报告显示人工智能将大幅提高生产率.docx
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报告显示人工智能将大幅提高生产率.docx
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报告显示人工智能将大幅提高生产率
Lastupdatedat10:
00amon25thDecember2020
报告显示人工智能将大幅提高生产率
ByMarkPurdyandPaulDaugherty
CONTENTS
Thenewfactorofproduction4
ThreechannelsofAI-ledgrowth12
FactoringinAI15
ClearingthepathtoanAIfuture21
2|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth
Increasesincapitalandlaborarenolonger
drivingthelevelsofeconomicgrowththe
worldhasbecomeaccustomedtoanddesires.
Fortunately,anewfactorofproductionisonthe
horizon,anditpromisestotransformthebasisof
economicgrowthforcountriesacrosstheworld.
Therehasbeenmarkeddeclineinthe
abilityofincreasesincapitalinvestment
andinlabortopropeleconomicprogress.
Thesetwoleversarethetraditionaldrivers
ofproduction,yettheyarenolongerable
tosustainthesteadymarchofprosperity
enjoyedinpreviousdecadesinmost
developedeconomies.
Butlong-termpessimismisunwarranted.
Withtherecentconvergenceofa
transformativesetoftechnologies,
economiesareenteringanewerainwhich
artificialintelligence(AI)hasthepotential
toovercomethephysicallimitationsof
capitalandlaborandopenupnewsources
ofvalueandgrowth.
Indeed,Accentureanalyzed12developed
economiesandfoundthatAIhasthe
potentialtodoubletheirannualeconomic
growthratesby2035.
Toavoidmissingoutonthisopportunity,
policymakersandbusinessleadersmust
preparefor,andworktoward,afuture
withartificialintelligence.Theymustdoso
notwiththeideathatAIissimplyanother
productivityenhancer.Rather,theymust
seeAIasthetoolthatcantransformour
thinkingabouthowgrowthiscreated.
3|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth
THENEWFACTOROFPRODUCTION
Acrosstheglobe,ratesofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthhavebeenshrinking.
Moreover,thishasbeentrueforthreedecades.Keymeasuresofeconomicefficiencyare
trendingsharplydownward,whilelabor-forcegrowthacrossthedevelopedworldislargely
stagnant.Itisevenindeclineinsomecountries(seeFigures1to4).
Giventhispooroutlook,commentatorsThatmissingelementishownew
saythatastagnanteconomyisthe“newtechnologiesaffectgrowthintheeconomy.
normal.”Onanevenmorepessimisticnote,
economistRobertGordonarguesthat
productivitygrowthoverthenextquarter
centurywillcontinueatthesluggishpace
wehaveexperiencedsinceHe
believesthatthepasttwocenturiesof
“GreatInventions,”suchasthesteamship
andtelegraph,areunlikelytoberepeated.
Andthisdeficitofinnovation,combined
Traditionally,capitalandlaborarethe
“factorsofproduction”thatdrivegrowthin
theeconomy(seeFigure5).Growthoccurs
whenthestockofcapitalorlaborincrease,
orwhentheyareusedmoreefficiently.The
growththatcomesfrominnovationsand
technologicalchangeintheeconomyis
capturedintotalfactorproductivity(TFP).
withunfavorabledemographictrends,
flaggingeducationalattainmentand
risingwealthinequality,willslow
economicprogress.
Economistshavealwaysthoughtofnew
technologiesasdrivinggrowththrough
theirabilitytoenhanceTFP.Thismade
senseforthetechnologiesthatwehave
So,areweexperiencingtheendofgrowth
andprosperityasweknowit
seenuntilnow.Thegreattechnological
breakthroughsoverthelastcentury—
electricity,railwaysandIT—boosted
Asgrimasmuchofthedataundoubtedlyproductivitydramaticallybutdidnot
is,itmissesanimportantpartofthestory.createentirelynewworkforces.
4|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth
Today,wearewitnessingthetake-
offofanothertransformativesetof
technologies,commonlyreferredtoas
artificialintelligence(see“Whatisartificial
intelligence”).ManyseeAIassimilarto
pasttechnologicalinventions.Ifwebelieve
this,thenwecanexpectsomegrowth,but
nothingtransformational.
ButwhatifAIhasthepotentialtobenot
justanotherdriverofTFP,butanentirely
newfactorofproductionHowcanthisbe
ThekeyistoseeAIasacapital-laborhybrid.
AIcanreplicatelaboractivitiesatmuch
greaterscaleandspeed,andtoevenperform
sometasksbeyondthecapabilitiesof
humans.Nottomentionthatinsomeareas
ithastheabilitytolearnfasterthanhumans,
ifnotyetasdeeply.Forexample,byusing
virtualassistants,1,000legaldocumentscan
bereviewedinamatterofdaysinsteadof
takingthreepeoplesixmonthsto
Similarly,AIcantaketheformofphysical
capitalsuchasrobotsandintelligent
machines.Andunlikeconventionalcapital,
suchasmachinesandbuildings,itcan
actuallyimproveovertime,thankstoits
self-learningcapabilities.
Basedonouranalysisandmodeling,we
canillustratewhathappenswhenAIis
seenasanewfactorofproductionrather
thanjustaproductivityenhancer.The
impactonprojectedgrowthfortheUnited
States,forexample,isdramatic.AsFigure
6shows,thefirstscenarioisbusiness-as-
usual,assumingnoAIeffect.Thesecond
indicatesthetraditionalviewofAIasaTFP
enhancerwhereithasalimitedimpact
ongrowth.Thethirdscenarioshowswhat
happenswhenAIcanactasanewfactorof
production—thereisatransformativeeffect
ongrowth.ThisabilityofAItocomplement
andenhancetraditionalfactorsof
productioniswhereitstruepotentiallies.
TheadvanceofAIisleadingustorethinkfundamentaleconomicrelationshipsandhowvalueiscreated.
DAVIDLEHRER,CEO,CONATIX
5|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth
Developedeconomies:
Theendofgrowth
Onavarietyofkeymeasures,economicdataseemstosupportamood
oflong-termpessimism.
FIGURE1:
GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT
Sincethe1980s,GDPgrowthhassteadilyslowedinmanylargeeconomies.
JAPAN
FRANCE
UNITEDSTATES
ITALY
UNITEDKINGDOM
GERMANY
1980s1990s2000s2010s
RealGDPgrowth(%,annualaverageovertheperiod)
NB:
Datapointsacrossthedashedlinesindicatetheaverageforthesixcountries.
Source:
OxfordEconomics
6|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth
FIGURE2:
PRODUCTIVITY
Akeymeasureofhowwellaneconomyusesitsexistingcapitalandpeopleis“totalfactor
productivity”(TFP).DatashowaweakeningofTFP,especiallyinthepast10years.
JAPAN
FRANCE
UNITEDSTATES
ITALY
UNITEDKINGDOM
GERMANY
Totalfactorproductivity(%,annualaverageovertheperiod)
Source:
TheConferenceBoard,TotalEconomicDatabase
7|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth
FIGURE3:
CAPITALEFFICIENCY
Themarginalcapitalefficiencyrate,anindicatoroftheproductivityofcapitalsuchas
machinesandbuildings,hassteadilydroppedovera50-yearperiod.
50
JAPAN
UNITEDSTATES
GERMANY
UNITEDKINGDOM
25
0
19661971197619811986199119962001200620112016
Marginalcapitalefficiency(%,6-yearmovingaverage)
Source:
EuropeanCommission,AnnualMacroeconomicDatabase
FIGURE4:
LABOR
Aspopulationsageandbirthratesslow,fewerpeopleareavailabletopickuptheslackin
theworkforce.
0
UNITED
STATES
SPAIN
UNITEDBELGIUMSWEDENAUSTRIAFRANCENETHERLANDSITALYFINLANDGERMANY
KINGDOM
JAPAN
Workingagepopulation(%,annualaveragegrowthovertheperiod)
Source:
OxfordEconomics
8|Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth
FIGURE5:
THEAIGROWTHMODEL
OurmodeladaptsthetraditionalgrowthmodelbyincludingAIasafactorofproduction.
TRADITIONALGROWTHMODEL
CapitalLaborTFP
GROWTH
ADAPTEDGROWTH
MODEL
CapitalLaborTFPAI
NB:
indicatesthechangeinthatfactor.
Source:
Accentureanalysis
FIGURE6:
THREEGROWTHSCENARIOSFORTHEUNITEDSTATES’ECONOMY
AIasanewfactorofproductioncanleadtosignificantgrowthopportunities
fortheUnitedStates’economy.
7,408
897897
UNITEDSTATES’GVA
AI
CWOHNATTEISNATRSTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
AIisnotanewfield;muchofitstheoreticalandtechnologicalunderpinning
wasdevelopedoverthepast70yearsbycomputerscientistssuchasAlan
Turing,MarvinMinskyandJohnMcCarthy.Today,thetermreferstomultiple
technologiesthatcanbecombinedindifferentwaysto:
SenseComprehendAct
ComputervisionandaudioNaturallanguageAnAIsystemcan
processing,forexample,processingandinferencetakeactionthrough
areabletoactivelyenginescanenabletechnologiessuchas
perceivetheworldaroundAIsystemstoanalyzeexpertsystemsand
thembyacquiringandandunderstandtheinferenceengines,or
processingimages,soundsinformationcollected.undertakeactionsinthe
andspeech.TheuseofThistechnologyisusedphysicalworld.Auto-pilot
facialrecognitionatbordertopowerthelanguagefeaturesandassisted-
controlkiosksisonetranslationfeatureofbrakingcapabilitiesin
practicalexampleofhowitsearchengineresults.carsareexamplesofthis.
canimproveproductivity.
Allthreecapabilitiesareunderpinnedbytheabilitytolearnfromexperienceandadapt
overtime.AIalreadyexiststosomedegreeinmanyindustriesbuttheextenttowhichitis
becomingpartofourdailylivesissettogrowfast.
TwokeyfactorsareenablingAIgrowth:
1.Unlimitedaccesstocomputingpower.
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