An affordability crisis in British housing.docx
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An affordability crisis in British housing.docx
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AnaffordabilitycrisisinBritishhousing
AnaffordabilitycrisisinBritishhousing:
Dimensions,causesandpolicyimpact.By:
Bramley,Glen,HousingStudies,02673037,Jan94,Vol.9,Issue1
ABSTRACTThisarticlearguesthattheBritishhousingsystemexperiencedacrisisofaffordabilityinthelate1980sandearly1990s,manifestedinseveraldistinctways,andsimilartoproblemsexperiencedinsomeothercountries.Acombinationofcircumstancesproducedthiscrisis,includingchangesindemography(人口),incomedistribution,housingsupplyandtenure(使用期),butfinancialderegulationwasparticularlyimportant.Housingaffordabilitybecameamoresignificantpolicyissuewhentheimpactonthenormalfunctioningoftheowneroccupiermarketbecamesevereandwhenthemacro-economicfeedbackeffectswereperceivedasserious.Anumberofspecificpolicychangesresultedfromthiscrisis,someofwhichmayprovetobeenduring.
Introduction
TheBritishhousingmarketinthelate1980sandearly1990sexperiencedanalmostunprecedentedsetofchangesandpressures.Manyoftheserevolvedaround(以。
。
。
为中心)theabilityorotherwiseofpeopletoaffordhousing,whetheraswould-bebuyerspricedoutintheboom,recentbuyerslosingtheirhomethroughmortgagedefaultortrappedby'negativeequity',ortenantsaffectedbyderegulationandmuchhigherrentlevels.Theterm'affordability'becamecommonplace,inbothpopularandprofessionaldiscoursesabouthousing,andevenbegantofeatureinofficialpolicyinstruments,atatimewhenhousingissuescamebackontothepolicyagendainarathermorenoticeablewaythanforanumberofyears.Onthefaceofit,onecouldcharacterisewhathashappenedasan'affordabilitycrisis'inhousing,withquitewide-rangingeffects.Whilethecrisismayhavepassed,likeafreak(奇异的)waveinthenight,someofitsconsequencesremainfloatinginitswakeandmayturnouttoberatherenduring.
Thisarticleexaminesthisproposition(论点,主张)insomedetail,referringtosomekeyfactsaboutrecentdevelopmentsandtotheinterpretationsofothercommentators.Fourmainquestionsareaddressed:
(a)WasthereahousingaffordabilitycrisisinBritaininthelate1980s?
Whatwerethedimensionsandscaleoftheproblems,intermsofhousingproduction,access,costandconsumptionindifferenttenuresandregions?
(b)Whywasthereacrisis?
Whatcombinationofcircumstancesinhousingfinancesystemsandthehousingmarketproducedthisoutcome?
(c)Whydiditbecomeapolicyissue,whenitdid,andinthewaythatitdid?
(d)Whatchangesinpolicyresulted?
Howenduring(持久的)aretheselikelytobe?
Fourmainsectionsofthearticlediscusseachofthesequestionsinturn.Butbeforeproceedinginthiswayitisnecessarytosaysomethingabouttheconceptof'affordability'itself.
Whatisaffordability?
Itisonlyratherrecentlythat'affordability'hasbecomeacommonterminhousingpolicyinBritain(Whitehead,1991),althoughitisrecognisedthatithasbeenimportantinanumberofothercountriesforlonger.ForAmericanperspectivesonaffordabilityseeLinneman&Megbolugbe(1992)andHousingPo[icyDebate,2:
2,(Washington:
OfficeofHousingPolicy,FannieMae,1991);seeYates(1999)foranAustralianperspective;MacLennan&Williams(1990a,1990b)representrecentcomparativecollectionsonthistheme.Inspiteofofficialpolicies,forexampleonhousingassociationrents,whichappealtotheafford-abilityconcept,thereisaconspicuous(明显的)lackofapublicly-statedofficialdefinition.Thereare(different)implicitdefinitionswhichcanbeteasedoutofcertainpolicies,particularlythosegoverningtheratesofgrantstohousingassociations(HAG)andthedesignoftheHousingBenefit(HB)scheme.Butthelackofofficialclarityondefinitionsreflectsinherentambiguitiesintheconceptaswellaspoliticalcautionorexpediency.
Broadlyspeaking,affordabilitymaybedefinedwithineitheranormativeorabehaviouralframework.Normative(标准的)definitionstendtodefinethelimitsornormsofaffordabilityintermsofcertainratios.Forexample,ratiosof(net)rentorhousingcostto(net)incomearecommonlyusedforthispurpose(NationalFederationofHousingAssociations,1990,1992).However,thebasisforsuchratiosisoftennotveryexplicit(明晰的),andmaysimplyreferacrosstoothercasesorobservedaveragesorargumentsoffairness;forexample,itmaybearguedthattenantsshouldnothavetopayasmuchasnewowneroccupiers,butthisdoesnotrefertowhattheycouldaffordtopayifpressed.Thereisnoapparentconsensus(一致)aboutwhattherightratioofrenttoincomeis,withtheNFHAarguingfor20-22percentagainstthegovernment'simplicit33-34percent.
Itseemstoboththisauthorandothers(e.g.Hancock,1991)thatthemostcoherentnormativeconceptofaffordabilityisonethatlinksnormativejudgementsabouthousingneeds/standardswithjudgementsaboutminimumincomerequirementsfornon-housingconsumption.Thisimpliesthathousingafford-abilityiscloselyboundupwiththedefinitionofapovertyline,andthatthekeyratiosarelikelytobeexpressedintermsofresidualincome(afterhousingcosts)relativetothatline.Ingeneral,thereislessconsensusaboutpovertylinedefinitionthanaboutbasichousingstandards,andnormativeneed-typestatementslosemuchoftheirforceiftheydonotreflectconsensus(Bramley,1990,Ch.3)
Adefinitionofthiskindimpliesthataffordabilityisnotawhollyalternativebasisforhousingpolicyfromthetraditionalbasis,importantinBritain,ofnormafivehousingneeds(Whitehead,1991).Butitdoesrunintoanimmediateproblemwiththedesignoftheindividual,means-testedHBsystem.TheHBsystemisintendedtoensurethat,ingeneral,householdsatorbelowtheofficialincomesupportpovertylinehavealltheirhousingcostsmetandarebroughtuptothatlevel.Householdsabovethatlevelhavetheirbenefitwithdrawnatafairlysteeprate.Thisimpliesthat,usingtheofficialpovertyline,thereisnoaffordabilityproblem,exceptperhapsamonggroups(e.g.someowneroccupiers)whoarenoteligible.Usingamoregeneroustargetratio,asinsomepovertystudies,isclearlyatvariancewiththeverystrongbenefittaperdesignedintothesystem,whichhastheeffectofkeepingmostHB-dependenthouseholdsveryclosetothepovertyline.Atthebottomendofthehousingmarket,sofarastenantsareconcerned,HB'dealswith'affordabilityinawaywhichmakesitdifficulttoputforwardanalternativenorm.Rentsinthesocialsectorhaverisensteeplysince1988,butHBhas'takenthestrain'(NationalFederationofHousingAssociation,1992).Theproblembecomesmoreoneofdependencyonabenefitwhichreinforcesapovertytrap,withveryhigheffectivemarginalratesoftaxonpotentialworkinghouseholds.
Analternative,orcomplementary,approachtoaffordabilitywouldbetolookatbehaviour.Ontheonehandthiscouldfocusonnormalhousingconsumerdecisions,lookingatwhathouseholdswithgivenincomesandcharacteristics,facinggivenprices,choosetospend.Ontheother,itcouldanalysetheevidenceofhousingproblems,peoplewhoappeartoexhibitproblemsactuallypayingfortheirhousing,notablythoseinarrearswithrentsormortgages.Dothepatternsofincidenceofsuchproblemsindicatecriticalthresholds?
Ifso,thebehaviouralevidencecanthenhelptofinetunethenormativeratios.
Macro-economicmodelsreportedbelowshowaggregaterelationshipsbetweenfactorslikemortgagepaymenttoincomeratiosandarrears/repossessions.(按揭贷款收入比和欠款)Micro-levelevidenceisalsobecomingavailablefromcertainsurveys.ThePSICreditandDebtstudy(Berthoud&Kempson,1992)foundthatproblemmortgagearrearscouldbereasonablymodelledandthatthemainfactorswere:
residualequivalentincomeaftermeetingcommitments;presenceofyoungchildren;subjectiveprioritygiventomeetingcommitments.Factorslikemarriagebreakdownandjoblosswereclearlyimportant,butmainlychannelledthroughthebasicincomefactor.IntherecentRowntreehousingfinancesurveyinBristolthemostcommonself-reportedreasonsformortgagepaymentproblemswerehigherinterestrates(35percent),jobloss(26percent),reducedincome(19percent),lowincome(15percent),illnessandhouseholdsplit(9percenteach).Problemsandarrearswereassociatedwithsingleparentsandlargerfamilies,newbuyers,higherpayment:
incomeratios,andhighapparentgearing.Ford&Wilcox(1992)isanotherrecentstudyofmortgagearrearscases,whichalsohighlightslowincome,unstableemployment,presenceofchildren,andotherfinancialcommitments.
Itistemptinginsomewaystosaythattherearetwodifferentaffordabilityproblems,distinguishinglowincomerentersandhowtheirrentsandbenefitsaffecttheirresidualincomearidpovertyposition,frommiddleincomewould-befirsttimebuyerswhofacevaryingdegreesofproblemgainingaccesstothemainstreamtenureofowneroccupationandwhoarealsosensitivetovariationsininterestrates.InthedifferentAmericancontext,Linneman&Megbolugbe(1992)arguethattherearetwoproblems,oneofwhichismorerealthantheother:
Housingaffordabilityispartlyarealissueandpartlyanissuemanufacturedbymiddle-classandaffluentyoungadultswithever-growingexpectations.Downpaymentconstraintsarebindingformanyyoungerlower-andmiddle-incomehouseholdswhofindthemselvespostponinghomeownership....Housingaffordabilityforlow-incomefamiliesremainsprimarilyaproblemofincomeinadequacy.(p.388)
Thisdivisionoftheproblemmaybeseentoberelatedtothedevelopmentofseparatestrandsofpolicy.Thelowincomerentersproblemis
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