1、发展经济学developmenteconomicsRobert Fogels forecasting Chinese economy in 2040发展经济学 development economics讲课人：李实本课程的结构1发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变11研究范畴12发展的测度13研究方法14历史演变2发展与增长理论21增长与发展的差异22增长理论： Harrod-Dmar model; Solow model; convergence: unconditional and conditional. 23新增长理论24人口增长与经济发展25经济发展与人类发展3发展与收入分配31收入分
2、配的现实与理论32收入决定机制与因素分析33经济发展与收入差距34经济增长与收入分配35中国收入分配的变化趋势4发展中国家中的贫困问题41绝对贫困与相对贫困42贫困线的设定43贫困标准的选择：收入还是消费44贫困的度量：贫困发生率、贫困距和加权贫困距45中国的贫困状态5发展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本51劳动剩余与两部门模型52劳动力市场中工资决定机制53劳动力市场中歧视问题54中国农民工的工资与歧视状态的研究55劳动力流动与城乡差距56教育、健康与经济发展6土地与经济发展61土地产权与租赁制度62土地租赁合同理论63土地产权制度理论7资本市场与经济发展71信贷市场的不完善性72农村信贷市场的
3、功能与发展73非正规信贷市场74资本市场的制度与信贷市场的发展8保险与发展81保险的功能82完善的保险模型83保险的局限性：信息的不对称性84保险的执行困难9国际贸易与经济发展91国际贸易的基本理论92比较优势理论93世界贸易格局94贸易政策和发展战略10制度与经济发展101新制度经济学对经济发展的启示102政府与市场的作用103经济改革与经济发展11发展经济学的未来方向111理论还是经验研究？112中国经济发展的经验如何上升到一般的经济发展理论1发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1.1研究对象（DE是什么）What is economic development? (1)Economic d
4、evelopment is the development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants.(2)The process whereby the real per capita income of a country increases over a long period of time, subject to the stipulations that the number of people below an absolute poverty line d
5、oes not increase and that the distribution of income does not become more unequal. (3)Economic development is a means to make mass people out of poverty. What development economics studies? DE studies the economic structure and behavior of the poor (less developed) countries (Lewis, 1984). Developme
6、nt Economics (DE) studies the economic transformation of developing countries (Debraj Ray, 1998). The major task of DE is to explore the possibilities of emancipation from poverty for developing economies (Yujiro Hayami, 2001). DE is about the big issues: how economies and societies grow and change
7、(N. Stern, 2001). Backward underdevelopment less developed countries poor countries emergent countries developing economies. 1.2 研究内容（研究什么）(1) 理解现在世界各国发展的不平衡性。(2) 理解发展中国家现在的问题需要理解发达国家的发展经验，具有比较的意义。(3) 对前人的发展理论要加以研究。(4) 发展涉及到很多层面， 1.3 发展的测度（measurement of development）GDP or GDP per capita 是否是衡量发展程度的最
8、好指标？ 它在国际比较中的缺陷: 发展中国家GDP低估的问题； PPP方法来修正GDP； 人类发展指数（HDI）的意义和应用。China rank of HDI in the world, 1970-20101.4 研究方法(1) 理论研究与经验研究（theoretical and empirical approach） (2) 发展微观经济学与发展宏观经济学（development microeconomics and development macroeconomics）(3) 纯粹的经济分析还是多学科研究1.5 历史演变(1)古典经济学是当时的发展经济学(2)在20世纪40年代后期，现代
9、发展经济学形成。Capital accumulation, as the necessary requirement, was the central focus of the models. The Harrod-Domar equation, although originally formulated for conditions of full growth in an industrial economy, was applied to estimate capital requirements in developing countries. Other early models
10、of development strategy also featured capitalaccumulation: Rostows stages of growth, 1.Traditional society 2.Preconditions for take-off 3.Take-off 4.Drive to maturity 5.Age of High mass consumption Nurkses balanced growth, The theory hypotheses that the government of any underdeveloped country needs
11、 to make large investments in a number of industries simultaneously. This would consequently enlarge the market size and provide an incentive for the private sector to invest.Rosenstein-Rodans external economies and big push,This theory is an investment theory which stresses the conditions of take-o
12、ff. The argumentation is quite similar to the balanced growth theory but emphasis is put on the need for a big push. The investments should be of a relatively high minimum in order to reap the benefits of external economies. Only investments in big complexes will result in social benefits exceeding
13、social costs. High priority is given to infrastruc-tural development and industry, and this emphasis will lead to governmental development planning and influence.Lewiss unlimited supply of labor and dual-sector modelThe process of economic growth is inextricably linked to the growth of capitalist su
14、rplus, that is as long as the the capitalist surplus increases, the national income also increases raising the growth of the economy. The increase in capitalist surplus is linked to the use of more and more labor which is assumed to be in surplus in case of this model. This process of capital accumu
15、lation does come to an end at some point. This point is where capital accumulation catches up with population so that there is no longer any surplus labor left.Prebisch-Myrdal-Singer hypotheses about terms of trade and import substitutionThe thesis postulates that terms of trade, between primary pro
16、ducts and manufactured goods, deteriorate in time. Countries that export commodities (developing countries) in time would import fewer manufactured goods relative to a given level of exports.Leibensteins critical minimum effort thesis,Critical minimum effort theory is one of the balanced growth theo
17、ries. It talks about how a minimum amount of push is required by an economy for it to be set on the path of development. This push can be in the form of investments. The minimum amount of effort that is required is critical for the economy to move towards development hence this theory is called crit
18、ical minimum effort. Because of the high population in underdeveloped countries the capital accumulation and labour supply are not sufficient to increase the per capita income.Chenerys two-gap model.Two-gap model (Two-gap Model), is the developing countries to achieve the savings gap and foreign exc
19、hange gaps in the theory of the equilibrium model. The model is through the use of external resources in developing countries, to play the role of government in the same time, adjustment of domestic economic structure to adapt to the introduction of external resources. It reflects the introduction o
20、f external resources in developing countries, for easing the scarcity of domestic resources is important. Two-gap model of the basic equation: I-S = M-X I-S is the difference between investment and savings, known as the savings gap M-X is the difference between imports and exports, known as the fore
21、ign exchange gap adjusted for the purpose of each variable is to balance the equation.A.Hirschman, Strategy of Economic Development (1958). Unbalanced growthContrary to the theory of balanced growth, in Hirschmans opinion, the real bottleneck is not the shortage of capital, but lack of entrepreneuri
22、al abilities. Potential entrepreneurs are hindered in their decision-making by institutional factors: either group considerations play a -great role and hinder the potential entrepreneur, or entrepreneurs aim at personal gains at the cost of others and are thus equally detrimental to development. In
23、 view of the lack of enterpreneurial abilities there is a need for a mechanism of incentive and pressure which will automatically result in the required decisions. According to Hirschman, not a balanced growth should be aimed at, but rather existing imbalances whose symptoms are profit and lossesmus
24、t be maintained. Investments should not be spread evenly but concentrated in such projects in which they cause additional investments because of their backward and forward linkages without being too demanding on entrepreneurial abilities. Manufacturing industries and import substitutions are relevan
25、t examples. These first investments initiate further investments which are made by less qualified entrepreneurs. Thus, the strategy overcomes the bottleneck of entrepreneurial ability. The theory gives no hints as to how the attitude of entrepreneurs and their institutional influence will be changed
26、 in time.P. Rosenstein-Roden, Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and Southeastern Europe,” Economic Journal (June-September, 1943). H. Leibenstein, Economic backwardness and economic growth (1957). R. Nelson, “ A theory of the low-level equilibrium trap in underdeveloped economies,” AER (Dec.
27、1956). W. Rostow, The stages of economic growth (1960). R. Nurkse, Problems of capital formation in underdeveloped countries (1953). Structuralist analysis: rigidities, lags, shortage and surpluses, low elasticities of supply and demand. G. Myrdal. Economic theory and underdeveloped regions(1957). R
28、. Prebisch, “The economic development of Latin America and Its principal problems”, Economic Bulletin for Latin America 7 (1950). H. Singer, “ Gains and losses from trade and investment in underdeveloped countries,” AER (may 1950). (3)在20世纪60年代后期至70年代初期，发展经济学更加注重贫困和收入分配。增长的不平衡性，注重农村发展；人力资本的形成，对人力资源的
29、研究；适用技术，而是最新技术的引进。Furthermore, in the 1960s the initial concentration on physical capital accumulation was giving way to the concept of investment in humancapital and its implications for development. It was increasinglyrecognized that development depended on productive human agentswho, through thei
30、r acquisition of knowledge, better health and nutrition,and increase in skills, could raise total factor productivity.（4）70年代至80年代，新古典经济学的重新崛起：对政策导致的市场扭曲的批评，对非市场失灵的批评，对政府控制的批评，from “get prices right” to “get policies right”, 市场、价格、激励成为主题。内向型发展战略转向外向型（出口导向性）战略，价格稳定和控制通货膨胀成为首选目标，大力推进国有企业的私有化。注意到发展中国家之
31、间的差异性，总体增长模型被国别的微观化模型所取代，国别的研究和经验研究受到越来越多的重视，新古典经济学的基本原理被应用到发展中国家的政策研究。老发展经济学家是不承认新古典经济学可以用于发展中国家，而新发展经济学家不仅认为新古典经济学可以用于发展中国家，而且认为发展经济学不能成为一个专门的学科。If the first generation of development economists was visionary anddedicated to grand theories and general strategies, the second generationwas almost mo
32、ralistic, dedicated to a somber realism grounded onfundamental principles of neoclassical economics. Harberger could sayto the governments of developing countries, Economics is good foryou-and by economics, he meant neoclassical analysis as the basisfor policymaking (Harberger 1993).Once it is recognized that individ
