1、“全球的投资银行正承受着越来越大的风险，也在设计着越来越复杂的分散风险的方法。”这究竟是会让人放心还是让人担心？AT LEAST since 1823, when Byrons Don Juan described “Jew Rothschild, and his fellow Christian Baring” as the “true Lords of Europe”, investment bankers have inspired awe, envy and, rightly or wrongly, a measure of disdain. Exactly 100 years ago
2、 the undisputed patriarch of the modern industry, J. Pierpont Morgan, stemmed the Panic of 1907, a financial crisis caused by unregulated trusts （the hedge funds of their day）. Acting, in effect, as lender of last resort from his Wall Street office, he was briefly feted before Americans realised the
3、 danger of having such power vested in one man. Cartoonists then mercilessly mocked him. After his death in 1913 the Federal Reserve was set up.不晚于1823年那时拜伦（Byron）在唐璜（Don Juan）中将“犹太人罗思柴尔德（Rothschild）和他的同伙基督徒巴林（Baring）”称为“欧洲真正的主宰”，投资银行家们博得了敬畏、羡慕以及一定程度的蔑视不管这正确与否。 正好100年前这个现代产业无可争议的鼻祖J皮尔庞特摩根（J. Pierpon
4、t Morgan）制止了1907年的大恐慌（the Panic of 1907）一场由非受监管信托（unregulated trusts）（当时的对冲基金（hedge funds）引起的金融危机。他在其华尔街的办公室中充当了实际上的最后贷款人的角色，受到了人们的追捧。其后不久，美国人意识到让一个人拥有如此的权力是多么的危险。当时的漫画家对他进行了无情的嘲弄。在他1913年死后，美联储（the Federal Reserve）就成立了。The investment-banking industry was further constrained during the Depression of
5、the 1930s, when Wall Street firms such as that founded by Morgan were split into commercial banks and securities houses. The lattertodays investment banksunderwrite stocks and bonds and advise companies on mergers and acquisitions, rather than collect deposits and make loans. In the 1980s and 1990s
6、they developed a reputation for gluttonous excess. But a lot has changed since then. 在上个世纪30年代的大萧条（the Depression of the 1930s）期间投资银行业受到进一步的抑制，华尔街的许多公司（比方说摩根创立的公司）被拆分为商业银行和证券交易所。后者即今天的投资银行，它承销股票和债券，并就企业合并和收购事宜为公司提供咨询服务，而不经营存、贷款业务。在上个世纪80和90年代它们得到了过于贪婪的名声。但从那时以来情况发生了很大的变化。Intensely private partnershi
7、ps have become publicly traded companies. Commercial banks such as Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase have muscled back into investment banking. And European warhorses such as Deutsche Bank, UBS and Credit Suisse have joined the race for global supremacy. The bets, and the profits, have got bigger, though
8、 investment banks are trying to keep quiet about that, for several reasons. 很大程度上私人合伙公司已经可以公开交易。诸如花旗集团（Citigroup） 、摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）这样的商业银行又挤回了投资银行业。欧洲老字号如：德意志银行（Deutsche Bank） 、瑞银集团（UBS）、瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse），也加入了争夺全球霸权的竞争。虽然投资银行基于几点理由试图对此保持沉默，赌注和收益却已越来越大。First, they are under more scrutiny. Wall
9、Street firms had their wings clipped by Eliot Spitzer, New Yorks former attorney-general, for plugging worthless shares during the dotcom era. Being publicly traded companies has tamed some egos, too. Star traders do not enjoy the same headroom on salaries （albeit very large salaries） as they did wh
10、en they were partners in the business. At UBS, a Swiss bank which in 2000 moved into the American equity markets by merging with PaineWebber, a brokerage, “fiefs” are explicitly banned. Richard Fuld, boss of Lehman Brothers, a fast-growing Wall Street firm, imposed a “one-firm culture” when it was s
11、pun off from American Express in 1994. Now, says Scott Freidheim, a top executive, Mr Fuld uses “culture” in speeches more often than any other word except “the”.首先，它们受到了更多的审查。华尔街的公司被纽约州前总检察长艾略特斯皮策（Eliot Spitzer）捆住了手脚，起因是这些公司在.com时代推广垃圾股票。成为可公开交易的公司也挫伤了些许自尊心。尽管交易明星们的薪水仍然很高，但薪水的上升空间与他们作为业务合伙人时相比逊色不少。
12、瑞银集团（UBS）是一家瑞士银行，在2000年通过与经纪公司普惠（PaineWebber）合并而进入美国股票市场。在瑞银集团，“封地”是被明确禁止的。莱曼兄弟公司（Lehman Brothers）是华尔街一家快速成长的公司，当它在1994年从美国运通公司（American Express）分割出来时，其老板理查德富尔德（Richard Fuld） 就强制推行“公司一体统筹的文化”。斯科特弗赖德海姆（Scott Freidheim）是一个高层管理人员，他说现在富尔德先生在演讲中使用“文化”这个词的频率比除了“the”之外的所有单词都要高。Meanwhile another group has o
13、vertaken the investment banks in the excess stakes: their money-spinning clients in the private-equity and hedge-fund industries. Already they throw the biggest parties, do the boldest deals and launch the most celebrated initial public offerings. The IPO of part of Blackstone, a private-equity grou
14、p, might well raise more money than Goldman Sachss did in 1999, when even the companys doormen and drivers became extremely rich.同时，要说到过分，另一个群体已经超过了投资银行：它们在私募股权和对冲基金业赚大钱的客户。他们已经举行了最大规模的派对，进行了最大胆的交易，发起了最著名的首次公开招股（IPO， initial public offering）。黑石（Blackstone）是一家私募股权集团,其部分的首次公开招股所筹集的资金甚至超过高盛公司（Goldman S
15、achs）在1999年全年的业绩那时即使是高盛公司的门卫和司机都赚得盆满钵满。（图表说明：Rich list财富榜Investment-banking revenue,by activity投资银行收入，按活动分类2006,$bn 年度：2006年，单位：十亿美元Advisory咨询业务 Debt underwriting 债务承销业务 Equity underwriting股票承销业务Goldman Sachs 高盛Morgan Stanley摩根士丹利JPMorgan摩根大通银行Credit Suisse*瑞士信贷*Citigroup 花旗集团Merrill Lynch 美林Deutsch
16、e Bank德意志银行Lehman Brothers莱曼兄弟公司Bank of America美国银行*Annualised using 01-03 以2001-2003年的收入折算年度收入Source: Dominion Bond Rating Service 资料来源：多美年债券评级服务公司）Yet when investment bankers discuss the fabulous fortunes accruing to these firms founders, they do so without envy. “Theirs is a truly pioneering role
17、,” says Anshu Jain, head of global markets at Deutsche Bank, one of the worlds top trading banks. “Pioneers in any industry get a disproportionate share of the spoils.”但当投资银行家们谈到这些公司创始人所积累的巨大财富时，他们一点也不嫉妒。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）是世界顶级的贸易银行之一，其全球市场业务总裁安苏贾殷（Anshu Jain）说：“他们扮演的是一个真正的先驱者的角色，任何行业的先驱者都会得到一份不成比
18、例的战利品。”Even if they are no longer the pioneers, the investment banks have played a crucial part in bringing about the extraordinary changes seen in the financial markets, starting in the 1980s and accelerating dramatically in the past five years. Technology and innovation have brought unprecedented
19、breadth, depth and richness to financial instruments. According to McKinsey, a consultancy, the stock of shares and public and private debt securities held in America grew from 2.4 times GDP in 1995 to 3.3 times in 2004. In Europe the increase was even more dramatic, albeit from a lower base. These
20、figures do not include derivatives, notional amounts of which traded privately, or “over-the-counter” securities, which had soared to $370 trillion by last June, from $258 trillion less than two years earlier, according to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS）. Given such torrid growth, the m
21、arkets are becoming increasingly vital to global financial stability. 投资银行即使不再是先驱者，它们在给金融市场带来显著变化的过程中仍然扮演着至关重要的角色。这种变化始于上世纪80年代，在过去的5年里明显加速。技术和创新使得金融工具的广度、深度和多样性达到了前所未有的水平。根据麦肯锡（McKinsey）（一家咨询公司）的研究，美国人持有的股票和公私债券的存量在1995年是国内生产总值的2.4倍，而到了2004年则达到3.3倍。而在欧洲，尽管起点较低，但增长的速度更快。这些数字还不包括金融衍生品或是场外交易证券。金融衍生品的名
22、义金额在私下交易。而根据国际结算银行（Bank for International Settlements，BIS）的报告，场外交易证券的交易金额从不到两年前的258万亿美元飙升到去年6月的370万亿美元。鉴于市场如此快速的发展，它们对全球金融稳定愈加重要。There have been thrills and spills along the way. The stockmarket crash of 1987 and the seizing up of credit markets after Russia defaulted in 1998 both exposed huge flaws
23、 in the industry, forcing central banks to step in to prevent what they feared might be lasting damage to the real economy. Even so, regulators reckon that on balance the growth of markets has been a good thing, making the financial system safer than more traditional forms of bank lending. The troub
24、le is that given the complexity of the new instruments and the range of clients and countries involved, they can never be absolutely sure that a monumental crisis is not brewing somewhere.这一路上充满了紧张刺激。1987年的股市崩溃和1998年俄罗斯拒绝履行偿债义务后信贷市场的停摆都暴露了该行业的巨大缺陷。这促使中央银行进行干涉，以避免可能对实际经济造成的持久伤害。虽然如此，监管机构还是认为市场的成长使得金融
25、系统比传统的银行贷款形式更加安全了，总的说来是一件好事。问题就在于：考虑到新工具的复杂性以及所涉及客户和国家的范围，监管者永远不可能绝对保证任何地方都没有酝酿中的巨大危机。What worries both bankers and regulators is not so much the threat from hedge funds or private-equity groups but the implications for the financial system of a possible collapse of an investment bank （or large comp
26、lex financial institution, as they clumsily call it）. At a time when Americas housing market has exposed the danger of overexcitement on Wall Street, it is worth exploring how these institutions are evolving, how they handle the risks attached to what they do, and how well those risks are spread aro
27、und the financial system. That is what this survey sets out to do. 让银行家和监管者担心的还不仅仅是来自对冲基金或私募股权集团的威胁，还有带有投资银行（或者按照他们的笨拙叫法：大而复杂的金融机构）崩溃可能的金融系统的可能影响。每当美国的房地产市场暴露出华尔街过度兴奋的危险时，如下这些问题就是值得探究的：这些机构是如何发展的?它们如何处理自身行为所带的风险？能否很好的在金融系统中分散风险？这就是本期调查报告准备讨论的问题。Risk-takers Anonymous匿名赌徒Investment banking is in a sta
28、te of evolution rather than revolution. The essence of the business has always been taking calculated （and sometimes miscalculated） risks. But now traders place bets in more places, with more clients and using more complicated gambling devices than ever before.投资银行业正处在稳步的发展之中，而不可能发生革命性的变化。一直以来，该行业的本
29、质就是要冒可预料（有时不可预料）的风险。但现在交易者让赌注更加分散、客户更多、使用的赌博策略也比以往任何时候都要复杂。Brokerage used to be described as a haulage business, lugging money, as a member of the Rothschild dynasty once put it, “from point A, where it is, to point B, where it is needed”. The idea of describing themselves as glorified delivery men
30、may well still appeal to the cynics on the trading floor who work with shirtsleeves rolled up and hail each other loudly in Brooklyn or mock cockney accents. But any haulage firm would be flabbergasted by the trading profits and returns on equity seen in investment banking in recent years, especiall
31、y among Wall Streets big “bulge-bracket” firms. Svilen Ivanov, head of capital markets at Boston Consulting Group, notes that earnings from capital-market-related activities at the top ten global investment banks have risen by almost two-thirds in two years, from $55 billion in 2004 to $90 billion last year. That sort of profit increase is comparable with Apples rewards for inventing the iPod, he points out. Yet in investment banking there is nothing nearly so
