1、由此，人民币在经历亚洲金融危机以来的稳定和实际升值以后，终于拉开了正式升值的序幕。根据各方面的分析，到2020年以前，人民币将处于长期升值的趋势之中。众所周知，汇率对进出口贸易具有较大的影响，因为汇率反映的是一种货币相对于另一种货币的价格，所以汇率的改变将直接传导给进出口商品和服务的价格，从而影响到进出口数量。本文研究的范围是人民币升值给进出口贸易带来的影响，重点研究2007 年以来人民币加速升值对进出口贸易带来的影响，包括正面影响、负面影响、出口、进口、进出口商品结构、贸易方式等。本研究基于权威部门的统计数据，利用国际贸易相关理论，采用实证和分析相结合的方法，试图全面分析人民币升值尤其是加速
2、升值对我国进出口贸易的影响，以及面对人民币升值应该的一些措施。Abstract Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. At the same time, RMB exchange rate adjusts to $1 = 8.11 RMB with an appreciation by 2%. Thus, af
3、ter the Asian financial crisis in the experience of the stability and a real appreciation, RMB finally starts the prelude of appreciation. According to the analysis, by 2020, the RMB will be long before the upward trend. As is known, rate of exchange has great influence on import and export trade, b
4、ecause the exchange rate is a kind of currency reflects the relative to another currency exchange. So the change of exchange rate will directly affect import and export prices of goods and services, thus affecting import and export quantity. This research is about the influence of RMB appreciation f
5、or import and export trade, including the impact of positive effects and negative effects, import, export, import and export commodity structure and ways of trade, etc. This research is based on the authority of the statistics department, using the theory of international trade, empirical and analys
6、is using the method of combining, attempts to comprehensively analyze the appreciation of RMB appreciation on China in particular, to accelerate the import and export trade, and some of the measures should be taken to handle RMB appreciation.INTRODUCTIONIn different period of economic development, C
7、hinas RMB exchange rate mechanism adopted different. In July 2005, Chinas RMB exchange rate formation mechanism was reformed with a reference to basket of currencies of mediation to implement a managed floating exchange rate system. Since then, RMB went in to a long-term slow appreciation track. Esp
8、ecially since 2007, the RMB appreciation has accelerated the pace of record highs. To December 24, 2007, the RMB against the U.S. dollar breakthrough 7.3315:1and has appreciated 6.09%. And Chinas import and export trade has also experienced a tortuous history. Since the reform and opening up policy,
9、 Chinas import and export went into the track of healthy development, especially in recent years, Chinas foreign trade volume, quality and structure have achieved degrees of improvement. In 2002, China became the worlds fifth largest trading nation. In 2004 China made it 6years earlier to implement
10、a long term goal to gain a 10000 billon foreign trade, and finally the total number was 1.15477 trillion U.S. dollars. Chinas foreign trade shares of 12% of the world as the worlds third largest trading power, behind the United States and Germany. Since then, Chinas import and export trade continues
11、 to lead a double-digit growth. In 2006, Chinas foreign trade volume reached 1.7604 trillion U.S dollars, in 2007 breaking two trillion U.S dollars, the total foreign trade reached 2.167 trillion U.S. dollars. How much impact on Chinas import and export trade does RMB appreciation have? What are the
12、 positive effects and negative effects? What kind of influence does RMB appreciation have on Chinas import and export quantity, quality, amount, structure and ways of trade? This article will focus in January 2007 since the revaluation, for example, from the perspective of empirical and statistical
13、to make an analysis of RMB appreciation on Chinas import and export trade. As is known, rate of exchange has great influence on import and export trade, because the exchange rate is a kind of currency reflects the relative to another currency exchange. So the change of exchange rate will directly af
14、fect import and export prices of goods and services, thus affecting import and export quantity. RMB appreciation on Chinas import and export trade can be divided into positive and negative effects of both. RMB appreciations positive impact on the import and export trade1.1 To some extent to improve
15、the trade environment in ChinaFor a long time, China implements mercantile system, that is to bring down production costs, expand product in the international market share and exports to earn more foreign exchange. Under the guidance of this line of thought, Chinas trade surplus grows, foreign excha
16、nge reserves have risen steadily, and only years of effort China became the worlds first, and its amount is larger and larger than the second one. To some extent, surplus and foreign exchange reserves indicates that national prosperity and the improvement of Chinas international status. However, fro
17、m another perspective, a long time high trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves, means Chinas foreign trade environment can easily deteriorate and become the object of attack countries, and even become a scapegoat for economic problems abroad and a tool for foreign political force. Value of the
18、RMB is undervalued is the general view of the international community. And if RMB appreciates, Chinas export growth will slow down some and the import growth will be accelerated, which can benefit the balance of external and within economy and release the rub between trading partners, at the same ti
19、me, it will not lead to a greater negative impact on national economic growth. RMB appreciation can ease the pressure of the trade balance and reduce the risk of macroeconomic possible. Appreciation of the RMB is conducive to lowering the excess of domestic exports of low-efficiency products, the re
20、lease of the expected appreciation, slowing growth rate of foreign exchange reserves, reducing macroeconomic potential inflationary, excess liquidity and the risk of U.S. dollar assets. 1.2 Enhance the trade competitiveness of enterprises and promote trade growth modeAfter revaluation, the dollar pr
21、ice of exports increased, foreign consumers to buy products from China have to pay a higher cost. The competitive advantage of cheap Chinese products will gradually disappear and the profit margins of exporters will be reduced and instead, companies will seek new competitive advantages and create ne
22、w core competencies. In this case, those corporations with low-tech and low added value, poor management, high cost and low efficiency of enterprises and products will be pushed out of overseas markets, and competitive enterprises will actively improve the operation and management, in pursuit of tec
23、hnology, brand and marketing strategy to win, relying on science and technology, brand design and product quality for competitive advantage. Meanwhile, the RMB appreciation would reduce the cost of imports of advanced equipment, cost of funds to purchase of advanced equipment continues to lower, so
24、our ability to buy more advanced equipment increased and that equipment can help to promote Chinas export manufacturing sector and export of technical progress in upgrading of the structure. RMB appreciation has reduced the cost of Chinese Enterprises Overseas Investment, which is beneficial for ent
25、erprises going abroad to do industry transfer and technology learning, and enlarge the proportion of trade, meanwhile, help less developed areas of the processing trade and spur domestic industrial structure and the structure of export trade to upgrade.RMB appreciation reduced the cost of Chinese en
26、terprises in overseas investment, which will help enterprises to go abroad to carry out industrial transfer and technological learning, and expand the proportion of general trade, driven in less developed areas of processing trade, promote domestic industrial structure and export trade, upgrading of
27、 the structure. Chinas processing trade is facing industrial upgrading and regional transfer of dual task. In the eastern coastal areas, especially the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta region, the processing trade is very well developed, In many areas almost to the saturation-free developme
28、nt, through industrial and technological upgrading, improving the grades and value-added processing trade rate; But in Midwest the development of processing trade were relatively stagnant, need to expand trade scale, promote local economic development. Moderate appreciation of RMB, total processing
29、trade will be echoed and promote the upgrading and regional metastasis.1.3 control Low-end exports and curb vicious competition, and promote the sustainable development of Chinas import and export tradeSuch problems like high cost in energy and resource, high pollution, low added value, deterioratin
30、g terms of trade exist in Chinas foreign trade growth in exports and foreign investment. At the same time, resources and elements concentrate excessively to export industries and national economic growth is too dependent on external demand. And domestic demand, especially consumption growth is relat
31、ively slow. These problems exist in large part due to the elements of production for export in China, including energy, resources, labor and public input prices, cost of pollution, are underestimated.If RMB appreciates, those products with low value-added price-sensitive commodities （especially in t
32、extiles led） and the SMEs with thin profit will suffer the greatest damage. Therefore, through the adjustment of RMB exchange rate reform can help to adjust the enterprise exports （especially textiles export order）, change the current situation of vicious price competition, to a certain extent, the allocation of resources will achieve survival of the fittest.Moderate appreciation of RMB equivalent to enhance the export-related factor prices,
