1、Risk Based Decision Making:Practical Application of Risk Assessment建立在决策上的风险：风险评定的实际应用,Structured Decision Making 结构化决策,Helps to overcome these”in built”weaknesses帮助克服这些“建立改变”的弱点Design a SIMPLE process设计一个简单的流程Use it until it becomes habit使用这个流程，直到成为习惯Refine and improve but KEEP IT SIMPLE!精炼和改进但是保持简
2、单化！Learn from your mistakes从你的错误中学习,Structured Decision Making：Buzz Group 结构化决策：小组讨论,Review and reflect on what has been discussed回顾和深思什么是被讨论的Brainstorm all of the essential elements of a good decision making process头脑风暴：一个好的决策过程包含哪些必要元素Individually(post its)个人（即时贴）In your groups 小组Design a process
3、flow for structured decision making设计一个结构化决策的流程,Risk Based Decision Making 基于风险的决策,A structured approach 一个结构化的方法/途径Understand the situation first首先了解情况Hold on to the BIG PICTURE坚持大局为重Be“comfortable”with your level of uncertainty你的不确定性的水平是“舒畅的”Seek the advice and wisdom of others寻找他人的建议和学习他人的智慧THEN
4、assess risk然后评估风险THEN manage risk然后管理风险,Understand the“Problem”理解“问题”,Obtain“HARD”data and information 得到确实的数据和信息THE WHO谁THE WHAT什么THE WHY为什么THE HOW如何THE WHEN什么时候BUT AVOID“PARALYSIS BY ANALYSIS”避免出现“分析麻痹”,Always Be DATA DRIVEN 常以数据为驱动,Base decisions on facts,not assumptions做决策时基于事实而非设想 Data must be数
5、据必须Accurate精准Reliable可靠Unbiased公正Well presented很好地被展示,Keep the BIG PICTURE保持大局,Avoid getting sucked into detail early on 避免过早陷入以下细节The 5Ws and the HOW5W和如何Magnitude of the problem or situation考量问题和情况Single or multiple batches?单个还是多批One or more plants?单个还是多个工厂Direct patient risk?直接的患者危险Regulatory or“
6、compliance”risk?监管还是法规风险Risk to supply chain?对供应链有风险吗,Peeling the Onion 剥洋葱,Purpose目的Encourage investigation leaders to“undress”the problem鼓励调查研究的领导们卸去问题的表面Avoid getting into excessive detail too soon避免过早陷入大量的细节中,Establish your Level of“Uncertainty”建立你自己的“不确定”级别,Accept that you will never FULLY unde
7、rstand the problem请接受：你永远不会完全理解问题There will always be some uncertainty总会有一些不确定The smaller the level of uncertainty the better the decision不确定的级别越小，做出的决定越好The investigation must reduce uncertainty to an“acceptable”level调查和研究必须可以把不确定降低到“可接受的”的水平,Key Questions to Ask 要询问的关键问题,“What do I know?”(HARD dat
8、a,indisputable facts)“我知道什么？”（硬数据，不争的事实）“What assumptions can I safely make?”(based on experience,intuition and“soft data”)“我能做什么可靠的预测？”（基于经验，直觉和软数据）“What DONT I KNOW?”“我不知道什么？”,A Simple Fact一个简单的事实,YOU CANT MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY!你不可能在高级别的不确定性下做出正确的决定！,Ask the RIGH
9、T Questions 问正确的问题ACTIVELY LISTEN 积极地聆听,Questions to ask 要提问的问题OPEN:To gather information开始：收集信息PROBING:To focus on specific issues调查：集中在具体问题上CLOSED(yes or no):To obtain agreement结束（是/否）：得出一致结论 SUMMARY:To confirm understanding总结：确认理解HYPOTHETICAL:To generate ideas假想：产生主意,Questioning Skills:提问的技巧,Ask
10、the RIGHT people 向正确的人提问Ask a broad audience问广大听众OPERATORS and SUBJECT EXPERTS操作员和专家Generalist多面手Explore differences of opiniondont ignore探索不同的意见不要忽视KEEP AN OPEN MIND抱着易于接受新鲜事物的心态And listen然后倾听,Assess Risk 评定风险,What is Risk?什么是风险？“Risk is the PROBABILITY of harm and the SERVERITY of HARM”“风险是发生危害的可能
11、性以及危害带来的严重性”Risk Identification?风险的定义？“What can actually go wrong?”“什么是会出错的?”,Risk Analysis 风险分析,What are the possible consequences(SERVERITY)of harm to the PATIENT and the BUSINESS?对病人和业务会带来何种结果（严重性）的危害？What is the PROBABILITY of OCCURRENCE?事件发生的机率是多少？What is the LIKELIHOOD of DETECTION?发现的可能性是多少？,
12、Risk Analysis 风险分析,After every Risk Analysis 在每个风险分析之后Take“time out”暂停Ask yourself“DOES THIS FEEL RIGHT”问自己“这样觉得对吗？”Professionally从专业上Morally从道德上Ethically从伦理上Beware of the“Management Hat”谨防扣上“管理帽子”,Risk Evaluation 风险评估,Comparison of risk vs.criteria 对照风险和标准Assign PROBABILITY and SERVERITY分配机率和严重性May
13、 be quantitative or qualitative可能定量的或定性的,Risk Control 风险控制,Is the risk unacceptable?风险是不能被接受的吗？What can be done to可以做些什么来Reduce risk?降低风险Eliminate risk?消除风险Must be PROPORTIONATE!必须成一定的比例Risks风险Benefits益处Resources资源,Risk Reduction 风险降低,Mitigating SEVERITY 减轻严重性Reducing PROBABILITY降低发生的机率Increasing DE
14、TECTABILITY(CARE!)提高检测能力(小心!)and then RISK ACCEPTANCE然后风险接受,FinallyALWAYS BE SYSTEMATIC 最后，保持系统化,Look at symptoms 查看症状Get good quality data得到好的数据Analyze and understand分析和理解Consult others咨询他人Problem statement陈述问题Investigate and risk assess调查和评定风险DECISION!做决策！,Make the Decision but Remember做决策但请记得,The
15、“ripple”affect.Be prepared for resistance and disagreement“脉动”影响。做好接受阻力和不同意见的准备。Think long and hard about communication沟通是长期而艰苦的FACE to FACE is the only way.Dont be a coward 面对面交谈是唯一的方法。不要胆怯。Top down vs.bottom up自上而下 vs.自下而上Involve stakeholders in the decision break them in slowly让利益相关人参与到决策中来慢慢地训练他
16、们Document everything.Remember your“little black book”把所有记录都文档化。记住你有一本“私人笔记本”,One Last Word最后一些话,The process may appear“linear”but decision making isnt流程看起来可能是“直线型的”但是做决策并不是Decision making is a“recursive process做决策是一个“循环的”过程You move up and down the decision making process做决策的过程需要反复上上下下,Whole Brain Th
17、inking:整个大脑在思考,Research has shown that most of us only use 4-5%of our intellectual capacity研究显示大多数人只使用了的才智Dont worryits not your fault.Youve been educated that way不必担心。这不是你的错。你是被那样教育惯的。Schools focus on“left brain”thinking(limited capacity)学校集中在使用“左脑”思考问题（有限的容量）The unlimited capacity of“right brain”l
18、argely ignored“右脑”拥有无穷的容量确大部分被忽视了,Right Brain Thinking:Tools and Techniques 右脑思考：工具和技巧,Lateral thinking 横向思维Brain storming头脑风暴6 Hats Thinking帽子思维Mind Mapping思维导图And more还有更多,Essential Messages 精华建议,Remember,our brains are designed for speed not accuracy记住，我们的大脑思考速度快但准确度不高Be systematic.Practice-refine-improve-practiceBUT KEEP IT SIMPLE!系统化：实践精炼改进实践。但是要保持简单！Look after your brain and it will look after you照顾好你的大脑，它也会照顾好你Learn from your mistakes and those of others从你的和他人的错误中学习,
