1、to sustain the steady march of prosperityenjoyed in previous decades in mostdeveloped economies.But long-term pessimism is unwarranted.With the recent convergence of atransformative set of technologies,economies are entering a new era in whichartificial intelligence （AI） has the potentialto overcome
2、 the physical limitations ofcapital and labor and open up new sourcesof value and growth.Indeed, Accenture analyzed 12 developedeconomies and found that AI has thepotential to double their annual economicgrowth rates by 2035.To avoid missing out on this opportunity,policy makers and business leaders
3、 mustprepare for, and work toward, a futurewith artificial intelligence. They must do sonot with the idea that AI is simply anotherproductivity enhancer. Rather, they mustsee AI as the tool that can transform ourthinking about how growth is created.3 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of gr
4、owthTHE NEW FACTO R OF PRODUCTIONAcross the globe, rates of gross domestic product （GDP） growth have been shrinking.Moreover, this has been true for three decades. Key measures of economic efficiency aretrending sharply downward, while labor-force growth across the developed world is largelystagnant
5、. It is even in decline in some countries （see Figures 1 to 4）.Given this poor outlook, commentators That missing element is how newsay that a stagnant economy is the “new technologies affect growth in the economy.normal.” On an even more pessimistic note,economist Robert Gordon argues thatproductiv
6、ity growth over the next quartercentury will continue at the sluggish pacewe have experienced since Hebelieves that the past two centuries of“Great Inventions,” such as the steamshipand telegraph, are unlikely to be repeated.And this deficit of innovation, combinedTraditionally, capital and labor ar
7、e the“factors of production” that drive growth inthe economy （see Figure 5）. Growth occurswhen the stock of capital or labor increase,or when they are used more efficiently. Thegrowth that comes from innovations andtechnological change in the economy iscaptured in total factor productivity （TFP）.wit
8、h unfavorable demographic trends,flagging educational attainment andrising wealth inequality, will sloweconomic progress.Economists have always thought of newtechnologies as driving growth throughtheir ability to enhance TFP. This madesense for the technologies that we haveSo, are we experiencing th
9、e end of growthand prosperity as we know itseen until now. The great technologicalbreakthroughs over the last centuryelectricity, railways and ITboostedAs grim as much of the data undoubtedly productivity dramatically but did notis, it misses an important part of the story. create entirely new workf
10、orces.4 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthToday, we are witnessing the take-off of another transformative set oftechnologies, commonly referred to asartificial intelligence （see “What is artificialintelligence”）. Many see AI as similar topast technological inventions. If we believ
11、ethis, then we can expect some growth, butnothing transformational.But what if AI has the potential to be notjust another driver of TFP, but an entirelynew factor of production How can this beThe key is to see AI as a capital-labor hybrid.AI can replicate labor activities at muchgreater scale and sp
12、eed, and to even performsome tasks beyond the capabilities ofhumans. Not to mention that in some areasit has the ability to learn faster than humans,if not yet as deeply. For example, by usingvirtual assistants, 1,000 legal documents canbe reviewed in a matter of days instead oftaking three people s
13、ix months to Similarly, AI can take the form of physicalcapital such as robots and intelligentmachines. And unlike conventional capital,such as machines and buildings, it canactually improve over time, thanks to itsself-learning capabilities.Based on our analysis and modeling, wecan illustrate what
14、happens when AI isseen as a new factor of production ratherthan just a productivity enhancer. Theimpact on projected growth for the UnitedStates, for example, is dramatic. As Figure6 shows, the first scenario is business-as-usual, assuming no AI effect. The secondindicates the traditional view of AI
15、 as a TFPenhancer where it has a limited impacton growth. The third scenario shows whathappens when AI can act as a new factor ofproductionthere is a transformative effecton growth. This ability of AI to complementand enhance traditional factors ofproduction is where its true potential lies.The adva
16、nce of AI is leading us to rethink fundamental economic relationships and how value is created.DAVID LEHRER, CEO, CONATIX5 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthDeveloped economies: The end of growthOn a variety of key measures, economic data seems to support a moodof long-term pessim
17、ism.FIGURE 1: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTSince the 1980s, GDP growth has steadily slowed in many large economies.JAPANFRANCEUNITED STATESITALYUNITED KINGDOMGERMANY 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sReal GDP growth （%, annual average over the period）NB: Data points across the dashed lines indicate the average for th
18、e six countries.Source: Oxford Economics6 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthFIGURE 2: PRODUCTIVITYA key measure of how well an economy uses its existing capital and people is “total factorproductivity” （TFP）. Data show a weakening of TFP, especially in the past 10 years.Total fact
19、or productivity （%, annual average over the period） The Conference Board, Total Economic Database7 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthFIGURE 3: CAPITAL EFFICIENCYThe marginal capital efficiency rate, an indicator of the productivity of capital such asmachines and buildings, has ste
20、adily dropped over a 50-year period.50251966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016Marginal capital efficiency （%, 6-year moving average） European Commission, Annual Macroeconomic DatabaseFIGURE 4: LABORAs populations age and birth rates slow, fewer people are available to pick up the sla
21、ck inthe workforce.UNITED STATESSPAIN UNITED BELGIUM SWEDEN AUSTRIA FRANCE NETHERLANDS ITALY FINLAND GERMANYKINGDOMWorking age population （%, annual average growth over the period）8 | Why artificial intelligence is the future of growthFIGURE 5: THE AI GROWTH MODELOur model adapts the traditional gro
22、wth model by including AI as a factor of production.TRADITIONAL GROWTH MODELCapital Labor TFPGROWTHADAPTED GROWTH MODELCapital Labor TFP AI indicates the change in that factor. Accenture analysisFIGURE 6: THREE GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR THE UNITED STATES ECONOMYAI as a new factor of production can lead t
23、o significant growth opportunitiesfor the United States economy.7,408897 897UNITED STATES GVAAI CWOHNA TT EISNATRSTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEAI is not a new field; much of its theoretical and technological underpinningwas developed over the past 70 years by computer scientists such as AlanTuring, Marvin M
24、insky and John McCarthy. Today, the term refers to multipletechnologies that can be combined in different ways to:Sense Comprehend ActComputer vision and audio Natural language An AI system canprocessing, for example, processing and inference take action throughare able to actively engines can enabl
25、e technologies such asperceive the world around AI systems to analyze expert systems andthem by acquiring and and understand the inference engines, orprocessing images, sounds information collected. undertake actions in theand speech. The use of This technology is used physical world. Auto-pilotfaci
26、al recognition at border to power the language features and assisted-control kiosks is one translation feature of braking capabilities inpractical example of how it search engine results. cars are examples of this.can improve productivity.All three capabilities are underpinned by the ability to learn from experience and adaptover time. AI already exists to some degree in many industries but the extent to which it isbecoming part of our daily lives is set to grow fast.Two key factors are enabling AI growth:1. Unlimited access to computing power.Public cloud
