the evolution of chinaus trade.docx
- 文档编号:12845838
- 上传时间:2023-06-08
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:17
- 大小:489.39KB
the evolution of chinaus trade.docx
《the evolution of chinaus trade.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《the evolution of chinaus trade.docx(17页珍藏版)》请在冰点文库上搜索。
theevolutionofchinaustrade
EVOLUTIONOFU.S.TRADEWITHCHINA
作者:
Orr,James,QuarterlyReview(01476580),01476580,Winter91/92,册16,发行4
来源---数据库:
AcademicSourcePremier
OverthecourseofthepastdecadeU.S.tradeflowswithChinahavecontrastedsharplywithoverallU.S.tradepatterns.WhiletheU.S.tradebalanceasawholedeterioratedduringthefirsthalfofthe1980s,ourtradewithChinaremainedroughlyinbalance.After1987,whentheoverallU.S.tradebalancebegantoimprove,asurgeinimportsfromChinaledtoasubstantialworseningintheU.S.bilateralbalancewithChina.Atpresent,ourtradedeficitwithChinahasrisentoroughly$12billion,asumexceededonlybyourdeficitwithJapan.
ThisarticleanalyzesdevelopmentsinU.S.tradewithChinasince1980.ItattributesthesurgeinU.SmanufacturedgoodsimportsfromChinainthesecondhalfofthedecadetosignificantchangesinChina'sforeigneconomicpolicies.Thecountryhassoughtbothtoimprovepricecompetitivenessbydevaluingitscurrencyandtoacquirecapitalandtechnologybyencouragingforeigninvestment.ThesepolicychangeshaveenabledChinatotakeadvantageofitsvastsupplyoflaborandtodevelopaninternationallycompetitiveexportsector.Between1985and1990,ChinaraiseditsshareofU.S.importsofmanufacturedgoodsandbecameasignificantsourceofrelativelylow-costconsumergoods.
OnecorollaryofthegrowthinU.S.importsfromChinahasbeentheshiftinthepatternofU.S.importsfromAsia.Inparticular,HongKong'sshareofU.S.manufacturedimportshasdeclinedasHongKongproducershaveincreasinglymovedprocessingandassemblyoperationstoChina.
TrendsinU.S.-Chinatrade
ThepatternofU.S.-ChinatradeduringthepastdecadediffersremarkablyfromthatofU.S.tradewiththerestoftheworld.TheoverallU.S.merchandisetradebalancesteadilyworsenedduringthefirsthalfofthe1980s,butU.S.bilateraltradewithChinaremainedroughlyinbalance(Chart1).Since1985,however,ourbilateraltradebalancewithChinahassteadilydeterioratedatthesametimethattheU.S.tradebalancewithnearlyallothermajortradingpartnershassubstantiallyimproved.
ThedeteriorationinourtradepositionwithChinaislargelyexplainedbytherapidgrowthinU.S.imports.Afterhavinggrownbyonly$3.5billionbetween1978and1985,U.S.importsfromChinaincreasedbynearly$15billionfrom1985to1991(Chart2).Since1987,U.S.importsfromChinahavegrownatanannualrateof35percent,aboutfivetimesasfastasoverallU.S.importgrowth.Incontrast,U.S.exportstoChinahaveexpandedbyabout11percentannuallysince1987,arateroughlyinlinewiththegrowthofoverallU.S.exportsoverthesameperiod.(n1)
AccompanyingtherapidgrowthinU.S.importsfromChinahasbeenasignificantshiftinthecompositionoftheseimports.Duringthefirsthalfofthe1980s,foodandindustrialsuppliesmadeupaboutone-halfofU.S.importsfromChina(Table1).Bycontrast,consumergoodsimportshavedominatedtherecentgrowthintrade,expandingtomorethanthree-fourthsofU.S.importsfromChinaby1990.Theshareoffoodandindustrialsuppliesby1990hadfallentoaround15percent.Consumergoodsimportshavegenerallybeeninrelativelyunsophisticatedproductcategories,particularlytoys,textilesandapparel,andtelephonesandradios.
OurgrowingtradeimbalancewithChinanotonlycontrastswithoveralltradepatternsbutalsorunscountertothesubstantialprogresstheUnitedStateshasmadeinreducingitstradedeficitwithotherAsianeconomies.(n2)Between1980and1987,theU.S.tradedeficitwithallAsianeconomiesrosefrom$15billionto$98billion(Table2).JapanandtheAsiannewlyincuscountries(NICs)werethemajorsourcesofthatdeficit.Since1987theoveralldeficitwiththeAsianeconomiesexcludingChinadecreasedbyabout$33billion,animprovementledbythedecliningdeficitswithJapanandtheAsianNICs.The$10billionincreaseinthedeficitwithChina,however,offsetalmostone-thirdofthisimprovement,andin1991,theU.S.deficitwithChinaaccountedforone-sixthoftheU.S.tradedeficitwithAsia.
SourcesofChina'simprovedinternationalcompetitiveness
InanalyzingthegrowthofU.S.tradewithChina,onemustrecognizethatuntilthelate1970sChinawaseffectivelyaclosedeconomy.Annuallevelsofexportsandimportswerepredeterminedinfive-yeareconomicplans,andtradepatternsdidnotreflectChina'srelativecompetitivenessindifferentproducts.Moreover,theexchangeratewasfixedandChinesefirmswereinsulatedfromworldpricemovements.China'sadoptionofan"opendoor"policyin1978signaledthebeginningofanoverhaulofitsforeigntradesystem.Thecountrysoughttoexpandtheroleofmarketforcesintradeandinvestmentdecisionsand,inparticular,topromotemanufacturedexports.
OnemajorchangeinChina'sforeigntradesystemhasinvolvedtheexchangerateofitscurrency,theyuan.(n3)Sincetheearly1980sChinahasactivelypursuedapolicyofimprovingthepricecompetitivenessofChinesegoodsbydevaluingtheyuan.TheeffectsofthispolicyonChina'spricecompetitivenessareseeninChart3,whichplotstherealvalueoftheyuanagainstthedollar.Between1980and1985,therealvalueoftheyuandepreciatedbyroughly50percentagainstthedollar.IndustrialcountriesanddevelopingAsianeconomiesotherthanChinaalsorecordedlargerealdepreciationsagainstthedollarduringthisperiod.Nevertheless,thedollar'ssharpfallover1985-88reversedearliertrendswithmostcountries,sothatatpresenttherealvalueofbothindustrialworldandotherAsiancurrenciesexceedstheir1980valuesagainstthedollar.Incontrast,Chineseauthoritieshaveactedtomaintainthecompetitivegainsmadeinthefirsthalfofthedecade.Inparticular,theyundertooklargedevaluationsin1990and1991thathavekepttheyuanstillroughly50percentbelowits1980levelrelativetothedollar.(n4)
Thislargecurrencydevaluationagainstthedollarduringthe1980shassignificantlyenhancedthecostadvantageenjoyedbyChineseproducers.Inparticular,thedevaluationoftheyuanhasenabledChinesesupplierstoavailthemselvesofthevastsupplyofinexpensive(whenmeasuredindollars)laborandtoexpandtheproductionandexportofgoodsrequiringlargeamountsoflow-skilledlabor.ComparingChina'slaborcostswiththoseofothercountriesunderscorestheChineseadvantage(Table3).Earningsofworkersinthemanufacturingsectoraveragedamere$.20perhourin1989.Earningsofworkersinfirmsprimarilyproducingmanufacturedgoodsforexportareestimatedtobeabouttwicethatlevel.Evenatthishigherlevel,however,Chineseearningsareonlyaboutone-fifthasmuchastheearningsofworkersinthemanufacturingsectorsoftheAsiannewlyindustrializedeconomiesandonetwentiethofthewageofcomparableU.S.workers.
Howeverdramaticthedifferencesinlaborcosts,thedevaluationoftheyuancannotaloneexplainthesharpexpansionofU.S.importsfromChinaoverthepastsixyears.Indeed,asTable3suggests,productioncostsinChinawerequitelowthroughoutthe1980s,althoughthegapwidenedovertime.Morelikely,China'sstrongexportperformanceinthesecondhalfofthe1980sresultedfromthecombinedeffectsofimprovedpricecompetitivenessandaseriesofpolicychangesintheforeigntradesectordesignedtoexpandexports.Thesechangesgaveindividualfirmsgreaterfreedomtoengageintrade,improvedtheallocationofforeignexchangebyallowingfirmstoretainandultimatelytotradetheirforeignexchangeearnings,andliberalizedtherulesgoverningforeigndirectinvestment(seebox).Improvedpricecompetitiveness,therefore,didnotbyitselfboosttrade;rather,itreinforcedtheeffectsontradeoftheoverallreformoftheforeigntradesystem.
China'srelaxationofrestrictionsonforeigndirectinvestmentwasoneofthemostimportantreformsthatspurredthedevelopmentofathrivingexportsector.TheinfusionofforeigncapitalandtechnologyhasenabledChina'smanufacturingsectortoexpandcurrentexportproductionandtodevelopproductionexpertise.Liberalizingforeigndirectinvestmentpromotedthisexportexpansionintwoways.First,Chinesefirmswereallowedtoassembleandexportgoodsmadefromimportedpartsandcomponents.ThesesamefirmswerefreedfrommanyofthetraderestrictionsimposedonotherdomesticChinesefirms.Second,"specialeconomiczones,"createdin1979,offeredforeignmultinationalsspecificincentivestoestablishplantsinChinaforthemanufactureandproductionofgoodsforexport.Chinainitiallysetasidefourgeographicalareasasspecialeconomiczones--threeinGuangdongprovinceadjacenttoHongKongandoneinFujianprovincedirectlyacrosstheFormosaStraitfromTaiwan--andaddedafifth,HainanIslandoffthecoastofsouthernChina,in1984.Foreigninvestmentwasfurtherpromotedin1984withthedesignationoffourteencoastalcitiesas"openareas"offeringforeignfirmsadvantagessimilartothoseinthespecialeconomiczones.
Althoughinformationonindividualsourcesofinvestmentinthezonesandopencoastalareasisnotavailable,dataonoveralltrendsshowarapidincreaseinforeigndirectinvestmentsincethemid-1980s.Between1979and1990Chinaattractedover$20billionofforeigndirectinvestment.Themajorityofthatinvestmentfollowedthesignificantliberalizationofrulesgoverningforeigninvestmentin1984(Chart4).Foreigninvestmenthasaccountedformorethan2percentoftotalplantandequipmentspendinginChinasince1984,anditsimportanceindomesticcapitalformationhasrisensteadilysincethe
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- the evolution of chinaus trade