2023全球零售力量年度报告.pdf
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2023全球零售力量年度报告.pdf
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GlobalPowersofRetailing2023RevenuegrowthandcontinuedfocusonsustainabilityFebruary2023ForewordbyEvanSheehan3Top250quickstatistics4GlobaleconomicoutlookbyDr.IraKalish5Top10highlights7Sustainabilityinretail15FutureoftheStore30Top25036Geographicanalysis51Productsectoranalysis58Newentrants62Fastest5064Studymethodologyanddatasources69References71Contacts7302GlobalPowersofRetailing2023|ContentsContentsFeaturedretailexecutiveinterviewsCarolineLaurieBurberryDaniellaVegaAholdDelhaizeJavierLosadaInditexMaureenEricksonLululemonVincentViviersPicknPayDonaldMcDonaldBrownThomasGlobalPowersofRetailing2023|ForewordForewordInayearofstrongyear-on-yeargrowthinretailrevenueacrossthetop250,weseethatsustainabilityremainshighontheagenda.Severalplayersareworkingontheresaleofslightlyusedgoodsandweseemanytechnology-enabledinnovations.Successfulretailerscombinetechnologywiththehumanfactortoprovideoptimalcustomerexperience.AmongtheFastest50,themaindriversofgrowthweretheluxurybrands,e-commerceprovidersanddepartmentstores.EvanSheehanGlobalRetail,Wholesale&DistributionLeaderatDeloitte0304GlobalPowersofRetailing2023|Top250quickstatisticsGlobalPowersofRetailing2023Top250RetailersshowsignificantrevenuegrowthTop250RetailersUS$45bilionMinimumretailrevenueUS$22.6billionAverageretailrevenueUS$572.7billionMaximumretailrevenueYear-on-yearrevenuegrowthofTop250retailersCompositenetprofitmarginofTop250retailers*financialyearsendingwithin12monthsfrom1July2021to30June2022*financialyearsendingwithin12monthsfrom1July2020to30June2021Retailersprepareforthefutureofthestore“Customerslovetheirpersonalexperienceatourexperientialstore,andweveensuredthatourdigitalchannelssupportthisin-storeexperience.”DonaldMcDonald,ManagingDirectorofBrownThomas73%ofConsumerCXOshaveincreasedinvestmentsinsustainabilityoverthelastyear“OurLikeNewprogramallowsgueststoextendthelifeofourproductsbybuyinglululemonLikeNewortradinginlululemongearwhentheyaredonewithit.”MaureenErickson,SeniorVicePresidentGuestInnovationatlululemonHardlinesandleisuregoodsApparelandaccessoriesDiversifiedFMCGApparelandaccessoriesretailersshowedfastestyear-on-yeargrowth31.3%15.6%9.3%5%05GlobalPowersofRetailing2023|GlobaleconomicoutlookGlobaleconomicoutlookInflationshouldrecede.Thefactorsthatdroveinflationin2021-22arealreadyreversing.Thesefactorsincludedthefollowing:
supplychaindisruption,increasesincommodityprices,andexpansivefiscalandmonetarypolicy.Moreover,inflationhasalreadypeakedintheUnitedStatesandmaysoonpeakinEurope.InflationremainsmoribundinJapanandChina.ExpectarapiddeclineininflationintheUnitedStatesandamoremoderatedeclineinEurope.Theexpectationofthispatternisalreadyembeddedinbondyields,whichiswhytheyremainrelativelylow.Supplychainsshouldstabilize.Weakeningglobaldemandcombinedwithincreasedcapacitytoproduceanddistributemanufacturedgoodsarealreadycausingadeclineindelays,shortages,andcostsofshipping.OncetheCOVID-19pandemicsituationstabilizesinChina,supplychainsinChinawillalsonormalize.Thismayhelptoeaseinflationandremovebottlenecksthatinhibitoutputinsomeindustries.Ontheotherhand,fraughtpoliticalrelationsbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesmayleadmanycompaniestobuyaninsurancepolicyagainstpoliticalriskbydiversifyingsupplychains.ThiscouldlikelymeanfurtheroutflowsofcapitalfromChinaandmoreinvestmentinsupplychainprocessesinSoutheastAsia,India,CentralEurope,andespeciallyMexico.Labormarketsshouldremaintight.Inmanycountries,laborhasbeeninshortsupplyastheworldrecoversfromtheCOVID-19pandemic.Thishasbeenduetoreducedlaborforceparticipation,continuedCOVID-19-relatedillnesses,andasharpdeclineinmigration.Thesefactorsarenotlikelytochangesoon.Thus,evenamidstconcernaboutrecession,jobgrowthcontinuestoberelativelystrongandunemploymentlow.Manycompanies,fearfulofpersistentshortagesoflabor,areprobablyhiringtohoardlaborthatmightbeneededwhentheeconomyrebounds.Notably,despitetightnessinthelabormarket,wageshavefailedtokeeppacewithinflationinmostadvancedeconomies.Theresulthasbeenweakerconsumerspending.In2023,asinflationrecedes,itislikelythatwagegrowthwillultimatelyexceedinflation.Thisshouldboostconsumerspending.Itmayalsoputpressureonbusinessestoaccelerateinvestmentinlaborsavingtechnology.Centralbanksshouldstoptightening.Weknowthatmonetarypolicyactswithalag.Thus,itispossiblethatthesharpincreaseinbenchmarkinterestratesin2022wassufficienttoquellfutureinflation.Still,itislikelythatmajorcentralbankswillcontinuetoraiseratesinearly2023,ifonlytoanchorexpectationsofinflation.Theymaylikelystopthisprocessinthefirsthalfoftheyearandwaittoseethefruitsoftheirlabor.Centralbankswilllikelystarttoreduceratesin2024.TheUSmayavoidrecession.SixtypercentoftheUSpopulationbelievesthatthecountryisalreadyinrecession.Andyettheeconomyhasshownremarkableresilience.Despitedecliningrealwages,realconsumerspendinghasgrownassomeconsumershavedippedintotheirsaving.Despitehigherborrowingcosts,businessinvestmenthasgrownasmanybusinesseshavedippedintotheircashreservesandfocusedonthelongerterm.Theonlymajorsectortoexperienceasharpcontractionhasbeenhousing,largelyduetohighermortgageinterestrates.Withoutadoubt,USgrowthin2023maybeslowerthanin2022duetotighteningmonetaryandfiscalpolicy.Yetarecessionmightbeavoidedduetodecliningenergyprices,strongemploymentgrowth,andeasingofsupplychainstress.Still,arecessionremainsapossibility.ByDr.IraKalishChiefGlobalEconomist,DeloitteGlobalJanuary2023Whatshouldweexpectin2023?
Itseemslikelythatthenewyearmay,inpart,becharacterizedbyareversalorstabilizationofsomeoftheeventsof2022.Thesecouldincludearapidincreaseininflation,surgesincommodityprices,tighteningofmonetarypolicy,andsubstantialsupplychaindisruption.Sometrends,however,arelikelytopersist.Theseincludetightlabormarkets,thebiggestlandwarinEuropesince1945,aslowdownofChinaseconomy,increaseduseofindustrialpolicyandsanctions,andeconomicdisruptionfromclimatechange.Here,then,arepredictionsforthenewyear:
06GlobalPowersofRetailing2023|GlobaleconomicoutlookEuropemayexperiencerecession.EuropeisdifferentfromtheUnitedStates.Asrealwageshavefallen,realconsumerspendinghasfallen.And,althoughenergypriceshavefallenfromtheirpeaks,naturalgaspricesremainhistoricallyelevated,therebyhelpingtofuelinflationandreducepurchasingpowerforconsumersandbusinesses.Theenergyshock,aresultoftheconflictinUkraine,couldplaytheleadingroleindrivingarecessioninEurope.Inaddition,tighteningofmonetarypolicybytheECBandtheBankofEnglandwillplayarole.Plus,althoughmanyEuropeangovernmentsareofferinglargesubsidiestooffsethighenergyprices,thetrajectoryoffiscalpolicyremainscontractionary.AlthoughEuropeangovernmentshavetakenstrongmeasurestoprotecttheireconomiesfromtheenergyshock,itislikelythatelectricitypricescouldremainrelativelyelevatedforaprolongedperiod.Thus,manycompaniesinheavyindustry,whichusedtobenefitfromaffordableRussianenergy,areincreasinglylookingoutsideofEuropeforinvestmentopportunities.ThiscouldhaveanegativeimpactonthefutureofEuropeanmanufacturing.Chinamayreboundonlymodestly.Withtherelaxationofpandemic-relatedrestrictions,Chinaislikelytoseeamodestreboundineconomicactivityin2023butnotimmediately.Fornow,themassiveoutbreakofinfectionsissuppressingmobilityandproduction,theresultofwhichislikelytobetemporarilysuppressedeconomicactivity.Yetoncethiscycleoftheoutbreakrecedes,itislikelythatpent-upconsumerdemandwillboostspending.Still,Chinafacesseveralheadwindsthatmayrestraingrowthin2023.Theseincludeatroubledpropertymarket,weakerglobaldemand,anoutflowofcapitalbyglobalbusinesses,andafraughtrelationshipbetweenChinaandtheWestthatinvolvesrestrictionsoncross-bordertradeandinvestment.Japanshouldstabilize.JapanseconomyisacceleratingfromalowbaseasCOVID-relatedrestrictionsdecreaseandpent-updemandisunleashed.Still,Japanseconomymayfaceheadwindsfromaweakenedglobaleconomy.Thus,growthislikelytoremainmodest.Meanwhile,inflationhasacceleratedfromalowbaseduetosupplychaindisruptionandhigherenergyprices.TheBankofJapanhaspartiallyreverseditseasymonetarypolicy,therebyprovidingaboosttothevalueoftheyen.Indiashouldgrowstrongly.In2023,Indiamaybecomethemostpopulatedcountryintheworld,surpassingChina.TheIMFestimatesthatthiscouldhappeninApril.Intheyearstocome,whileChinaspopulationdeclines,Indiasshouldcontinuetogrowwellintothesecondhalfofthiscentury.Thisdemographicshiftcouldhaveimplicationsfortheglobaleconomy.Iffornootherreasonthandemographics,ChinamaygrowmoreslowlywhileIndiaseconomymaygrowfasterasdomesticconsumerdemandbecomesaprominentgrowthdriver.Thisisalreadythecase.Indeed,Indiaiscurrentlyoneofthefastestgrowingmajoreconomiesintheworld.ItisimportingrelativelyaffordableoilfromRussia,therebyhelpingtolimittheimpactoftheenergyshockonitseconomy.SincetradeasashareofGDPislowerthaninmostcountries,thisshouldshieldIndiafromthenegativeconsequencesofaglobalslowdown.Therateofinflation,a
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