美团点评深度解析美团的战略战术和能力圈 饮食.pdf

美团点评深度解析美团的战略战术和能力圈 饮食.pdf

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1、 | 2020 05 21 -W 03690.HK 1. 3 2. 2023 554 5 3-4 DAU 2 DAU 0.63 DAU ERP 100 120 O2O 2023 465 / / 341/213/-88 / / 2.9/3.8/2.6 2028 GTV 2019 GTV 2021 195 2021/22/23 159/300/465 EPS 3.19/5.61/8.41 / / 2023 30/25/30 PE 8409/1506/6378 16293 26% 2021 2021 10296 11462 195 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 97,5

2、29 113,540 155,619 200,748 252,294 yoy % 50% 16% 37% 29% 26% 2,236 1,656 15,882 29,953 46,462 yoy % 102% -26% 859% 89% 55% non-GAAP 4,657 4,191 18,776 33,174 50,005 EPS / 0.80 0.72 3.19 5.61 8.41 % 2% 2% 14% 21% 25% P/E 236.8 161.6 36.3 20.6 13.7 128.50 ( ) 670,729.03 ( ) 5,219.68 (%) 87.38 30 ( ) S

3、0680520010002 1 -W 03690.HK 19Q4 2020-03-31 2 -W 03690.HK 19Q3 2019-11-22 3 -W 03690.HK 2019-09-08 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 2019-05 2019-08 2019-11 2020-02 2020-05 -W 2020 05 21 P.2 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 82,135 98,298 132,229 184,882 258,766 97,529 113,540 155,619

4、200,748 252,294 13,396 28,633 53,155 93,973 150,540 65,208 77,324 98,329 122,172 148,961 677 1,447 1,984 2,559 3,216 18,819 19,297 22,441 25,025 28,253 9,591 11,132 12,886 15,583 18,624 8,446 8,880 9,674 10,983 12,307 275 315 400 497 606 4,985 4,845 5,197 5,857 6,525 58,196 56,770 63,804 72,269 85,7

5、80 2,609 0 0 0 0 49,878 51,894 52,209 52,973 53,987 2,680 3,194 19,977 36,711 56,248 9,450 9,764 10,024 10,310 10,625 25 25 25 25 25 5,376 4,485 5,563 7,031 8,684 107 0 0 0 0 32,700 36,142 34,910 33,685 32,467 2,762 3,169 19,952 36,687 56,223 预付账 款 1,762 913 1,122 1,357 1,622 526 1,513 4,071 6,734 9

6、,761 590 590 590 590 590 2,236 1,656 15,882 29,953 46,462 132,013 150,192 184,438 237,856 312,753 0 0 0 0 0 36,593 51,631 68,734 90,844 117,734 2,236 1,656 15,882 29,953 46,462 3,553 3,553 3,553 3,553 3,553 2,239 1,656 15,882 29,953 46,462 14,262 16,574 20,531 26,101 32,427 non-GAAP 4,657 4,191 18,7

7、76 33,174 50,005 18,778 31,505 44,650 61,190 81,754 EBITDA 7,254 10,690 29,180 47,771 69,348 3,366 4,795 6,057 7,411 8,957 EPS / 0.8 0.7 3.2 5.6 8.4 0 0 0 0 0 3,366 4,795 6,057 7,411 8,957 39,959 56,426 74,791 98,255 126,691 -58 -58 -58 -58 -58 0 0 0 0 0 260,360 260,360 260,360 260,360 260,360 -168,

8、248 -166,594 -150,713 -120,760 -74,298 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 92,054 93,708 109,590 139,543 186,004 132,013 150,134 184,380 237,798 312,695 % 50% 16% 37% 29% 26% EBITDA % 253% 47% 173% 64% 45% % 102% 15% 530% 84% 53% % 156% -10% 348% 77% 51% % 33% 32% 37% 39% 41% 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E

9、 % 5% 4% 12% 17% 20% -9180 5574 13194 33639 51405 ROE （% ） 2% 2% 14% 21% 25% -115491 2762 3169 19952 36687 5367 4846 4886 4497 5470 % 30% 38% 41% 41% 41% 62 220 0 0 0 % 43% 60% 68% 70% 68% 0 0 0 0 0 224% 190% 192% 204% 220% -4987 -2645 2605 6295 6027 224% 190% 192% 203% 219% 105869 391 2535 2894 322

10、1 -23439 -10174 2043 -9116 -10587 77% 80% 93% 95% 92% -2251 -2937 -3933 -5316 -6800 170.6 106.9 90.7 88.4 87.4 -15970 -6906 6290 -3540 -3501 7.2 7.4 8.4 8.6 8.6 1691 -238 -315 -260 -286 / -6909 -93 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 3.2 5.6 8.4 29295 1114 0 0 0 1.0 2.3 5.7 8.7 12.3 2305 3640 0 0 0 15.8 16.0 18.6 23.6 31

11、.3 28516 0 0 0 0 -855 0 0 0 0 P/E 236.8 161.6 36.3 20.6 13.7 -671 -2526 0 0 0 P/B 5.9 7.2 6.2 4.9 3.7 -3323 -3486 15237 24522 40818 EV/EBITDA 91.1 60.4 21.3 12.1 7.6 2020 05 21 P.3 . 7 . 7 1.1 . 8 1.2 . 13 1.3 . 14 . 16 2.1 . 16 2.2 . 21 . 23 3.1 . 24 3.1.1 . 24 3.1.2 . 26 3.1.3 . 30 3.1.4 . 36 3.1.

12、5 . 42 3.2 . 47 3.2.1 . 47 3.2.2 . 48 3.2.3 . 50 3.2.4 . 54 3.2.5 . 60 3.3 . 64 . 68 4.1 . 68 4.2 . 71 . 73 . 73 1 “ ” . 8 2 . 8 3 . 9 4 . 10 5 2019 . 10 6 2019 . 10 7 . 11 8 APP “ ” . 12 9 . 13 10 . 13 11 . 14 12 2018 10 . 15 13 . 16 2020 05 21 P.4 14 . 17 15 . 17 16 “ ” . 18 17 . 19 18 . 19 19 . 2

13、1 20 . 21 21 . 22 22 . 23 23 . 23 24 . 24 25 . 25 26 . 25 27 GTV . 25 28 . 25 29 . 25 30 . 25 31 . 26 32 20 . 26 33 . 27 34 . 27 35 . 27 36 . 28 37 . 28 38 . 28 39 . 29 40 . 29 41 2015 . 30 42 . 30 43 . 30 44 / . 31 45 / / . 31 46 GDP 2010 . 31 47 . 31 48 . 32 49 . 32 50 . 32 51 30% . 32 52 2028 8.5 . 33 53 2028 2.4 . 33 54 2019E . 33 55 2019E . 33 56 2019E . 34 57 2019 . 34 58 . 34 59 . 34 60 . 35 2020 05 21 P.5 61 . 35 62 2028 . 35 63 . 36 64 . 36 65 . 37 66 GMV . 37 67