东南亚和中欧的天然气供应方案的评价.docx
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东南亚和中欧的天然气供应方案的评价.docx
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东南亚和中欧的天然气供应方案的评价
EnergyConversionandManagement
Volume49,Issue8,August2008,Pages2345–2353
EvaluationofnaturalgassupplyoptionsforSoutheastandCentralEurope:
Part2.Multi-criteriaassessment
NaimH.Afgana,
MariaG.Carvalhob,
PetrosA.Pilavachic,
NelsonMartinsd,
aTechnicalUniversityofLisbon,Av.RoviscoPais1049-001,Lisbon,Portugal
bBEPA–BureauofEuropeanPolicyAdvisers,EuropeanCommission,Brussels,Belgium
cUniversityofWesternMacedonia,Kozani,Greece
dUniversityofAveiro,EngenhariaMecânica,CampusSantiago,3810-193Averio,Portugal
Received3June2007.Accepted14January2008.Availableonline7March2008.
http:
//dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2008.01.024,HowtoCiteorLinkUsingDOI
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Abstract
Decisionmakingmethodsareusedasatoolfortheselectionofalternativestobeevaluatedonthebasisofseveralcriteria.EvaluationofthepotentialroutesfornaturalgassupplytotheSoutheastandCentralEuropeancountriesisstudiedusingsingleandmulti-criteriaevaluation.Thepotentialoptionsincludedinthisanalysisarethe:
YamalRoute;NabuccoRoute;WestBalkanRoute;LNGNeumRoute;andGasbyWireRoute.Inpart1,thepaperwasdevotedtothedefinitionoftheindicatorsandtosingleindicatoranalysis.Inpart2,theanalysisisbasedonmulti-criteriaevaluation,whichcomprisesthepossibilitytoassesstheoptionsunderpredefinedconstraintsamongstindicators.Thepaperalsodescribesdifferentmethodsusedformulti-criteriaevaluation.Thisanalysisfocusesoncaseswithdifferentprioritiesdefinedamongindividualweightingcoefficientswiththeothershavingthesamevalue.Itwasshownthatalloptionsunderspecificconstraintscanbequalifiedaspromisinginthedecisionmakingprocess.Itisalsoconcludedthatfavouriteindicatorconstraintsmayexaggeratesomeoptions.
Keywords
Naturalgasrouteevaluation;
Decisionmakingmethods;
SoutheastEurope
1.Introduction
Decisionmakingmethodsareusedasatoolforselectionandrankingofalternativesonthebasisofanevaluationwithseveralcriteria.Extensivestudiesdevotedtotheoverviewofmulti-criteriadecisionmethods,appliedtotheanalysisofsustainableenergysystemscanbefoundatRefs.[1]and[2].Decisionsare,mosttimes,basedonatradeofforcompromiseamongstanumberofcriteria,whichareinconflictwitheachother.Thesemethodsprovideabetterunderstandingoftheinherentfeaturesofdecisionproblems,promotetheroleofparticipantsindecisionmakingprocesses,facilitatecompromiseandcollectivedecisionsandprovideagoodplatformforunderstandingtheperceptionofmodelsbyanalystsinarealisticscenario.Asinglecriterionapproach,aimedtoidentifythemostenergyefficientsupplyoptionatlowcosthasbeenquitepopular.However,inthe1980s,agrowingenvironmentalawarenesshasslightlymodifiedtheabovedecisionframework[3].Theneedtoincorporateenvironmentalandsocialconsiderationsinenergyplanningresultedinanincreasinguseofmulti-criteriaapproaches.
Multi-attributedecisionmakingandthemulti-objectivedecisionmakingareamongthemulti-criteriadecisionmakingmethods.Multi-objectivelinearprogrammingisaplanningmethodologyusedforillustratingthetradeoffbetweenenvironmentalandeconomicparametersandforassistingintheselectionofacompromisesolution[4],[5]and[6].Thiswaspopularinenergyplanningwithconventionalfuelsinthe1970s.
Nowadays,renewableenergysourcesarebeingpromotedforawidevarietyofapplicationsworldwide.Thiscompelsplannersanddecisionmakerstoidentifythebarriersforpenetrationandsuggestinterventionstoovercomethem.Theroleofdifferentactorsindecisionmaking,thus,becomesimportant.Methodsofgroupdecisionsare,therefore,ofprimaryinterestforimplementationofthedecisionsciencesinreallifeproblems.
1.1.Multi-criteriadecisionmaking(MCDM)
Multi-criteriadecisionmakingisawellknownbranchofdecisionmaking.Itisabranchofageneralclassofoperationalresearchmodels,whichdealwithdecisionproblemsunderthepresenceofanumberofcriteria.ThismajorclassofmodelsisveryoftencalledMCDM.Thisisfurtherdividedintomulti-objectivedecisionmaking(MODM)andmulti-attributedecisionmaking(MADM)methods[7].Multi-criteriadecisionmaking(MCDM)methodsdealwiththeprocessofmakingdecisionsinthepresenceofmultipleobjectives.Adecisionmakerisrequiredtochooseamongquantifiableornon-quantifiableandmultiplecriteria.
Thereareseveralmethodsineachoftheabovecategories.Prioritybased,outranking,distancebasedandmixedmethodsarealsoappliedtovariousproblems.Eachmethodhasitsowncharacteristics,andthemethodscanalsobeclassifiedasdeterministic,stochasticandfuzzy.Theremaybecombinationsoftheabovemethods.Dependinguponthenumberofdecisionmakers,themethodscanbeclassifiedassingleorgroupdecisionmakingmethods.Decisionmakingunderuncertaintyanddecisionsupportsystemsarealsoprominentdecisionmakingtechniques[8].
1.2.Theeliminationandchoicetranslatingreality(ELECTRE)
TheELECTREmethodiscapableofhandlingbothquantitativeandqualitativediscretecriteriaandprovidescompleteorderingofthealternatives.Theproblemistobeformulatedinsuchawaythatitchoosesalternativesthatarepreferredovermostofthecriteriaandthatdonotcauseanunanticipatedlevelofdiscontentforanyofthecriteria.Concordance,discordanceindicesandthresholdvaluesareusedinthismethod.Basedontheseindices,graphsforstrongandweakrelationshipsaredeveloped.Thesegraphsareusedinaniterativeproceduretoobtaintherankingofthealternatives[9].Thisindexisdefinedintherange0–1,providesajudgmentonthedegreeofcredibilityofeachoutrankingrelationandrepresentsatesttoverifytheperformanceofeachalternative.Finally,theELECTREmethodyieldsawholesystemofbinaryoutrankingrelationsbetweenthealternatives.Becausethesystemisnotnecessarilycomplete,theELECTREmethodissometimesunabletoidentifythepreferredalternative.Itonlyproducesacoreofleadingpossibilitiesbyeliminatinglesseralternativesinadecisionmakingproblem[10].
1.3.Preferencerankingorganizationmethodforenrichmentevaluation(PROMETHEE)
ThePROMETHEEmethodusestheoutrankingprincipletorankthealternativesandcombineseaseofuseanddecreasedcomplexity.Itperformsapairwisecomparisonofthealternativesinordertorankthemwithrespecttoanumberofcriteria.Bransetal.[11]haveofferedsixgeneralizedcriteriafunctionsforreference,namely,usualcriterion,quasi-criterion,criterionwithlinearpreference,levelcriterion,criterionwithlinearpreferenceandindifferenceareaandGaussiancriterion.ThemethodusesapreferencefunctionPj(a,b),whichisafunctionofthedifferenceδjbetweentwoalternativesforanycriterionj,i.e.δj=f(a,j)−f(b,j),wheref(a,j)andf(b,j)arevaluesofthetwoalternativesaandbforcriterionj.Theindifferenceandpreferencethresholdsq′andp′arealsodefineddependinguponthetypeofcriterionfunction.
1.4.Analyticalhierarchyprocess(AHP)
TheanalyticalhierarchyprocesswasdevelopedbySaaty[12]and[13].Theessenceoftheprocessisthedecompositionofacomplexproblemintoahierarchywithgoal(objective)atthetopofthehierarchy,criteriaandsub-criteriaatlevelsandsub-levelsofthehierarchyanddecisionalternativesatthebottomofthehierarchy.Theelementsatagivenhierarchylevelarecomparedinpairstoassesstheirrelativepreferenceswithrespecttoeachoftheelementsatthenexthigherlevel.Theprocedureisrepeatedupwardsforeachleveluntilthetopofthehierarchyisreached.Theoverallweightcoefficientwithrespecttothegoalforeachdecisionalterativeisthenobtained.Thealterativewiththehighestweightcoefficientvalueshouldbetakenasthebestalternative.OneofthemajoradvantagesoftheAHPisthatitcalculatestheinconsistencyindexasaratioofthedecisionmaker’sinconsistencyandrandomlygeneratedindex.Thisindexisimportantforthedecisionmakertoassurehimthathisjudgmentswereconsistentandthatthefinaldecisioniswellmade.
1.5.Multi-attributeutilitytheory(MAUT)
Multi-attributeutilitytheorytakesintoconsiderationthedecisionmakers’preferenceintheformoftheutilityfunctionthatisdefinedoverasetofattributes.Theutilityvaluecanbedeterminedthroughsingleattributeutilityfunctionsfollowedbyverificationofpreferentialandutilitydependentconditionsandderivationofmulti-attributeutilityfunctions.Theutilityfunctioncanbeeitheradditivelyseparableormultiplicativelyseparablewithrespecttosingleattributeutility.Themultiplicativeequationfortheutilityvalueisdefinedasfollows:
(1)
wherejistheindexofeachattribute,kistheoverallscalingconstant(greaterthanorequalto−1),u(…)istheoverallutilityfunctionoperator,kk,isthescalingconstantforattributejanduj(…)istheutilityfunctionoperatorforeachattribute[14].
2.Multi-criteriaevaluationofnaturalgassupplyoptions
2.1.ASPID–analysisandsynthesisofparametersunderinformationdeficiencymethod
“Uncertainty”:
“ambiguity,”“fuzziness”andothersimilarconceptsarequiteusualinmulti-criteriaevaluationofreallargescalesystems,timelongprojects,variantsofcrucialfinancialdecisionsandothercomplexobjects.Thus,itseemsrathernaturaltousetheflexiblelanguageandapparatusoffuzzysetstheoryforanewmulti-criteriadecisionmakingtechniqueexpoundingandrepresentingthetechnique’scomputerrealizati
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