SelectedCountries31Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorldTheU.S.hasnotbeenthefastest-growingeconomyintheworldanumberofothercountriesatdifferentlevelsofindustrialization,development,andmaterialproductivityacenturyagohavenowconvergedtheircurrentlevelsofproductivity,economicstructures,andstandardsoflivingareveryclosetothoseoftheU.S.32Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure5.8-ConvergenceamongtheG-7Economies:
OutputperCapitaasaShareofU.S.Level33Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorldTheeconomiesthathaveconvergedbelongtotheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)groupofcountriesthatgaveorreceivedaidundertheMarshallPlantohelprebuildorreconstructafterWorldWarII34Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorldTheOECDcountriesadoptedacommonsetofeconomicpolicieslargeprivatesectorsfreeofgovernmentregulationofpricesinvestmentwithitsdirectiondeterminedbyprofit-seekingbusinesseslargesocialinsurancesystemstoredistributeincomegovernmentscommittedtoavoidingmassunemployment35Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorldTheOECDcountriesendedupwithmixedeconomiesmarketsdirecttheflowofresourcesgovernmentsstabilizetheeconomy,providesocial-insurancesafetynets,andencourageentrepreneurshipandenterprise36Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorldAstheOECDcountriesbecamericher,theycompletedtheirdemographictransitionsThepolicyemphasisonfreeenterpriseboostedinvestmentSteady-statecapital-outputratiosroseDiffusionoftechnologyfromtheU.S.occurred37Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorldEconomicgrowthhasnotbeenlimitedtoOECDcountriessinceWorldWarII,severalcountriesineastAsiahaveexperiencedstrongergrowththanhaseverbeenseenanywhereinworldhistorythesesuccessfuleastAsiancountriesaresomewhatsimilartotheOECDeconomiesintermsofeconomicpolicyandstructure38Copyright2002byT
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